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 Statistical Learning


Patient Clustering Improves Efficiency of Federated Machine Learning to predict mortality and hospital stay time using distributed Electronic Medical Records

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Electronic medical records (EMRs) supports the development of machine learning algorithms for predicting disease incidence, patient response to treatment, and other healthcare events. But insofar most algorithms have been centralized, taking little account of the decentralized, non-identically independently distributed (non-IID), and privacy-sensitive characteristics of EMRs that can complicate data collection, sharing and learning. To address this challenge, we introduced a community-based federated machine learning (CBFL) algorithm and evaluated it on non-IID ICU EMRs. Our algorithm clustered the distributed data into clinically meaningful communities that captured similar diagnoses and geological locations, and learnt one model for each community. Throughout the learning process, the data was kept local on hospitals, while locally-computed results were aggregated on a server. Evaluation results show that CBFL outperformed the baseline FL algorithm in terms of Area Under the Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve (ROC AUC), Area Under the Precision-Recall Curve (PR AUC), and communication cost between hospitals and the server. Furthermore, communities' performance difference could be explained by how dissimilar one community was to others.


Multi-Domain Adversarial Learning

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Multi-domain learning (MDL) aims at obtaining a model with minimal average risk across multiple domains. Our empirical motivation is automated microscopy data, where cultured cells are imaged after being exposed to known and unknown chemical perturbations, and each dataset displays significant experimental bias. ULANN, to leverage multiple datasets with overlapping but distinct class sets, in a semisupervised setting. Advances in technology have enabled large scale dataset generation by life sciences laboratories. These datasets contain information about overlapping but non-identical known and unknown experimental conditions. A challenge is how to best leverage information across multiple datasets on the same subject, and to make discoveries that could not have been obtained from any individual dataset alone. Transfer learning provides a formal framework for addressing this challenge, particularly crucial in cases where data acquisition is expensive and heavily impacted by experimental settings. One such field is automated microscopy, which can capture thousands of images of cultured cells after exposure to different experimental perturbations (e.g from chemical or genetic sources). A goal is to classify mechanisms by which perturbations affect cellular processes based on the similarity of cell images. In principle, it should be possible to tackle microscopy image classification as yet another visual object recognition task.


Convergence of Parameter Estimates for Regularized Mixed Linear Regression Models

arXiv.org Machine Learning

We consider {\em Mixed Linear Regression (MLR)}, where training data have been generated from a mixture of distinct linear models (or clusters) and we seek to identify the corresponding coefficient vectors. We introduce a {\em Mixed Integer Programming (MIP)} formulation for MLR subject to regularization constraints on the coefficient vectors. We establish that as the number of training samples grows large, the MIP solution converges to the true coefficient vectors in the absence of noise. Subject to slightly stronger assumptions, we also establish that the MIP identifies the clusters from which the training samples were generated. In the special case where training data come from a single cluster, we establish that the corresponding MIP yields a solution that converges to the true coefficient vector even when training data are perturbed by (martingale difference) noise. We provide a counterexample indicating that in the presence of noise, the MIP may fail to produce the true coefficient vectors for more than one clusters. We also provide numerical results testing the MIP solutions in synthetic examples with noise.


Perturbed-History Exploration in Stochastic Linear Bandits

arXiv.org Machine Learning

We propose a new online algorithm for minimizing the cumulative regret in stochastic linear bandits. The key idea is to build a perturbed history, which mixes the history of observed rewards with a pseudo-history of randomly generated i.i.d. pseudo-rewards. Our algorithm, perturbed-history exploration in a linear bandit (LinPHE), estimates a linear model from its perturbed history and pulls the arm with the highest value under that model. We prove a $\tilde{O}(d \sqrt{n})$ gap-free bound on the expected $n$-round regret of LinPHE, where $d$ is the number of features. Our analysis relies on novel concentration and anti-concentration bounds on the weighted sum of Bernoulli random variables. To show the generality of our design, we extend LinPHE to a logistic reward model. We evaluate both algorithms empirically and show that they are practical.


Finite Sample Analysis of Stochastic System Identification

arXiv.org Machine Learning

In this paper, we analyze the finite sample complexity of stochastic system identification using modern tools from machine learning and statistics. An unknown discrete-time linear system evolves over time under Gaussian noise without external inputs. The objective is to recover the system parameters as well as the Kalman filter gain, given a single trajectory of output measurements over a finite horizon of length $N$. Based on a subspace identification algorithm and a finite number of $N$ output samples, we provide non-asymptotic high-probability upper bounds for the system parameter estimation errors. Our analysis uses recent results from random matrix theory, self-normalized martingales and SVD robustness, in order to show that with high probability the estimation errors decrease with a rate of $1/\sqrt{N}$. Our non-asymptotic bounds not only agree with classical asymptotic results, but are also valid even when the system is marginally stable.


