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 Statistical Learning


The Effect of Heterogeneous Data for Alzheimer's Disease Detection from Speech

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Speech datasets for identifying Alzheimer's disease (AD) are generally restricted to participants performing a single task, e.g. describing an image shown to them. As a result, models trained on linguistic features derived from such datasets may not be generalizable across tasks. Building on prior work demonstrating that same-task data of healthy participants helps improve AD detection on a single-task dataset of pathological speech, we augment an AD-specific dataset consisting of subjects describing a picture with multi-task healthy data. We demonstrate that normative data from multiple speech-based tasks helps improve AD detection by up to 9%. Visualization of decision boundaries reveals that models trained on a combination of structured picture descriptions and unstructured conversational speech have the least out-of-task error and show the most potential to generalize to multiple tasks. We analyze the impact of age of the added samples and if they affect fairness in classification. We also provide explanations for a possible inductive bias effect across tasks using model-agnostic feature anchors. This work highlights the need for heterogeneous datasets for encoding changes in multiple facets of cognition and for developing a task-independent AD detection model.


Sample Efficient Stochastic Variance-Reduced Cubic Regularization Method

arXiv.org Machine Learning

We propose a sample efficient stochastic variance-reduced cubic regularization (Lite-SVRC) algorithm for finding the local minimum efficiently in nonconvex optimization. The proposed algorithm achieves a lower sample complexity of Hessian matrix computation than existing cubic regularization based methods. At the heart of our analysis is the choice of a constant batch size of Hessian matrix computation at each iteration and the stochastic variance reduction techniques. In detail, for a nonconvex function with $n$ component functions, Lite-SVRC converges to the local minimum within $\tilde{O}(n+n^{2/3}/\epsilon^{3/2})$ Hessian sample complexity, which is faster than all existing cubic regularization based methods. Numerical experiments with different nonconvex optimization problems conducted on real datasets validate our theoretical results.


Counterfactual Learning from Human Proofreading Feedback for Semantic Parsing

arXiv.org Machine Learning

In semantic parsing for question-answering, it is often too expensive to collect gold parses or even gold answers as supervision signals. We propose to convert model outputs into a set of human-understandable statements which allow non-expert users to act as proofreaders, providing error markings as learning signals to the parser. Because model outputs were suggested by a historic system, we operate in a counterfactual, or off-policy, learning setup. We introduce new estimators which can effectively leverage the given feedback and which avoid known degeneracies in counterfactual learning, while still being applicable to stochastic gradient optimization for neural semantic parsing. Furthermore, we discuss how our feedback collection method can be seamlessly integrated into deployed virtual personal assistants that embed a semantic parser. Our work is the first to show that semantic parsers can be improved significantly by counterfactual learning from logged human feedback data.


Global optimization of expensive black-box models based on asynchronous hybrid-criterion with interval reduction

arXiv.org Machine Learning

In this paper, a new sequential surrogate-based optimization (SSBO) algorithm is developed, which aims to improve the global search ability and local search efficiency for the global optimization of expensive black-box models. The proposed method involves three basic sub-criteria to infill new samples asynchronously to balance the global exploration and local exploitation. First, to capture the promising possible global optimal region, searching for the global optimum with genetic algorithm (GA) based on the current surrogate models of the objective and constraint functions. Second, to infill samples in the region with sparse samples to improve the global accuracy of the surrogate models, a grid searching with Latin hypercube sampling (LHS) with the current surrogate model is adopted to explore the sample space. Third, to accelerate the local searching efficiency, searching for a local optimum with sequential quadratic programming (SQP) based on the local surrogate models in the reduced interval, which involves some samples near the current optimum. When the new sample is too close to the existing ones, the new sample should be abandoned, due to the poor additional information. According to the three sub-criteria, the new samples are placed in the regions which have not been fully explored and includes the possible global optimum point. When a possible global optimum point is found, the local searching sub-criterion captures the local optimum around it rapidly. Numerical and engineering examples are used to verify the efficiency of the proposed method. The statistical results show that the proposed method has good global searching ability and efficiency.


