Statistical Learning
High Dimensional Robust Estimation of Sparse Models via Trimmed Hard Thresholding
Liu, Liu, Li, Tianyang, Caramanis, Constantine
We study the problem of sparsity constrained $M$-estimation with arbitrary corruptions to both {\em explanatory and response} variables in the high-dimensional regime, where the number of variables $d$ is larger than the sample size $n$. Our main contribution is a highly efficient gradient-based optimization algorithm that we call Trimmed Hard Thresholding -- a robust variant of Iterative Hard Thresholding (IHT) by using trimmed mean in gradient computations. Our algorithm can deal with a wide class of sparsity constrained $M$-estimation problems, and we can tolerate a nearly dimension independent fraction of arbitrarily corrupted samples. More specifically, when the corrupted fraction satisfies $\epsilon \lesssim {1} /\left({\sqrt{k} \log (nd)}\right)$, where $k$ is the sparsity of the parameter, we obtain accurate estimation and model selection guarantees with optimal sample complexity. Furthermore, we extend our algorithm to sparse Gaussian graphical model (precision matrix) estimation via a neighborhood selection approach. We demonstrate the effectiveness of robust estimation in sparse linear, logistic regression, and sparse precision matrix estimation on synthetic and real-world US equities data.
A Universally Optimal Multistage Accelerated Stochastic Gradient Method
Aybat, Necdet Serhat, Fallah, Alireza, Gurbuzbalaban, Mert, Ozdaglar, Asuman
We study the problem of minimizing a strongly convex and smooth function when we have noisy estimates of its gradient. We propose a novel multistage accelerated algorithm that is universally optimal in the sense that it achieves the optimal rate both in the deterministic and stochastic case and operates without knowledge of noise characteristics. The algorithm consists of stages that use a stochastic version of Nesterov's accelerated algorithm with a specific restart and parameters selected to achieve the fastest reduction in the bias-variance terms in the convergence rate bounds.
A Review on Quantile Regression for Stochastic Computer Experiments
Torossian, Léonard, Picheny, Victor, Faivre, Robert, Garivier, Aurélien
We report on an empirical study of the main strategies for conditional quantile estimation in the context of stochastic computer experiments. To ensure adequate diversity, six metamodels are presented, divided into three categories based on order statistics, functional approaches, and those of Bayesian inspiration. The metamodels are tested on several problems characterized by the size of the training set, the input dimension, the quantile order and the value of the probability density function in the neighborhood of the quantile. The metamodels studied reveal good contrasts in our set of 480 experiments, enabling several patterns to be extracted. Based on our results, guidelines are proposed to allow users to select the best method for a given problem.
SPI-Optimizer: an integral-Separated PI Controller for Stochastic Optimization
Wang, Dan, Ji, Mengqi, Wang, Yong, Wang, Haoqian, Fang, Lu
To overcome the oscillation problem in the classical momentum-based optimizer, recent work associates it with the proportional-integral (PI) controller, and artificially adds D term producing a PID controller. It suppresses oscillation with the sacrifice of introducing extra hyper-parameter. In this paper, we start by analyzing: why momentum-based method oscillates about the optimal point? and answering that: the fluctuation problem relates to the lag effect of integral (I) term. Inspired by the conditional integration idea in classical control society, we propose SPI-Optimizer, an integral-Separated PI controller based optimizer WITHOUT introducing extra hyperparameter. It separates momentum term adaptively when the inconsistency of current and historical gradient direction occurs. Extensive experiments demonstrate that SPIOptimizer generalizes well on popular network architectures to eliminate the oscillation, and owns competitive performance with faster convergence speed (up to 40% epochs reduction ratio ) and more accurate classification result on MNIST, CIFAR10, and CIFAR100 (up to 27.5% error reduction ratio) than the state-of-the-art methods.
