One primary task of population health analysis is the identification of risk factors that, for some subpopulation, have a significant association with some health condition. Examples include finding lifestyle factors associated with chronic diseases and finding genetic mutations associated with diseases in precision health. We develop a combined semantic and machine learning system that uses a health risk ontology and knowledge graph (KG) to dynamically discover risk factors and their associated subpopulations. Semantics and the novel supervised cadre model make our system explainable. Future population health studies are easily performed and documented with provenance by specifying additional input and output KG cartridges.

Humans are the final decision makers in critical tasks that involve ethical and legal concerns, ranging from recidivism prediction, to medical diagnosis, to fighting against fake news. Although machine learning models can sometimes achieve impressive performance in these tasks, these tasks are not amenable to full automation. To realize the potential of machine learning for improving human decisions, it is important to understand how assistance from machine learning models affects human performance and human agency. In this paper, we use deception detection as a testbed and investigate how we can harness explanations and predictions of machine learning models to improve human performance while retaining human agency. We propose a spectrum between full human agency and full automation, and develop varying levels of machine assistance along the spectrum that gradually increase the influence of machine predictions. We find that without showing predicted labels, explanations alone do not statistically significantly improve human performance in the end task. In comparison, human performance is greatly improved by showing predicted labels (>20% relative improvement) and can be further improved by explicitly suggesting strong machine performance. Interestingly, when predicted labels are shown, explanations of machine predictions induce a similar level of accuracy as an explicit statement of strong machine performance. Our results demonstrate a tradeoff between human performance and human agency and show that explanations of machine predictions can moderate this tradeoff.

The typical pipeline for a supervised machine learning project involves firstly the collection of a significant sample of labelled examples typically referred to as training data. Depending on whether the labels are continuous or categorical, the supervised learning task is known as regression or classification respectively. Next, once the training data is sufficiently clean and complete, it is used to directly build a predictive model using the machine learning algorithm of choice. The predictive model is then used to label new unlabelled examples, and if the labels of the new examples are known a priori by the user (but not used by the learning algorithm) then the predictive accuracy of the model can be evaluated. Different models can therefore be directly compared. In the usual case, the training data is "real", i.e. the model is learned directly from labelled examples that were collected specifically for that purpose. However, quite frequently, modifications are made to the training data after it is collected. For example, it is standard practice to remove outlier examples and normalise numeric values. Moreover, the machine learning algorithm itself may specify modifications to the training data.

Accurate prediction of disease trajectories is critical for early identification and timely treatment of patients at risk. Conventional methods in survival analysis are often constrained by strong parametric assumptions and limited in their ability to learn from high-dimensional data, while existing neural network models are not readily-adapted to the longitudinal setting. This paper develops a novel convolutional approach that addresses these drawbacks. We present MATCH-Net: a Missingness-Aware Temporal Convolutional Hitting-time Network, designed to capture temporal dependencies and heterogeneous interactions in covariate trajectories and patterns of missingness. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first investigation of temporal convolutions in the context of dynamic prediction for personalized risk prognosis. Using real-world data from the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative, we demonstrate state-of-the-art performance without making any assumptions regarding underlying longitudinal or time-to-event processes attesting to the model's potential utility in clinical decision support.

Food packaging labels provide important information for public health, such as allergens and use-by dates. Off-the-shelf Optical Character Verification (OCV) systems are good solutions for automating food label quality assessments, but are known to under perform on complex data. This paper proposes a Deep Learning based system that can identify inadequate images for OCV, due to their poor label quality, by employing state-of-the-art Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) architectures, and practical Bayesian inference techniques for automatic self-annotation. We propose a practical domain adaptation procedure based on k-means clustering of CNN latent variables, followed by a k-Nearest Neighbour classification for handling high label variability between different dataset distributions. Moreover, Supervised Learning has proven useful in such systems but manual annotation of large amounts of data is usually required. This is practically intractable in most real world problems due to time/labour constraints. In an attempt to address this issue, we introduce a self-annotating prediction model based on Self-Training of a Bayesian CNN, that leverages modern variational inference methods of deep models. In this context, we propose a new inverse uncertainty weighting technique that encourages the Self-Training model to learn from more informative data over time, potentially preventing it from becoming lazy by only selecting easy examples to learn from. An experimental study is presented illustrating the superior performance of the proposed approach over standard Self-Training, and highlighting the importance of predictive uncertainty estimates in safety-critical domains.