Lagged correlation-based deep learning for directional trend change prediction in financial time series

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Trend change prediction in complex systems with a large number of noisy time series is a problem with many applications for real-world phenomena, with stock markets as a notoriously difficult to predict example of such systems. We approach predictions of directional trend changes via complex lagged correlations between them, excluding any information about the target series from the respective inputs to achieve predictions purely based on such correlations with other series. We propose the use of deep neural networks that employ step-wise linear regressions with exponential smoothing in the preparatory feature engineering for this task, with regression slopes as trend strength indicators for a given time interval. We apply this method to historical stock market data from 2011 to 2016 as a use case example of lagged correlations between large numbers of time series that are heavily influenced by externally arising new information as a random factor. The results demonstrate the viability of the proposed approach, with state-of-the-art accuracies and accounting for the statistical significance of the results for additional validation, as well as important implications for modern financial economics.


Simple stopping criteria for information theoretic feature selection

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Abstract--Information theoretic feature selection aims to select a smallest feature subset such that the mutual information between the selected features and the class labels is maximized. Despite the simplicity of this objective, there still remains several open problems to optimize it. These include, for example, the automatic determination of the optimal subset size (i.e., the number of features) or a stopping criterion if the greedy searching strategy is adopted. In this letter, we suggest two stopping criteria by just monitoring the conditional mutual information (CMI) among groups of variables. Using the recently developed multivariate matrix-based Rényi's α-entropy functional, we show that the CMI among groups of variables can be easily estimated without any decomposition or approximation, hence making our criteria easily implemented and seamlessly integrated into any existing information theoretic feature selection methods with greedy search strategy. I. INTRODUCTION Feature selection finds a smallest feature subset that yields the minimum generalization error [1].


EvoMSA: A Multilingual Evolutionary Approach for Sentiment Analysis

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Sentiment analysis (SA) is a task related to understanding people's feelings in written text; the starting point would be to identify the polarity level (positive, neutral or negative) of a given text, moving on to identify emotions or whether a text is humorous or not. This task has been the subject of several research competitions in a number of languages, e.g., English, Spanish, and Arabic, among others. In this contribution, we propose an SA system, namely EvoMSA, that unifies our participating systems in various SA competitions, making it domain independent and multilingual by processing text using only language-independent techniques. EvoMSA is a classifier, based on Genetic Programming, that works by combining the output of different text classifiers and text models to produce the final prediction. We analyze EvoMSA, with its parameters fixed, on different SA competitions to provide a global overview of its performance, and as the results show, EvoMSA is competitive obtaining top rankings in several SA competitions. Furthermore, we performed an analysis of EvoMSA's components to measure their contribution to the performance; the idea is to facilitate a practitioner or newcomer to implement a competitive SA classifier. Finally, it is worth to mention that EvoMSA is available as open source software.


Are All Training Examples Created Equal? An Empirical Study

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Modern computer vision algorithms often rely on very large training datasets. However, it is conceivable that a carefully selected subsample of the dataset is sufficient for training. In this paper, we propose a gradient-based importance measure that we use to empirically analyze relative importance of training images in four datasets of varying complexity. We find that in some cases, a small subsample is indeed sufficient for training. For other datasets, however, the relative differences in importance are negligible. These results have important implications for active learning on deep networks. Additionally, our analysis method can be used as a general tool to better understand diversity of training examples in datasets.


Sequential Embedding Induced Text Clustering, a Non-parametric Bayesian Approach

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Current state-of-the-art nonparametric Bayesian text clustering methods model documents through multinomial distribution on bags of words. Although these methods can effectively utilize the word burstiness representation of documents and achieve decent performance, they do not explore the sequential information of text and relationships among synonyms. In this paper, the documents are modeled as the joint of bags of words, sequential features and word embeddings. We proposed Sequential Embedding induced Dirichlet Process Mixture Model (SiDPMM) to effectively exploit this joint document representation in text clustering. The sequential features are extracted by the encoder-decoder component. Word embeddings produced by the continuous-bag-of-words (CBOW) model are introduced to handle synonyms. Experimental results demonstrate the benefits of our model in two major aspects: 1) improved performance across multiple diverse text datasets in terms of the normalized mutual information (NMI); 2) more accurate inference of ground truth cluster numbers with regularization effect on tiny outlier clusters.


A Deep Latent-Variable Model Application to Select Treatment Intensity in Survival Analysis

arXiv.org Machine Learning

In the following short article we adapt a new and popular machine learning model for inference on medical data sets. Our method is based on the Variational AutoEncoder (VAE) framework that we adapt to survival analysis on small data sets with missing values. In our model, the true health status appears as a set of latent variables that affects the observed covariates and the survival chances. We show that this flexible model allows insightful decision-making using a predicted distribution and outperforms a classic survival analysis model.