Machine learning can help personalized decision support by learning models to predict individual treatment effects (ITE). This work studies the reliability of prediction-based decision-making in a task of deciding which action $a$ to take for a target unit after observing its covariates $\tilde{x}$ and predicted outcomes $\hat{p}(\tilde{y} \mid \tilde{x}, a)$. An example case is personalized medicine and the decision of which treatment to give to a patient. A common problem when learning these models from observational data is imbalance, that is, difference in treated/control covariate distributions, which is known to increase the upper bound of the expected ITE estimation error. We propose to assess the decision-making reliability by estimating the ITE model's Type S error rate, which is the probability of the model inferring the sign of the treatment effect wrong. Furthermore, we use the estimated reliability as a criterion for active learning, in order to collect new (possibly expensive) observations, instead of making a forced choice based on unreliable predictions. We demonstrate the effectiveness of this decision-making aware active learning in two decision-making tasks: in simulated data with binary outcomes and in a medical dataset with synthetic and continuous treatment outcomes.

There is a growing body of work that proposes methods for mitigating bias in machine learning systems. These methods typically rely on access to protected attributes such as race, gender, or age. However, this raises two significant challenges: (1) protected attributes may not be available or it may not be legal to use them, and (2) it is often desirable to simultaneously consider multiple protected attributes, as well as their intersections. In the context of mitigating bias in occupation classification, we propose a method for discouraging correlation between the predicted probability of an individual's true occupation and a word embedding of their name. This method leverages the societal biases that are encoded in word embeddings, eliminating the need for access to protected attributes. Crucially, it only requires access to individuals' names at training time and not at deployment time. We evaluate two variations of our proposed method using a large-scale dataset of online biographies. We find that both variations simultaneously reduce race and gender biases, with almost no reduction in the classifier's overall true positive rate.

Weighted log-rank tests are arguably the most widely used tests by practitioners for the two-sample problem in the context of right-censored data. Many approaches have been considered to make weighted log-rank tests more robust against a broader family of alternatives, among them: considering linear combinations of weighted log-rank tests or taking the maximum between a finite collection of them. In this paper, we propose as test-statistic the supremum of a collection of (potentially infinite) weight-indexed log-rank tests where the index space is the unit ball of a reproducing kernel Hilbert space (RKHS). By using the good properties of the RKHS's we provide an exact and simple evaluation of the test-statistic and establish relationships between previous tests in the literature. Additionally, we show that for a special family of RKHS's, the proposed test is omnibus. We finalise by performing an empirical evaluation of the proposed methodology and show an application to a real data scenario.

This study investigates the effects of Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling in unsupervised Maximum Likelihood (ML) learning. Our attention is restricted to the family of unnormalized probability densities for which the negative log density (or energy function) is a ConvNet. In general, we find that many of the techniques used to stabilize training in previous studies can have the opposite effect. Stable ML learning with a ConvNet potential can be achieved with only a few hyper-parameters and no regularization. Using this minimal framework, we identify a variety of ML learning outcomes that depend on the implementation of MCMC sampling. On one hand, we show that it is easy to train an energy-based model which can sample realistic images with short-run Langevin. ML can be effective and stable even when MCMC samples have much higher energy than true steady-state samples throughout training. Based on this insight, we introduce an ML method with purely noise-initialized MCMC, high-quality short-run synthesis, and the same budget as ML with informative MCMC initialization such as CD or PCD. Unlike previous models, our model can obtain realistic high-diversity samples from a noise signal after training with no auxiliary networks. On the other hand, ConvNet potentials learned with highly non-convergent MCMC do not have a valid steady-state and cannot be considered approximate unnormalized densities of the training data because long-run MCMC samples differ greatly from observed images. We show that it is much harder to train a ConvNet potential to learn a steady-state over realistic images. To our knowledge, long-run MCMC samples of all previous models lose the realism of short-run samples. With correct tuning of Langevin noise, we train the first ConvNet potentials for which long-run and steady-state MCMC samples are realistic images.

On the one hand, nowadays, fake news articles are easily propagated through various online media platforms and have become a grand threat to the trustworthiness of information. On the other hand, our understanding of the language of fake news is still minimal. Incorporating hierarchical discourse-level structure of fake and real news articles is one crucial step toward a better understanding of how these articles are structured. Nevertheless, this has rarely been investigated in the fake news detection domain and faces tremendous challenges. First, existing methods for capturing discourse-level structure rely on annotated corpora which are not available for fake news datasets. Second, how to extract out useful information from such discovered structures is another challenge. To address these challenges, we propose Hierarchical Discourse-level Structure for Fake news detection. HDSF learns and constructs a discourse-level structure for fake/real news articles in an automated and data-driven manner. Moreover, we identify insightful structure-related properties, which can explain the discovered structures and boost our understating of fake news. Conducted experiments show the effectiveness of the proposed approach. Further structural analysis suggests that real and fake news present substantial differences in the hierarchical discourse-level structures.

