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 Statistical Learning


AspeRa: Aspect-based Rating Prediction Model

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

We propose a novel end-to-end Aspect-based Rating Prediction model (AspeRa) that estimates user rating based on review texts for the items and at the same time discovers coherent aspects of reviews that can be used to explain predictions or profile users. The AspeRa model uses max-margin losses for joint item and user embedding learning and a dual-headed architecture; it significantly outperforms recently proposed state-of-the-art models such as DeepCoNN, HFT, NARRE, and TransRev on two real world data sets of user reviews. With qualitative examination of the aspects and quantitative evaluation of rating prediction models based on these aspects, we show how aspect embeddings can be used in a recommender system.


Thirty Years of Machine Learning:The Road to Pareto-Optimal Next-Generation Wireless Networks

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Next-generation wireless networks (NGWN) have a substantial potential in terms of supporting a broad range of complex compelling applications both in military and civilian fields, where the users are able to enjoy high-rate, low-latency, low-cost and reliable information services. Achieving this ambitious goal requires new radio techniques for adaptive learning and intelligent decision making because of the complex heterogeneous nature of the network structures and wireless services. Machine learning algorithms have great success in supporting big data analytics, efficient parameter estimation and interactive decision making. Hence, in this article, we review the thirty-year history of machine learning by elaborating on supervised learning, unsupervised learning, reinforcement learning and deep learning, respectively. Furthermore, we investigate their employment in the compelling applications of NGWNs, including heterogeneous networks (HetNets), cognitive radios (CR), Internet of things (IoT), machine to machine networks (M2M), and so on. This article aims for assisting the readers in clarifying the motivation and methodology of the various machine learning algorithms, so as to invoke them for hitherto unexplored services as well as scenarios of future wireless networks.


Trajectory Normalized Gradients for Distributed Optimization

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Recently, researchers proposed various low-precision gradient compression, for efficient communication in large-scale distributed optimization. Based on these work, we try to reduce the communication complexity from a new direction. We pursue an ideal bijective mapping between two spaces of gradient distribution, so that the mapped gradient carries greater information entropy after the compression. In our setting, all servers should share a reference gradient in advance, and they communicate via the normalized gradients, which are the subtraction or quotient, between current gradients and the reference. To obtain a reference vector that yields a stronger signal-to-noise ratio, dynamically in each iteration, we extract and fuse information from the past trajectory in hindsight, and search for an optimal reference for compression. We name this to be the trajectory-based normalized gradients (TNG). It bridges the research from different societies, like coding, optimization, systems, and learning. It is easy to implement and can universally combine with existing algorithms. Our experiments on benchmarking hard non-convex functions, convex problems like logistic regression demonstrate that TNG is more compression-efficient for communication of distributed optimization of general functions.


Three principles of data science: predictability, computability, and stability (PCS)

arXiv.org Machine Learning

We propose the predictability, computability, and stability (PCS) framework to extract reproducible knowledge from data that can guide scientific hypothesis generation and experimental design. The PCS framework builds on key ideas in machine learning, using predictability as a reality check and evaluating computational considerations in data collection, data storage, and algorithm design. It augments PC with an overarching stability principle, which largely expands traditional statistical uncertainty considerations. In particular, stability assesses how results vary with respect to choices (or perturbations) made across the data science life cycle, including problem formulation, pre-processing, modeling (data and algorithm perturbations), and exploratory data analysis (EDA) before and after modeling. Furthermore, we develop PCS inference to investigate the stability of data results and identify when models are consistent with relatively simple phenomena. We compare PCS inference with existing methods, such as selective inference, in high-dimensional sparse linear model simulations to demonstrate that our methods consistently outperform others in terms of ROC curves over a wide range of simulation settings. Finally, we propose a PCS documentation based on Rmarkdown, iPython, or Jupyter Notebook, with publicly available, reproducible codes and narratives to back up human choices made throughout an analysis. The PCS workflow and documentation are demonstrated in a genomics case study available on Zenodo.


Interpretable Neural Networks for Predicting Mortality Risk using Multi-modal Electronic Health Records

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Abstract--We present an interpretable neural network for predicting an important clinical outcome (1-year mortality) from multi-modal Electronic Health Record (EHR) data. Our approach buildson prior multi-modal machine learning models by now enabling visualization of how individual factors contribute to the overall outcome risk, assuming other factors remain constant, which was previously impossible. We demonstrate the value of this approach using a large multi-modal clinical dataset including both EHR data and 31,278 echocardiographic videos of the heart from 26,793 patients. We generated separate models for (i) clinical data only (CD) (e.g. The interpretable multi-modal model maintained performance compared to non-interpretable models (Random Forest, XG-Boost), and also performed significantly better than a model using a single modality (average AUC 0.82). Clinically relevant insights and multi-modal variable importance rankings were also facilitated by the new model, which have previously been impossible. I. INTRODUCTION The adoption of Electronic Health Records (EHR) in medicine has facilitated the collection of massive amounts of clinical data which can be used to develop highly accurate risk models that physicians can use to guide medical decision making. To take full advantage of the available EHR data, these models, similar to a physician, need to be able to handle multiple modalities as inputs. For example, both tabular data such as laboratory measurements and pixel data from clinical images should be readily incorporated. This basic framework is shown in Figure 1. As documented in [1], [2], [3], [4], precision medicine can benefit greatly from development of these risk models. The proliferation of these models has prompted scrutiny from the medical community, which demands clinical validity and interpretability to improve usefulness [5] and inclusion of all relevant predictors (or, conversely, explanation when a relevant data input is excluded) [6]. Thus, any medical risk model should be interpretable and facilitate understanding of the various contributions of different inputs towards the overall risk assessment.