Analysis of cause-effect inference by comparing regression errors
Blöbaum, Patrick, Janzing, Dominik, Washio, Takashi, Shimizu, Shohei, Schölkopf, Bernhard
We address the problem of inferring the causal direction between two variables by comparing the least-squares errors of the predictions in both possible directions. Under the assumption of an independence between the function relating cause and effect, the conditional noise distribution, and the distribution of the cause, we show that the errors are smaller in causal direction if both variables are equally scaled and the causal relation is close to deterministic. Based on this, we provide an easily applicable algorithm that only requires a regression in both possible causal directions and a comparison of the errors. The performance of the algorithm is compared with various related causal inference methods in different artificial and real-world data sets.
Provable Smoothness Guarantees for Black-Box Variational Inference
Black-box variational inference tries to approximate a complex target distribution though a gradient-based optimization of the parameters of a simpler distribution. Provable convergence guarantees require structural properties of the objective. This paper shows that for location-scale family approximations, if the target is M-Lipschitz smooth, then so is the objective, if the entropy is excluded. The key proof idea is to describe gradients in a certain inner-product space, thus permitting use of Bessel's inequality. This result gives insight into how to parameterize distributions, gives bounds the location of the optimal parameters, and is a key ingredient for convergence guarantees.
Evaluation Function Approximation for Scrabble
The current state-of-the-art Scrabble agents are not learning-based but depend on truncated Monte Carlo simulations and the quality of such agents is contingent upon the time available for running the simulations. This thesis takes steps towards building a learning-based Scrabble agent using self-play. Specifically, we try to find a better function approximation for the static evaluation function used in Scrabble which determines the move goodness at a given board configuration. In this work, we experimented with evolutionary algorithms and Bayesian Optimization to learn the weights for an approximate feature-based evaluation function. However, these optimization methods were not quite effective, which lead us to explore the given problem from an Imitation Learning point of view. We also tried to imitate the ranking of moves produced by the Quackle simulation agent using supervised learning with a neural network function approximator which takes the raw representation of the Scrabble board as the input instead of using only a fixed number of handcrafted features.
Efficient Exploration through Bayesian Deep Q-Networks
Azizzadenesheli, Kamyar, Anandkumar, Animashree
We propose Bayesian Deep Q-Networks (BDQN), a Thompson sampling approach for Deep Reinforcement Learning (DRL) in Markov decision processes (MDP). BDQN is an efficient exploration-exploitation algorithm which combines Thompson sampling with deep-Q networks (DQN) and directly incorporates uncertainty over the Q-value in the last layer of the DQN, on the feature representation layer. This allows us to efficiently carry out Thompson sampling through Gaussian sampling and Bayesian Linear Regression (BLR), which has fast closed-form updates. We apply our method to a wide range of Atari games and compare BDQN to a powerful baseline: the double deep Q-network (DDQN). Since BDQN carries out more efficient exploration, it is able to reach higher rewards substantially faster: in less than 5M-+1M interactions for almost half of the games to reach DDQN scores. We also establish theoretical guarantees for the special case when the feature representation is d-dimensional and fixed. We provide the Bayesian regret of posterior sampling RL (PSRL) and frequentist regret of the optimism in the face of uncertainty (OFU) for episodic MDPs.
Meta-Learning for Contextual Bandit Exploration
We describe MELEE, a meta-learning algorithm for learning a good exploration policy in the interactive contextual bandit setting. Here, an algorithm must take actions based on contexts, and learn based only on a reward signal from the action taken, thereby generating an exploration/exploitation trade-off. MELEE addresses this trade-off by learning a good exploration strategy for offline tasks based on synthetic data, on which it can simulate the contextual bandit setting. Based on these simulations, MELEE uses an imitation learning strategy to learn a good exploration policy that can then be applied to true contextual bandit tasks at test time. We compare MELEE to seven strong baseline contextual bandit algorithms on a set of three hundred real-world datasets, on which it outperforms alternatives in most settings, especially when differences in rewards are large. Finally, we demonstrate the importance of having a rich feature representation for learning how to explore.