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 Statistical Learning


Effective Learning of Probabilistic Models for Clinical Predictions from Longitudinal Data

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Such information includes: the database in modern hospital systems, usually known as Electronic Health Records (EHR), which store the patients' diagnosis, medication, laboratory test results, medical image data, etc.; information on various health behaviors tracked and stored by wearable devices, ubiquitous sensors and mobile applications, such as the smoking status, alcoholism history, exercise level, sleeping conditions, etc.; information collected by census or various surveys regarding sociodemographic factors of the target cohort; and information on people's mental health inferred from their social media activities or social networks such as Twitter, Facebook, etc. These health-related data come from heterogeneous sources, describe assorted aspects of the individual's health conditions. Such data is rich in structure and information which has great research potentials for revealing unknown medical knowledge about genomic epidemiology, disease developments and correlations, drug discoveries, medical diagnosis, mental illness prevention, health behavior adaption, etc. In real-world problems, the number of features relating to a certain health condition could grow exponentially with the development of new information techniques for collecting and measuring data. To reveal the causal influence between various factors and a certain disease or to discover the correlations among diseases from data at such a tremendous scale, requires the assistance of advanced information technology such as data mining, machine learning, text mining, etc. Machine learning technology not only provides a way for learning qualitative relationships among features and patients, but also the quantitative parameters regarding the strength of such correlations.


Stronger Data Poisoning Attacks Break Data Sanitization Defenses

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Machine learning models trained on data from the outside world can be corrupted by data poisoning attacks that inject malicious points into the models' training sets. A common defense against these attacks is data sanitization: first filter out anomalous training points before training the model. Can data poisoning attacks break data sanitization defenses? In this paper, we develop three new attacks that can all bypass a broad range of data sanitization defenses, including commonly-used anomaly detectors based on nearest neighbors, training loss, and singular-value decomposition. For example, our attacks successfully increase the test error on the Enron spam detection dataset from 3% to 24% and on the IMDB sentiment classification dataset from 12% to 29% by adding just 3% poisoned data. In contrast, many existing attacks from the literature do not explicitly consider defenses, and we show that those attacks are ineffective in the presence of the defenses we consider. Our attacks are based on two ideas: (i) we coordinate our attacks to place poisoned points near one another, which fools some anomaly detectors, and (ii) we formulate each attack as a constrained optimization problem, with constraints designed to ensure that the poisoned points evade detection. While this optimization involves solving an expensive bilevel problem, we explore and develop three efficient approximations to this problem based on influence functions; minimax duality; and the Karush-Kuhn-Tucker (KKT) conditions. Our results underscore the urgent need to develop more sophisticated and robust defenses against data poisoning attacks.


Hunting for Discriminatory Proxies in Linear Regression Models

arXiv.org Machine Learning

A machine learning model may exhibit discrimination when used to make decisions involving people. One potential cause for such outcomes is that the model uses a statistical proxy for a protected demographic attribute. In this paper we formulate a definition of proxy use for the setting of linear regression and present algorithms for detecting proxies. Our definition follows recent work on proxies in classification models, and characterizes a model's constituent behavior that: 1) correlates closely with a protected random variable, and 2) is causally influential in the overall behavior of the model. We show that proxies in linear regression models can be efficiently identified by solving a second-order cone program, and further extend this result to account for situations where the use of a certain input variable is justified as a "business necessity". Finally, we present empirical results on two law enforcement datasets that exhibit varying degrees of racial disparity in prediction outcomes, demonstrating that proxies shed useful light on the causes of discriminatory behavior in models.


Closed-Loop GAN for continual Learning

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Sequential learning of tasks using gradient descent leads to an unremitting decline in the accuracy of tasks for which training data is no longer available, termed catastrophic forgetting. Generative models have been explored as a means to approximate the distribution of old tasks and bypass storage of real data. Here we propose a cumulative closed-loop generator and embedded classifier using an AC-GAN architecture provided with external regularization by a small buffer. We evaluate incremental learning using a notoriously hard paradigm, single headed learning, in which each task is a disjoint subset of classes in the overall dataset, and performance is evaluated on all previous classes. First, we show that the variability contained in a small percentage of a dataset (memory buffer) accounts for a significant portion of the reported accuracy, both in multi-task and continual learning settings. Second, we show that using a generator to continuously output new images while training provides an up-sampling of the buffer, which prevents catastrophic forgetting and yields superior performance when compared to a fixed buffer. We achieve an average accuracy for all classes of 92.26% in MNIST and 76.15% in FASHION-MNIST after 5 tasks using GAN sampling with a buffer of only 0.17% of the entire dataset size. We compare to a network with regularization (EWC) which shows a deteriorated average performance of 29.19% (MNIST) and 26.5% (FASHION). The baseline of no regularization (plain gradient descent) performs at 99.84% (MNIST) and 99.79% (FASHION) for the last task, but below 3% for all previous tasks. Our method has very low long-term memory cost, the buffer, as well as negligible intermediate memory storage.