Deep Mean Functions for Meta-Learning in Gaussian Processes

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Fitting machine learning models in the low-data limit is challenging. The main challenge is to obtain suitable prior knowledge and encode it into the model, for instance in the form of a Gaussian process prior. Recent advances in meta-learning offer powerful methods for extracting such prior knowledge from data acquired in related tasks. When it comes to meta-learning in Gaussian process models, approaches in this setting have mostly focused on learning the kernel function of the prior, but not on learning its mean function. In this work, we propose to parameterize the mean function of a Gaussian process with a deep neural network and train it with a meta-learning procedure. We present analytical and empirical evidence that mean function learning can be superior to kernel learning alone, particularly if data is scarce.


Recurrent Neural Filters: Learning Independent Bayesian Filtering Steps for Time Series Prediction

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Despite the recent popularity of deep generative state space models, few comparisons have been made between network architectures and the inference steps of the Bayesian filtering framework -- with most models simultaneously approximating both state transition and update steps with a single recurrent neural network (RNN). In this paper, we introduce the Recurrent Neural Filter (RNF), a novel recurrent variational autoencoder architecture that learns distinct representations for each Bayesian filtering step, captured by a series of encoders and decoders. Testing this on three real-world time series datasets, we demonstrate that decoupling representations not only improves the accuracy of one-step-ahead forecasts while providing realistic uncertainty estimates, but also facilitates multistep prediction through the separation of encoder stages.


Large dimensional analysis of general margin based classification methods

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Margin-based classifiers have been popular in both machine learning and statistics for classification problems. Since a large number of classifiers are available, one natural question is which type of classifiers should be used given a particular classification task. We aim to answering this question by investigating the asymptotic performance of a family of large-margin classifiers in situations where the data dimension $p$ and the sample $n$ are both large. This family covers a broad range of classifiers including support vector machine, distance weighted discrimination, penalized logistic regression, and large-margin unified machine as special cases. The asymptotic results are described by a set of nonlinear equations and we observe a close match of them with Monte Carlo simulation on finite data samples. Our analytical studies shed new light on how to select the best classifier among various classification methods as well as on how to choose the optimal tuning parameters for a given method.


What Can Machine Learning Teach Us about Communications?

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Rapid improvements in machine learning over the past decade are beginning to have far-reaching effects. For communications, engineers with limited domain expertise can now use off-the-shelf learning packages to design high-performance systems based on simulations. Prior to the current revolution in machine learning, the majority of communication engineers were quite aware that system parameters (such as filter coefficients) could be learned using stochastic gradient descent. It was not at all clear, however, that more complicated parts of the system architecture could be learned as well. In this paper, we discuss the application of machine-learning techniques to two communications problems and focus on what can be learned from the resulting systems. We were pleasantly surprised that the observed gains in one example have a simple explanation that only became clear in hindsight. In essence, deep learning discovered a simple and effective strategy that had not been considered earlier.


Estimation and Optimization of Composite Outcomes

arXiv.org Machine Learning

There is tremendous interest in precision medicine as a means to improve patient outcomes by tailoring treatment to individual characteristics. An individualized treatment rule formalizes precision medicine as a map from patient information to a recommended treatment. A treatment rule is defined to be optimal if it maximizes the mean of a scalar outcome in a population of interest, e.g., symptom reduction. However, clinical and intervention scientists often must balance multiple and possibly competing outcomes, e.g., symptom reduction and the risk of an adverse event. One approach to precision medicine in this setting is to elicit a composite outcome which balances all competing outcomes; unfortunately, eliciting a composite outcome directly from patients is difficult without a high-quality instrument, and an expert-derived composite outcome may not account for heterogeneity in patient preferences. We propose a new paradigm for the study of precision medicine using observational data that relies solely on the assumption that clinicians are approximately (i.e., imperfectly) making decisions to maximize individual patient utility. Estimated composite outcomes are subsequently used to construct an estimator of an individualized treatment rule which maximizes the mean of patient-specific composite outcomes. The estimated composite outcomes and estimated optimal individualized treatment rule provide new insights into patient preference heterogeneity, clinician behavior, and the value of precision medicine in a given domain. We derive inference procedures for the proposed estimators under mild conditions and demonstrate their finite sample performance through a suite of simulation experiments and an illustrative application to data from a study of bipolar depression.