Capturing the dynamical properties of time series concisely as interpretable feature vectors can enable efficient clustering and classification for time-series applications across science and industry. Selecting an appropriate feature-based representation of time series for a given application can be achieved through systematic comparison across a comprehensive time-series feature library, such as those in the hctsa toolbox. However, this approach is computationally expensive and involves evaluating many similar features, limiting the widespread adoption of feature-based representations of time series for real-world applications. In this work, we introduce a method to infer small sets of time-series features that (i) exhibit strong classification performance across a given collection of time-series problems, and (ii) are minimally redundant. Applying our method to a set of 93 time-series classification datasets (containing over 147000 time series) and using a filtered version of the hctsa feature library (4791 features), we introduce a generically useful set of 22 CAnonical Time-series CHaracteristics, catch22. This dimensionality reduction, from 4791 to 22, is associated with an approximately 1000-fold reduction in computation time and near linear scaling with time-series length, despite an average reduction in classification accuracy of just 7%. catch22 captures a diverse and interpretable signature of time series in terms of their properties, including linear and non-linear autocorrelation, successive differences, value distributions and outliers, and fluctuation scaling properties. We provide an efficient implementation of catch22, accessible from many programming environments, that facilitates feature-based time-series analysis for scientific, industrial, financial and medical applications using a common language of interpretable time-series properties.

Co-Clustering, the problem of simultaneously identifying clusters across multiple aspects of a data set, is a natural generalization of clustering to higher-order structured data. Recent convex formulations of bi-clustering and tensor co-clustering, which shrink estimated centroids together using a convex fusion penalty, allow for global optimality guarantees and precise theoretical analysis, but their computational properties have been less well studied. In this note, we present three efficient operator-splitting methods for the convex co-clustering problem: a standard two-block ADMM, a Generalized ADMM which avoids an expensive tensor Sylvester equation in the primal update, and a three-block ADMM based on the operator splitting scheme of Davis and Yin. Theoretical complexity analysis suggests, and experimental evidence confirms, that the Generalized ADMM is far more efficient for large problems.

Missing value imputation is a fundamental problem in modeling spatiotemporal sequences, from motion tracking to the dynamics of physical systems. In this paper, we take a non-autoregressive approach and propose a novel deep generative model: Non-AutOregressive Multiresolution Imputation (NAOMI) for imputing long-range spatiotemporal sequences given arbitrary missing patterns. In particular, NAOMI exploits the multiresolution structure of spatiotemporal data to interpolate recursively from coarse to fine-grained resolutions. We further enhance our model with adversarial training using an imitation learning objective. When trained on billiards and basketball trajectories, NAOMI demonstrates significant improvement in imputation accuracy (reducing average prediction error by 60% compared to autoregressive counterparts) and generalization capability for long range trajectories in systems of both deterministic and stochastic dynamics.

The exponential mechanism is a fundamental tool of Differential Privacy (DP) due to its strong privacy guarantees and flexibility. We study its extension to settings with summaries based on infinite dimensional outputs such as with functional data analysis, shape analysis, and nonparametric statistics. We show that one can design the mechanism with respect to a specific base measure over the output space, such as a Guassian process. We provide a positive result that establishes a Central Limit Theorem for the exponential mechanism quite broadly. We also provide an apparent negative result, showing that the magnitude of the noise introduced for privacy is asymptotically non-negligible relative to the statistical estimation error. We develop an \ep-DP mechanism for functional principal component analysis, applicable in separable Hilbert spaces. We demonstrate its performance via simulations and applications to two datasets.

Boosting algorithms produce a classifier by iteratively combining base hypotheses. It has been observed experimentally that the generalization error keeps improving even after achieving zero training error. One popular explanation attributes this to improvements in margins. A common goal in a long line of research, is to maximize the smallest margin using as few base hypotheses as possible, culminating with the AdaBoostV algorithm by (R{\"a}tsch and Warmuth [JMLR'04]). The AdaBoostV algorithm was later conjectured to yield an optimal trade-off between number of hypotheses trained and the minimal margin over all training points (Nie et al. [JMLR'13]). Our main contribution is a new algorithm refuting this conjecture. Furthermore, we prove a lower bound which implies that our new algorithm is optimal.

This paper presents a novel clustering concept that is based on jointly learned nonlinear transforms (NTs) with priors on the information loss and the discrimination. We introduce a clustering principle that is based on evaluation of a parametric min-max measure for the discriminative prior. The decomposition of the prior measure allows to break down the assignment into two steps. In the first step, we apply NTs to a data point in order to produce candidate NT representations. In the second step, we preform the actual assignment by evaluating the parametric measure over the candidate NT representations. Numerical experiments on image clustering task validate the potential of the proposed approach. The evaluation shows advantages in comparison to the state-of-the-art clustering methods.

Time series constitute a challenging data type for machine learning algorithms, due to their highly variable lengths and sparse labeling in practice. In this paper, we tackle this challenge by proposing an unsupervised method to learn universal embeddings of time series. Unlike previous works, it is scalable with respect to their length and we demonstrate the quality, transferability and practicability of the learned representations with thorough experiments and comparisons. To this end, we combine an encoder based on causal dilated convolutions with a triplet loss employing time-based negative sampling, obtaining general-purpose representations for variable length and multivariate time series.

Classification of time series is a topical issue in machine learning. While accuracy stands for the most important evaluation criterion, some applications require decisions to be made as early as possible. Optimization should then target a compromise between earliness, i.e., a capacity of providing a decision early in the sequence, and accuracy. In this work, we propose a generic, end-to-end trainable framework for early classification of time series. This framework embeds a learnable decision mechanism that can be plugged into a wide range of already existing models. We present results obtained with deep neural networks on a diverse set of time series classification problems. Our approach compares well to state-of-the-art competitors while being easily adaptable by any existing neural network topology that evaluates a hidden state at each time step.

Bayesian inference via standard Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods such as Metropolis-Hastings is too computationally intensive to handle large datasets, since the cost per step usually scales like $O(n)$ in the number of data points $n$. We propose the Scalable Metropolis-Hastings (SMH) kernel that exploits Gaussian concentration of the posterior to require processing on average only $O(1)$ or even $O(1/\sqrt{n})$ data points per step. This scheme is based on a combination of factorized acceptance probabilities, procedures for fast simulation of Bernoulli processes, and control variate ideas. Contrary to many MCMC subsampling schemes such as fixed step-size Stochastic Gradient Langevin Dynamics, our approach is exact insofar as the invariant distribution is the true posterior and not an approximation to it. We characterise the performance of our algorithm theoretically, and give realistic and verifiable conditions under which it is geometrically ergodic. This theory is borne out by empirical results that demonstrate overall performance benefits over standard Metropolis-Hastings and various subsampling algorithms.

Better methods to detect insider threats need new anticipatory analytics to capture risky behavior prior to losing data. In search of the best overall classifier, this work empirically scores 88 machine learning algorithms in 16 major families. We extract risk features from the large CERT dataset, which blends real network behavior with individual threat narratives. We discover the predictive importance of measuring employee sentiment. Among major classifier families tested on CERT, the random forest algorithms offer the best choice, with different implementations scoring over 98% accurate. In contrast to more obscure or black-box alternatives, random forests are ensembles of many decision trees and thus offer a deep but human-readable set of detection rules (>2000 rules). We address performance rankings by penalizing long execution times against higher median accuracies using cross-fold validation. We address the relative rarity of threats as a case of low signal-to-noise (< 0.02% malicious to benign activities), and then train on both under-sampled and over-sampled data which is statistically balanced to identify nefarious actors.