Volterra series are especially useful for nonlinear system identification, also thanks to their capability to approximate a broad range of input-output maps. However, their identification from a finite set of data is hard, due to the curse of dimensionality. Recent approaches have shown how regularized kernel-based methods can be useful for this task. In this paper, we propose a new regularization network for Volterra models identification. It relies on a new kernel given by the product of basic building blocks. Each block contains some unknown parameters that can be estimated from data using marginal likelihood optimization. In comparison with other algorithms proposed in the literature, numerical experiments show that our approach allows to better select the monomials that really influence the system output, much increasing the prediction capability of the model.

Subsequent work developed finite-sample risk bounds for "Bayesian" learning algorithms which specify a distribution over the model [14]. These bounds are controlled using the empirical risk and the relative entropy between "prior" and "posterior" distributions, and hold uniformly over the choice of the latter, meaning that the guarantees hold for data-dependent posteriors, hence the naming. Furthermore, choosing the posterior to minimize PAC-Bayesian risk bounds leads to practical learning algorithms which have seen numerous successful applications [3]. Following this framework, a tremendous amount of work has been done to refine, extend, and apply the PAC-Bayesian framework to new learning problems. Tight risk bounds for bounded losses are due to Seeger [16] and Maurer [12], with the former work applying them to Gaussian processes.

Technology is changing how we practice medicine. Sensors and wearables are getting smaller and cheaper, and algorithms are becoming powerful enough to predict medical outcomes. Yet despite rapid advances, healthcare lags behind other industries in truly putting these technologies to use. A major barrier to entry is the cross-disciplinary approach required to create such tools, requiring knowledge from many people across many fields. We aim to drive the field forward by unpacking that barrier, providing a brief introduction to core concepts and terms that define digital medicine. Specifically, we contrast "clinical research" versus routine "clinical care," outlining the security, ethical, regulatory, and legal issues developers must consider as digital medicine products go to market. We classify types of digital measurements and how to use and validate these measures in different settings. To make this resource engaging and accessible, we have included illustrations and figures ...

Field canals improvement projects (FCIPs) are one of the ambitious projects constructed to save fresh water. To finance this project, Conceptual cost models are important to accurately predict preliminary costs at the early stages of the project. The first step is to develop a conceptual cost model to identify key cost drivers affecting the project. Therefore, input variables selection remains an important part of model development, as the poor variables selection can decrease model precision. The study discovered the most important drivers of FCIPs based on a qualitative approach and a quantitative approach. Subsequently, the study has developed a parametric cost model based on machine learning methods such as regression methods, artificial neural networks, fuzzy model and case-based reasoning.

We present a probabilistic analysis of the long-time behaviour of the nonlocal, diffusive equations with a gradient flow structure in 2-Wasserstein metric, namely, the Mean-Field Langevin Dynamics (MFLD). Our work is motivated by a desire to provide a theoretical underpinning for the convergence of stochastic gradient type algorithms widely used for non-convex learning tasks such as training of deep neural networks. The key insight is that the certain class of the finite dimensional non-convex problems becomes convex when lifted to infinite dimensional space of measures. We leverage this observation and show that the corresponding energy functional defined on the space of probability measures has a unique minimiser which can be characterised by a first order condition using the notion of linear functional derivative. Next, we show that the flow of marginal laws induced by the MFLD converges to the stationary distribution which is exactly the minimiser of the energy functional. We show that this convergence is exponential under conditions that are satisfied for highly regularised learning tasks. At the heart of our analysis is a pathwise perspective on Otto calculus used in gradient flow literature which is of independent interest. Our proof of convergence to stationary probability measure is novel and it relies on a generalisation of LaSalle's invariance principle. Importantly we do not assume that interaction potential of MFLD is of convolution type nor that has any particular symmetric structure. This is critical for applications. Finally, we show that the error between finite dimensional optimisation problem and its infinite dimensional limit is of order one over the number of parameters.

As artificial intelligence plays an increasingly important role in our society, there are ethical and moral obligations for both businesses and researchers to ensure that their machine learning models are designed, deployed, and maintained responsibly. These models need to be rigorously audited for fairness, robustness, transparency, and interpretability. A variety of methods have been developed that focus on these issues in isolation, however, managing these methods in conjunction with model development can be cumbersome and timeconsuming. In this paper, we introduce a unified and model-agnostic approach to address these issues: Counterfactual Explanations for Robustness, Transparency, Interpretability, and Fairness of Artificial Intelligence models (CERTIFAI). Unlike previous methods in this domain, CERTIFAI is a general tool that can be applied to any black-box model and any type of input data. Given a model and an input instance, CERTIFAI uses a custom genetic algorithm to generate counterfactuals: instances close to the input that change the prediction of the model. We demonstrate how these counterfactuals can be used to examine issues of robustness, interpretability, transparency, and fairness. Additionally, we introduce CERScore, the first black-box model robustness score that performs comparably to methods that have access to model internals.

The recently proposed Lottery Ticket Hypothesis of Frankle and Carbin (2019) suggests that the performance of over-parameterized deep networks is due to the random initialization seeding the network with a small fraction of favorable weights. These weights retain their dominant status throughout training -- in a very real sense, this sub-network "won the lottery" during initialization. The authors find sub-networks via unstructured magnitude pruning with 85-95% of parameters removed that train to the same accuracy as the original network at a similar speed, which they call winning tickets. In this paper, we extend the Lottery Ticket Hypothesis to a variety of transfer learning tasks. We show that sparse sub-networks with approximately 90-95% of weights removed achieve (and often exceed) the accuracy of the original dense network in several realistic settings. We experimentally validate this by transferring the sparse representation found via pruning on CIFAR-10 to SmallNORB and FashionMNIST for object recognition tasks.

Distributionally Robust Optimization (DRO) has been shown to provide a flexible framework for decision making under uncertainty and statistical estimation. For example, recent works in DRO have shown that popular statistical estimators can be interpreted as the solutions of suitable formulated data-driven DRO problems. In turn, this connection is used to optimally select tuning parameters in terms of a principled approach informed by robustness considerations. This paper contributes to this growing literature, connecting DRO and statistics, by showing how boosting algorithms can be studied via DRO. We propose a boosting type algorithm, named DRO-Boosting, as a procedure to solve our DRO formulation. Our DRO-Boosting algorithm recovers Adaptive Boosting (AdaBoost) in particular, thus showing that AdaBoost is effectively solving a DRO problem. We apply our algorithm to a financial dataset on credit card default payment prediction. We find that our approach compares favorably to alternative boosting methods which are widely used in practice.

One of the core problems in variational inference is a choice of approximate posterior distribution. It is crucial to trade-off between efficient inference with simple families as mean-field models and accuracy of inference. We propose a variant of a greedy approximation of the posterior distribution with tractable base learners. Using Max-Entropy approach, we obtain a well-defined optimization problem. We demonstrate the ability of the method to capture complex multimodal posterior via continual learning setting for neural networks.

Semantic Embeddings are a popular way to represent knowledge in the field of zero-shot learning. We observe their interpretability and discuss their potential utility in a safety-critical context. Concretely, we propose to use them to add introspection and error detection capabilities to neural network classifiers. First, we show how to create embeddings from symbolic domain knowledge. We discuss how to use them for interpreting mispredictions and propose a simple error detection scheme. We then introduce the concept of semantic distance: a real-valued score that measures confidence in the semantic space. We evaluate this score on a traffic sign classifier and find that it achieves near state-of-the-art performance, while being significantly faster to compute than other confidence scores. Our approach requires no changes to the original network and is thus applicable to any task for which domain knowledge is available.