Prescriptive Cluster-Dependent Support Vector Machines with an Application to Reducing Hospital Readmissions

arXiv.org Machine Learning

We augment linear Support Vector Machine (SVM) classifiers by adding three important features: (i) we introduce a regularization constraint to induce a sparse classifier; (ii) we devise a method that partitions the positive class into clusters and selects a sparse SVM classifier for each cluster; and (iii) we develop a method to optimize the values of controllable variables in order to reduce the number of data points which are predicted to have an undesirable outcome, which, in our setting, coincides with being in the positive class. The latter feature leads to personalized prescriptions/recommendations. We apply our methods to the problem of predicting and preventing hospital readmissions within 30-days from discharge for patients that underwent a general surgical procedure. To that end, we leverage a large dataset containing over 2.28 million patients who had surgeries in the period 2011--2014 in the U.S. The dataset has been collected as part of the American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program (NSQIP).


Deep Models for Relational Databases

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Due to its extensive use in databases, the relational model is ubiquitous in representing big-data. We propose to apply deep learning to this type of relational data by introducing an Equivariant Relational Layer (ERL), a neural network layer derived from the entity-relationship model of the database. Our layer relies on identification of exchangeabilities in the relational data(base), and their expression as a permutation group. We prove that an ERL is an optimal parameter-sharing scheme under the given exchangeability constraints, and subsumes recently introduced deep models for sets, exchangeable tensors, and graphs. The proposed model has a linear complexity in the size of the relational data, and it can be used for both inductive and transductive reasoning in databases, including the prediction of missing records, and database embedding. This opens the door to the application of deep learning to one of the most abundant forms of data.


Latent Simplex Position Model: High Dimensional Multi-view Clustering with Uncertainty Quantification

arXiv.org Machine Learning

High dimensional data often contain multiple facets, and several clustering patterns (views) can co-exist under different feature subspaces. While multi-view clustering algorithms were proposed, the uncertainty quantification remains difficult --- a particular challenge is in the high complexity of estimating the cluster assignment probability under each view, or/and to efficiently share information across views. In this article, we propose an empirical Bayes approach --- viewing the similarity matrices generated over subspaces as rough first-stage estimates for co-assignment probabilities, in its Kullback-Leibler neighborhood we obtain a refined low-rank soft cluster graph, formed by the pairwise product of simplex coordinates. Interestingly, each simplex coordinate directly encodes the cluster assignment uncertainty. For multi-view clustering, we equip each similarity matrix with a mixed membership over a small number of latent views, leading to effective dimension reduction. With a high model flexibility, the estimation can be succinctly re-parameterized as a continuous optimization problem, hence enjoys gradient-based computation. Theory establishes the connection of this model to random cluster graph under multiple views. Compared to single-view clustering approaches, substantially more interpretable results are obtained when clustering brains from human traumatic brain injury study, using high-dimensional gene expression data. KEY WORDS: Co-regularized Clustering, Consensus, PAC-Bayes, Random Cluster Graph, Variable Selection


Transferability of Operational Status Classification Models Among Different Wind Turbine Typesq

arXiv.org Machine Learning

A detailed understanding of wind turbine performance status classification can improve operations and maintenance in the wind energy industry. Due to different engineering properties of wind turbines, the standard supervised learning models used for classification do not generalize across data sets obtained from different wind sites. We propose two methods to deal with the transferability of the trained models: first, data normalization in the form of power curve alignment, and second, a robust method based on convolutional neural networks and feature-space extension. We demonstrate the success of our methods on real-world data sets with industrial applications. Keywords: Machine learning, classification, generalization, CNN, wind turbine, wind energy 1. Introduction Classification of operational status is an important step for performance analysis of wind farms from data of SCADA (Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition) type.


Exact slice sampler for Hierarchical Dirichlet Processes

arXiv.org Machine Learning

We propose an exact slice sampler for Hierarchical Dirichlet process (HDP) and its associated mixture models (Teh et al., 2006). Although there are existing MCMC algorithms for sampling from the HDP, a slice sampler has been missing from the literature. Slice sampling is well-known for its desirable properties including its fast mixing and its natural potential for parallelization. On the other hand, the hierarchical nature of HDPs poses challenges to adopting a full-fledged slice sampler that automatically truncates all the infinite measures involved without ad-hoc modifications. In this work, we adopt the powerful idea of Bayesian variable augmentation to address this challenge. By introducing new latent variables, we obtain a full factorization of the joint distribution that is suitable for slice sampling. Our algorithm has several appealing features such as (1) fast mixing; (2) remaining exact while allowing natural truncation of the underlying infinite-dimensional measures, as in (Kalli et al., 2011), resulting in updates of only a finite number of necessary atoms and weights in each iteration; and (3) being naturally suited to parallel implementations. The underlying principle for joint factorization of the full likelihood is simple and can be applied to many other settings, such as designing sampling algorithms for general dependent Dirichlet process (DDP) models.