An important goal common to domain adaptation and causal inference is to make accurate predictions when the distributions for the source (or training) domain(s) and target (or test) domain(s) differ. In many cases, these different distributions can be modeled as different contexts of a single underlying system, in which each distribution corresponds to a different perturbation of the system, or in causal terms, an intervention. We focus on a class of such causal domain adaptation problems, where data for one or more source domains are given, and the task is to predict the distribution of a certain target variable from measurements of other variables in one or more target domains. We propose an approach for solving these problems that exploits causal inference and does not rely on prior knowledge of the causal graph, the type of interventions or the intervention targets. We demonstrate our approach by evaluating a possible implementation on simulated and real world data.

Social goods, such as healthcare, smart city, and information networks, often produce ordered event data in continuous time. The generative processes of these event data can be very complex, requiring flexible models to capture their dynamics. Temporal point processes offer an elegant framework for modeling event data without discretizing the time. However, the existing maximum-likelihood-estimation (MLE) learning paradigm requires hand-crafting the intensity function beforehand and cannot directly monitor the goodness-of-fit of the estimated model in the process of training. To alleviate the risk of model-misspecification in MLE, we propose to generate samples from the generative model and monitor the quality of the samples in the process of training until the samples and the real data are indistinguishable. We take inspiration from reinforcement learning (RL) and treat the generation of each event as the action taken by a stochastic policy. We parameterize the policy as a flexible recurrent neural network and gradually improve the policy to mimic the observed event distribution. Since the reward function is unknown in this setting, we uncover an analytic and nonparametric form of the reward function using an inverse reinforcement learning formulation. This new RL framework allows us to derive an efficient policy gradient algorithm for learning flexible point process models, and we show that it performs well in both synthetic and real data.

Deriving conditional and marginal distributions using conjugacy relationships can be time consuming and error prone. In this paper, we propose a strategy for automating such derivations. Unlike previous systems which focus on relationships between pairs of random variables, our system (which we call Autoconj) operates directly on Python functions that compute log-joint distribution functions. Autoconj provides support for conjugacy-exploiting algorithms in any Python-embedded PPL. This paves the way for accelerating development of novel inference algorithms and structure-exploiting modeling strategies. The package can be downloaded at https://github.com/google-research/autoconj.

In this paper, we propose a novel sampling method, the thermostat-assisted continuously-tempered Hamiltonian Monte Carlo, for the purpose of multimodal Bayesian learning. It simulates a noisy dynamical system by incorporating both a continuously-varying tempering variable and the Nos\'e-Hoover thermostats. A significant benefit is that it is not only able to efficiently generate i.i.d. samples when the underlying posterior distributions are multimodal, but also capable of adaptively neutralising the noise arising from the use of mini-batches. While the properties of the approach have been studied using synthetic datasets, our experiments on three real datasets have also shown its performance gains over several strong baselines for Bayesian learning with various types of neural networks plunged in.

We study robust subspace estimation in the streaming and distributed settings. Given a set of n data points {a_i}_{i=1}^n in R^d and an integer k, we wish to find a linear subspace S of dimension k for which sum_i M(dist(S, a_i)) is minimized, where dist(S,x) := min_{y in S} |x-y|_2, and M() is some loss function. When M is the identity function, S gives a subspace that is more robust to outliers than that provided by the truncated SVD. Though the problem is NP-hard, it is approximable within a (1+epsilon) factor in polynomial time when k and epsilon are constant. We give the first sublinear approximation algorithm for this problem in the turnstile streaming and arbitrary partition distributed models, achieving the same time guarantees as in the offline case. Our algorithm is the first based entirely on oblivious dimensionality reduction, and significantly simplifies prior methods for this problem, which held in neither the streaming nor distributed models.

Algorithms for clustering points in metric spaces is a long-studied area of research. Clustering has seen a multitude of work both theoretically, in understanding the approximation guarantees possible for many objective functions such as k-median and k-means clustering, and experimentally, in finding the fastest algorithms and seeding procedures for Lloyd's algorithm. The performance of a given clustering algorithm depends on the specific application at hand, and this may not be known up front. For example, a "typical instance" may vary depending on the application, and different clustering heuristics perform differently depending on the instance. In this paper, we define an infinite family of algorithms generalizing Lloyd's algorithm, with one parameter controlling the the initialization procedure, and another parameter controlling the local search procedure. This family of algorithms includes the celebrated k-means++ algorithm, as well as the classic farthest-first traversal algorithm. We design efficient learning algorithms which receive samples from an application-specific distribution over clustering instances and learn a near-optimal clustering algorithm from the class. We show the best parameters vary significantly across datasets such as MNIST, CIFAR, and mixtures of Gaussians. Our learned algorithms never perform worse than k-means++, and on some datasets we see significant improvements.

We study the implicit regularization properties of optimization techniques by explicitly connecting their optimization paths to the regularization paths of ``corresponding'' regularized problems. This surprising connection shows that iterates of optimization techniques such as gradient descent and mirror descent are \emph{pointwise} close to solutions of appropriately regularized objectives. While such a tight connection between optimization and regularization is of independent intellectual interest, it also has important implications for machine learning: we can port results from regularized estimators to optimization, and vice versa. We investigate one key consequence, that borrows from the well-studied analysis of regularized estimators, to then obtain tight excess risk bounds of the iterates generated by optimization techniques.

We present computationally efficient algorithms to test various combinatorial structures of large-scale graphical models. In order to test the hypotheses on their topological structures, we propose two adjacency matrix sketching frameworks: neighborhood sketching and subgraph sketching. The neighborhood sketching algorithm is proposed to test the connectivity of graphical models. This algorithm randomly subsamples vertices and conducts neighborhood regression and screening. The global sketching algorithm is proposed to test the topological properties requiring exponential computation complexity, especially testing the chromatic number and the maximum clique. This algorithm infers the corresponding property based on the sampled subgraph. Our algorithms are shown to substantially accelerate the computation of existing methods. We validate our theory and method through both synthetic simulations and a real application in neuroscience.

We present a signal representation framework called the sparse manifold transform that combines key ideas from sparse coding, manifold learning, and slow feature analysis. It turns non-linear transformations in the primary sensory signal space into linear interpolations in a representational embedding space while maintaining approximate invertibility. The sparse manifold transform is an unsupervised and generative framework that explicitly and simultaneously models the sparse discreteness and low-dimensional manifold structure found in natural scenes. When stacked, it also models hierarchical composition. We provide a theoretical description of the transform and demonstrate properties of the learned representation on both synthetic data and natural videos.

We explore a new research direction in Bayesian variational inference with discrete latent variable priors where we exploit Kronecker matrix algebra for efficient and exact computations of the evidence lower bound (ELBO). The proposed "DIRECT" approach has several advantages over its predecessors; (i) it can exactly compute ELBO gradients (i.e. unbiased, zero-variance gradient estimates), eliminating the need for high-variance stochastic gradient estimators and enabling the use of quasi-Newton optimization methods; (ii) its training complexity is independent of the number of training points, permitting inference on large datasets; and (iii) its posterior samples consist of sparse and low-precision quantized integers which permit fast inference on hardware limited devices. In addition, our DIRECT models can exactly compute statistical moments of the parameterized predictive posterior without relying on Monte Carlo sampling. The DIRECT approach is not practical for all likelihoods, however, we identify a popular model structure which is practical, and demonstrate accurate inference using latent variables discretized as extremely low-precision 4-bit quantized integers. While the ELBO computations considered in the numerical studies require over 10^2352 log-likelihood evaluations, we train on datasets with over two-million points in just seconds.