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 Statistical Learning


Cost-Effective Incentive Allocation via Structured Counterfactual Inference

arXiv.org Machine Learning

We address a practical problem ubiquitous in modern industry, in which a mediator tries to learn a policy for allocating strategic financial incentives for customers in a marketing campaign and observes only bandit feedback. In contrast to traditional policy optimization frameworks, we rely on a specific assumption for the reward structure and we incorporate budget constraints. We develop a new two-step method for solving this constrained counterfactual policy optimization problem. First, we cast the reward estimation problem as a domain adaptation problem with supplementary structure. Subsequently, the estimators are used for optimizing the policy with constraints. We establish theoretical error bounds for our estimation procedure and we empirically show that the approach leads to significant improvement on both synthetic and real datasets.


Nearly Optimal Dynamic $k$-Means Clustering for High-Dimensional Data

arXiv.org Machine Learning

We consider the $k$-means clustering problem in the dynamic streaming setting, where points from a discrete Euclidean space $\{1, 2, \ldots, \Delta\}^d$ can be dynamically inserted to or deleted from the dataset. For this problem, we provide a one-pass coreset construction algorithm using space $\tilde{O}(k\cdot \mathrm{poly}(d, \log\Delta))$, where $k$ is the target number of centers. To our knowledge, this is the first dynamic geometric data stream algorithm for $k$-means using space polynomial in dimension and nearly optimal (linear) in $k$.


Heterogeneous Edge Embeddings for Friend Recommendation

arXiv.org Machine Learning

We propose a friend recommendation system (an application of link prediction) using edge embeddings on social networks. Most real-world social networks are multi-graphs, where different kinds of relationships (e.g. chat, friendship) are possible between a pair of users. Existing network embedding techniques do not leverage signals from different edge types and thus perform inadequately on link prediction in such networks. We propose a method to mine network representation that effectively exploits heterogeneity in multi-graphs. We evaluate our model on a real-world, active social network where this system is deployed for friend recommendation for millions of users. Our method outperforms various state-of-the-art baselines on Hike's social network in terms of accuracy as well as user satisfaction.


Mean Field Limit of the Learning Dynamics of Multilayer Neural Networks

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Can multilayer neural networks -- typically constructed as highly complex structures with many nonlinearly activated neurons across layers -- behave in a non-trivial way that yet simplifies away a major part of their complexities? In this work, we uncover a phenomenon in which the behavior of these complex networks -- under suitable scalings and stochastic gradient descent dynamics -- becomes independent of the number of neurons as this number grows sufficiently large. We develop a formalism in which this many-neurons limiting behavior is captured by a set of equations, thereby exposing a previously unknown operating regime of these networks. While the current pursuit is mathematically non-rigorous, it is complemented with several experiments that validate the existence of this behavior.


Compatible Natural Gradient Policy Search

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Trust-region methods have yielded state-of-the-art results in policy search. A common approach is to use KL-divergence to bound the region of trust resulting in a natural gradient policy update. We show that the natural gradient and trust region optimization are equivalent if we use the natural parameterization of a standard exponential policy distribution in combination with compatible value function approximation. Moreover, we show that standard natural gradient updates may reduce the entropy of the policy according to a wrong schedule leading to premature convergence. To control entropy reduction we introduce a new policy search method called compatible policy search (COPOS) which bounds entropy loss. The experimental results show that COPOS yields state-of-the-art results in challenging continuous control tasks and in discrete partially observable tasks.


Random Matrix Improved Covariance Estimation for a Large Class of Metrics

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Relying on recent advances in statistical estimation of covariance distances based on random matrix theory, this article proposes an improved covariance and precision matrix estimation for a wide family of metrics. The method is shown to largely outperform the sample covariance matrix estimate and to compete with state-of-the-art methods, while at the same time being computationally simpler. Applications to linear and quadratic discriminant analyses also demonstrate significant gains, therefore suggesting practical interest to statistical machine learning.


Improving Latent User Models in Online Social Media

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Modern social platforms are characterized by the presence of rich user-behavior data associated with the publication, sharing and consumption of textual content. Users interact with content and with each other in a complex and dynamic social environment while simultaneously evolving over time. In order to effectively characterize users and predict their future behavior in such a setting, it is necessary to overcome several challenges. Content heterogeneity and temporal inconsistency of behavior data result in severe sparsity at the user level. In this paper, we propose a novel mutual-enhancement framework to simultaneously partition and learn latent activity profiles of users. We propose a flexible user partitioning approach to effectively discover rare behaviors and tackle user-level sparsity. We extensively evaluate the proposed framework on massive datasets from real-world platforms including Q&A networks and interactive online courses (MOOCs). Our results indicate significant gains over state-of-the-art behavior models ( 15% avg ) in a varied range of tasks and our gains are further magnified for users with limited interaction data. The proposed algorithms are amenable to parallelization, scale linearly in the size of datasets, and provide flexibility to model diverse facets of user behavior.


Keeping the Big Picture In Sight at H2O World

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H2O.ai CEO Sri Ambati at H2O World February 5, 2019 SriSatish Ambati, the CEO of H2O.ai, had just taken the stage at H2O World in San Francisco yesterday morning. His keynote had barely begun, but Ambati clearly had something to get off his chest. "Time is the only non-renewable source," he said. "Our time is not coming back to us. You could say that Ambati has made quite a bit of his time up to this point. In addition to authoring the H2O machine learning library and co-founding H2O.ai (initially called 0xdata), he co-founded the big data analytics company Platfora. His professional career also took him to Datastax, Azul Systems, and RightOrder, while his academic career involved stops at Stanford, Purdue, and Berkeley, where he studied theoretical neuroscience. In his time at H2O.ai, Ambati has made a big mark. The core of the operation is the open source H2O software itself, a package of supervised and unsupervised machine learning algorithms, such as K-means clustering, random ...



Advanced Data Analytics Using Python - Programmer Books

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Gain a broad foundation of advanced data analytics concepts and discover the recent revolution in databases such as Neo4j, Elasticsearch, and MongoDB. This book discusses how to implement ETL techniques including topical crawling, which is applied in domains such as high-frequency algorithmic trading and goal-oriented dialog systems. You'll also see examples of machine learning concepts such as semi-supervised learning, deep learning, and NLP. Advanced Data Analytics Using Python also covers important traditional data analysis techniques such as time series and principal component analysis. After reading this book you will have experience of every technical aspect of an analytics project.