In this paper, we consider estimating the parametric components of index volatility models, whose variance function has semiparametric form with two common index structures: single index and multiple index. Our approach applies the first- and second-order Stein's identities on the empirical mean squared error (MSE) to extract the direction of true signals. We study both low-dimensional setting and high-dimensional setting under finite moment condition, which is weaker than existing literature and makes our estimators applicable even for some heavy-tailed data. From our theoretical analysis, we prove that the statistical rate of convergence has two components: parametric rate and nonparametric rate. For the parametric rate, we achieve $\sqrt{n}$-consistency for low-dimensional setting and optimal/sub-optimal rate for high-dimensional setting. For the nonparametric rate, we show it's asymptotically bounded by $n^{-4/5}$ under both settings when the mean function has bounded second derivative, so it only contributes high-order terms. Simulation results also back our theoretical conclusions.

The matching of multiple objects (e.g. shapes or images) is a fundamental problem in vision and graphics. In order to robustly handle ambiguities, noise and repetitive patterns in challenging real-world settings, it is essential to take geometric consistency between points into account. Computationally, the multi-matching problem is difficult. It can be phrased as simultaneously solving multiple (NP-hard) quadratic assignment problems (QAPs) that are coupled via cycle-consistency constraints. The main limitations of existing multi-matching methods are that they either ignore geometric consistency and thus have limited robustness, or they are restricted to small-scale problems due to their (relatively) high computational cost. We address these shortcomings by introducing a Higher-order Projected Power Iteration method, which is (i) efficient and scales to tens of thousands of points, (ii) straightforward to implement, (iii) able to incorporate geometric consistency, and (iv) guarantees cycle-consistent multi-matchings. Experimentally we show that our approach is superior to existing methods.

Strong regulations in the financial industry mean that any decisions based on machine learning need to be explained. This precludes the use of powerful supervised techniques such as neural networks. In this study we propose a new unsupervised and semi-supervised technique known as the topological hierarchical decomposition (THD). This process breaks a dataset down into ever smaller groups, where groups are associated with a simplicial complex that approximate the underlying topology of a dataset. We apply THD to the FICO machine learning challenge dataset, consisting of anonymized home equity loan applications using the MAPPER algorithm to build simplicial complexes. We identify different groups of individuals unable to pay back loans, and illustrate how the distribution of feature values in a simplicial complex can be used to explain the decision to grant or deny a loan by extracting illustrative explanations from two THDs on the dataset.

We present a probabilistic model for unsupervised alignment of high-dimensional time-warped sequences based on the Dirichlet Process Mixture Model (DPMM). We follow the approach introduced in (Kazlauskaite, 2018) of simultaneously representing each data sequence as a composition of a true underlying function and a time-warping, both of which are modelled using Gaussian processes (GPs) (Rasmussen, 2005), and aligning the underlying functions using an unsupervised alignment method. In (Kazlauskaite, 2018) the alignment is performed using the GP latent variable model (GP-LVM) (Lawrence, 2005) as a model of sequences, while our main contribution is extending this approach to using DPMM, which allows us to align the sequences temporally and cluster them at the same time. We show that the DPMM achieves competitive results in comparison to the GP-LVM on synthetic and real-world data sets, and discuss the different properties of the estimated underlying functions and the time-warps favoured by these models.

Recent years have witnessed the rising popularity of Natural Language Processing (NLP) and related fields such as Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Machine Learning (ML). Many online courses and resources are available even for those without a strong background in the field. Often the student is curious about a specific topic but does not quite know where to begin studying. To answer the question of "what should one learn first," we apply an embedding-based method to learn prerequisite relations for course concepts in the domain of NLP. We introduce LectureBank, a dataset containing 1,352 English lecture files collected from university courses which are each classified according to an existing taxonomy as well as 208 manually-labeled prerequisite relation topics, which is publicly available. The dataset will be useful for educational purposes such as lecture preparation and organization as well as applications such as reading list generation. Additionally, we experiment with neural graph-based networks and non-neural classifiers to learn these prerequisite relations from our dataset.