Margin-based Parallel Corpus Mining with Multilingual Sentence Embeddings

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Machine translation is highly sensitive to the size and quality of the training data, which has led to an increasing interest in collecting and filtering large parallel corpora. In this paper, we propose a new method for this task based on multilingual sentence embeddings. Our approach uses an encoder-decoder trained over an initial parallel corpus to build multilingual sentence representations, which are then incorporated into a new margin-based method to score, mine and filter parallel sentences. In contrast to previous approaches, which rely on nearest neighbor retrieval with a hard threshold over cosine similarity, our proposed method accounts for the scale inconsistencies of this measure, considering the margin between a given sentence pair and its closest candidates instead. Our experiments show large improvements over existing methods. We outperform the best published results on the BUCC shared task on parallel corpus mining by more than 10 F1 points. We also improve the precision from 48.9 to 83.3 on the reconstruction of 11.3M English-French sentence pairs of the UN corpus. Finally, filtering the English-German ParaCrawl corpus with our approach, we obtain 31.2 BLEU points on newstest2014, an improvement of more than one point over the best official filtered version.


A Survey on Natural Language Processing for Fake News Detection

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Fake news detection is a critical yet challenging problem in Natural Language Processing (NLP). The rapid rise of social networking platforms has not only yielded a vast increase in information accessibility but has also accelerated the spread of fake news. Given the massive amount of Web content, automatic fake news detection is a practical NLP problem required by all online content providers. This paper presents a survey on fake news detection. Our survey introduces the challenges of automatic fake news detection. We systematically review the datasets and NLP solutions that have been developed for this task. We also discuss the limits of these datasets and problem formulations, our insights, and recommended solutions.


Distributed ReliefF based Feature Selection in Spark

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Feature selection (FS) is a key research area in the machine learning and data mining fields, removing irrelevant and redundant features usually helps to reduce the effort required to process a dataset while maintaining or even improving the processing algorithm's accuracy. However, traditional algorithms designed for executing on a single machine lack scalability to deal with the increasing amount of data that has become available in the current Big Data era. ReliefF is one of the most important algorithms successfully implemented in many FS applications. In this paper, we present a completely redesigned distributed version of the popular ReliefF algorithm based on the novel Spark cluster computing model that we have called DiReliefF. Spark is increasing its popularity due to its much faster processing times compared with Hadoop's MapReduce model implementation. The effectiveness of our proposal is tested on four publicly available datasets, all of them with a large number of instances and two of them with also a large number of features. Subsets of these datasets were also used to compare the results to a non-distributed implementation of the algorithm. The results show that the non-distributed implementation is unable to handle such large volumes of data without specialized hardware, while our design can process them in a scalable way with much better processing times and memory usage.


A Method For Dynamic Ensemble Selection Based on a Filter and an Adaptive Distance to Improve the Quality of the Regions of Competence

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Abstract-- Dynamic classifier selection systems aim to select a group of classifiers that is most adequate for a specific query pattern. This is done by defining a region around the query pattern and analyzing the competence of the classifiers in this region. However, the regions are often surrounded by noise which can difficult the classifier selection. This fact makes the performance of most dynamic selection systems no better than static selections. In this paper we demonstrate that the performance of dynamic selection systems end up limited by the quality of the regions extracted. Thereafter, we propose a new dynamic classifier selection system that improves the regions of competence in order to achieve higher recognition rates. Results obtained from several classification databases show the proposed method not only significantly increase the recognition performance, but also decreases the computational cost. Multiple Classifier Systems/Ensemble of Classifiers have been widely studied in the past years as an alternative to increase efficiency and accuracy in pattern recognition problems [1], [2].


Can automated smoothing significantly improve benchmark time series classification algorithms?

arXiv.org Machine Learning

We assess whether using six smoothing algorithms (moving average, exponential smoothing, Gaussian filter, Savitzky-Golay filter, Fourier approximation and a recursive median sieve) could be automatically applied to time series classification problems as a preprocessing step to improve the performance of three benchmark classifiers (1-Nearest Neighbour with Euclidean and Dynamic Time Warping distances, and Rotation Forest). We found no significant improvement over unsmoothed data even when we set the smoothing parameter through cross validation. We are not claiming smoothing has no worth. It has an important role in exploratory analysis and helps with specific classification problems where domain knowledge can be exploited. What we observe is that the automatic application does not help and that we cannot explain the improvement of other time series classification algorithms over the baseline classifiers simply as a function of the absence of smoothing.


Data-driven Perception of Neuron Point Process with Unknown Unknowns

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Identification of patterns from discrete data time-series for statistical inference, threat detection, social opinion dynamics, brain activity prediction has received recent momentum. In addition to the huge data size, the associated challenges are, for example, (i) missing data to construct a closed time-varying complex network, and (ii) contribution of unknown sources which are not probed. Towards this end, the current work focuses on statistical neuron system model with multi-covariates and unknown inputs. Previous research of neuron activity analysis is mainly limited with effects from the spiking history of target neuron and the interaction with other neurons in the system while ignoring the influence of unknown stimuli. We propose to use unknown unknowns, which describes the effect of unknown stimuli, undetected neuron activities and all other hidden sources of error. The maximum likelihood estimation with the fixed-point iteration method is implemented. The fixed-point iterations converge fast, and the proposed methods can be efficiently parallelized and offer computational advantage especially when the input spiking trains are over long time-horizon. The developed framework provides an intuition into the meaning of having extra degrees-of-freedom in the data to support the need for unknowns. The proposed algorithm is applied to simulated spike trains and on real-world experimental data of mouse somatosensory, mouse retina and cat retina. The model shows a successful increasing of system likelihood with respect to the conditional intensity function, and it also reveals the convergence with iterations. Results suggest that the neural connection model with unknown unknowns can efficiently estimate the statistical properties of the process by increasing the network likelihood.