Machine learning pipeline potentially consists of several stages of operations like data preprocessing, feature engineering and machine learning model training. Each operation has a set of hyper-parameters, which can become irrelevant for the pipeline when the operation is not selected. This gives rise to a hierarchical conditional hyper-parameter space. To optimize this mixed continuous and discrete conditional hierarchical hyper-parameter space, we propose an efficient pipeline search and configuration algorithm which combines the power of Reinforcement Learning and Bayesian Optimization. Empirical results show that our method performs favorably compared to state of the art methods like Auto-sklearn , TPOT, Tree Parzen Window, and Random Search.

Unsupervised approaches to learning in neural networks are of substantial interest for furthering artificial intelligence, both because they would enable the training of networks without the need for large numbers of expensive annotations, and because they would be better models of the kind of general-purpose learning deployed by humans. However, unsupervised networks have long lagged behind the performance of their supervised counterparts, especially in the domain of large-scale visual recognition. Recent developments in training deep convolutional embeddings to maximize non-parametric instance separation and clustering objectives have shown promise in closing this gap. Here, we describe a method that trains an embedding function to maximize a metric of local aggregation, causing similar data instances to move together in the embedding space, while allowing dissimilar instances to separate. This aggregation metric is dynamic, allowing soft clusters of different scales to emerge. We evaluate our procedure on several large-scale visual recognition datasets, achieving state-of-the-art unsupervised transfer learning performance on object recognition in ImageNet, scene recognition in Places 205, and object detection in PASCAL VOC.

Domain randomization is a popular technique for improving domain transfer, often used in a zero-shot setting when the target domain is unknown or cannot easily be used for training. In this work, we empirically examine the effects of domain randomization on agent generalization. Our experiments show that domain randomization may lead to suboptimal, high-variance policies, which we attribute to the uniform sampling of environment parameters. We propose Active Domain Randomization, a novel algorithm that learns a parameter sampling strategy. Our method looks for the most informative environment variations within the given randomization ranges by leveraging the discrepancies of policy rollouts in randomized and reference environment instances. We find that training more frequently on these instances leads to better overall agent generalization. In addition, when domain randomization and policy transfer fail, Active Domain Randomization offers more insight into the deficiencies of both the chosen parameter ranges and the learned policy, allowing for more focused debugging. Our experiments across various physics-based simulated and a real-robot task show that this enhancement leads to more robust, consistent policies.

We use a geometric digraph family called class cover catch digraphs (CCCDs) to tackle the class imbalance problem in statistical classification. CCCDs provide graph theoretic solutions to the class cover problem and have been employed in classification. We assess the classification performance of CCCD classifiers by extensive Monte Carlo simulations, comparing them with other classifiers commonly used in the literature. In particular, we show that CCCD classifiers perform relatively well when one class is more frequent than the other in a two-class setting, an example of the class imbalance problem. We also point out the relationship between class imbalance and class overlapping problems, and their influence on the performance of CCCD classifiers and other classification methods as well as some state-of-the-art algorithms which are robust to class imbalance by construction. Experiments on both simulated and real data sets indicate that CCCD classifiers are robust to the class imbalance problem. CCCDs substantially undersample from the majority class while preserving the information on the discarded points during the undersampling process. Many state-of-the-art methods, however, keep this information by means of ensemble classifiers, but CCCDs yield only a single classifier with the same property, making it both appealing and fast.

In the semantic segmentation of street scenes the reliability of the prediction and therefore uncertainty measures are of highest interest. We present a method that generates for each input image a hierarchy of nested crops around the image center and presents these, all re-scaled to the same size, to a neural network for semantic segmentation. The resulting softmax outputs are then post processed such that we can investigate mean and variance over all image crops as well as mean and variance of uncertainty heat maps obtained from pixel-wise uncertainty measures, like the entropy, applied to each crop's softmax output. In our tests, we use the publicly available DeepLabv3+ MobilenetV2 network (trained on the Cityscapes dataset) and demonstrate that the incorporation of crops improves the quality of the prediction and that we obtain more reliable uncertainty measures. These are then aggregated over predicted segments for either classifying between IoU=0 and IoU>0 (meta classification) or predicting the IoU via linear regression (meta regression). The latter yields reliable performance estimates for segmentation networks, in particular useful in the absence of ground truth. For the task of meta classification we obtain a classification accuracy of $81.93\%$ and an AUROC of $89.89\%$. For meta regression we obtain an $R^2$ value of $84.77\%$. These results yield significant improvements compared to other approaches.