This paper extends the class of ordinal regression models with a structured interpretation of the problem by applying a novel treatment of encoded labels. The net effect of this is to transform the underlying problem from an ordinal regression task to a (structured) classification task which we solve with conditional random fields, thereby achieving a coherent and probabilistic model in which all model parameters are jointly learnt. Importantly, we show that although we have cast ordinal regression to classification, our method still fall within the class of decomposition methods in the ordinal regression ontology. This is an important link since our experience is that many applications of machine learning to healthcare ignores completely the important nature of the label ordering, and hence these approaches should considered naive in this ontology. We also show that our model is flexible both in how it adapts to data manifolds and in terms of the operations that are available for practitioner to execute. Our empirical evaluation demonstrates that the proposed approach overwhelmingly produces superior and often statistically significant results over baseline approaches on forty popular ordinal regression models, and demonstrate that the proposed model significantly out-performs baselines on synthetic and real datasets. Our implementation, together with scripts to reproduce the results of this work, will be available on a public GitHub repository.

Sales forecasts are crucial for the E-commerce business. State-of-the-art techniques typically apply only univariate methods to make prediction for each series independently. However, due to the short nature of sales times series in E-commerce, univariate methods don't apply well. In this article, we propose a global model which outperforms state-of-the-art models on real dataset. It is achieved by using Tree Boosting Methods that exploit non-linearity and cross-series information. We also proposed a preprocessing framework to overcome the inherent difficulties in the E-commerce data. In particular, we use different schemes to limit the impact of the volatility of the data.

Graph Networks are used to make decisions in potentially complex scenarios but it is usually not obvious how or why they made them. In this work, we study the explainability of Graph Network decisions using two main classes of techniques, gradient-based and decomposition-based, on a toy dataset and a chemistry task. Our study sets the ground for future development as well as application to real-world problems.

Eliciting labels from crowds is a potential way to obtain large labeled data. Despite a variety of methods developed for learning from crowds, a key challenge remains unsolved: \emph{learning from crowds without knowing the information structure among the crowds a priori, when some people of the crowds make highly correlated mistakes and some of them label effortlessly (e.g. randomly)}. We propose an information theoretic approach, Max-MIG, for joint learning from crowds, with a common assumption: the crowdsourced labels and the data are independent conditioning on the ground truth. Max-MIG simultaneously aggregates the crowdsourced labels and learns an accurate data classifier. Furthermore, we devise an accurate data-crowds forecaster that employs both the data and the crowdsourced labels to forecast the ground truth. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first algorithm that solves the aforementioned challenge of learning from crowds. In addition to the theoretical validation, we also empirically show that our algorithm achieves the new state-of-the-art results in most settings, including the real-world data, and is the first algorithm that is robust to various information structures. Codes are available at \hyperlink{https://github.com/Newbeeer/Max-MIG}{https://github.com/Newbeeer/Max-MIG}

Electronic Health Records (EHRs) have been heavily used to predict various downstream clinical tasks such as readmission or mortality. One of the modalities in EHRs, clinical notes, has not been fully explored for these tasks due to its unstructured and inexplicable nature. Although recent advances in deep learning (DL) enables models to extract interpretable features from unstructured data, they often require a large amount of training data. However, many tasks in medical domains inherently consist of small sample data with lengthy documents; for a kidney transplant as an example, data from only a few thousand of patients are available and each patient's document consists of a couple of millions of words in major hospitals. Thus, complex DL methods cannot be applied to these kinds of domains. In this paper, we present a comprehensive ensemble model using vector space modeling and topic modeling. Our proposed model is evaluated on the readmission task of kidney transplant patients and improves 0.0211 in terms of c-statistics from the previous state-of-the-art approach using structured data, while typical DL methods fail to beat this approach. The proposed architecture provides the interpretable score for each feature from both modalities, structured and unstructured data, which is shown to be meaningful through a physician's evaluation.

We propose a framework for the greedy approximation of high-dimensional Bayesian inference problems, through the composition of multiple \emph{low-dimensional} transport maps or flows. Our framework operates recursively on a sequence of ``residual'' distributions, given by pulling back the posterior through the previously computed transport maps. The action of each map is confined to a low-dimensional subspace that we identify by minimizing an error bound. At each step, our approach thus identifies (i) a relevant subspace of the residual distribution, and (ii) a low-dimensional transformation between a restriction of the residual onto this subspace and a standard Gaussian. We prove weak convergence of the approach to the posterior distribution, and we demonstrate the algorithm on a range of challenging inference problems in differential equations and spatial statistics.

Beyond existing multi-view clustering, this paper studies a more realistic clustering scenario, referred to as incomplete multi-view clustering, where a number of data instances are missing in certain views. To tackle this problem, we explore spectral perturbation theory. In this work, we show a strong link between perturbation risk bounds and incomplete multi-view clustering. That is, as the similarity matrix fed into spectral clustering is a quantity bounded in magnitude O(1), we transfer the missing problem from data to similarity and tailor a matrix completion method for incomplete similarity matrix. Moreover, we show that the minimization of perturbation risk bounds among different views maximizes the final fusion result across all views. This provides a solid fusion criteria for multi-view data. We motivate and propose a Perturbation-oriented Incomplete multi-view Clustering (PIC) method. Experimental results demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method.

We work on the task of automatically designing a treatment plan from the findings included in the medical certificate written by the dentist. To develop an artificial intelligence system that deals with free-form certificates written by dentists, we annotate the findings and utilized the natural language processing approach. As a result of the experiment using 990 certificates, 0.585 F1-score was achieved for the task of extracting orthodontic problems from findings, and 0.584 correlation coefficient with the human ranking was achieved for the treatment prioritization task.

Leave-one-out cross validation (LOOCV) can be particularly accurate among CV variants for estimating out-of-sample error. Unfortunately, LOOCV requires re-fitting a model $N$ times for a dataset of size $N$. To avoid this prohibitive computational expense, a number of authors have proposed approximations to LOOCV. These approximations work well when the unknown parameter is of small, fixed dimension but suffer in high dimensions; they incur a running time roughly cubic in the dimension, and, in fact, we show their accuracy significantly deteriorates in high dimensions. We demonstrate that these difficulties can be surmounted in $\ell_1$-regularized generalized linear models when we assume that the unknown parameter, while high dimensional, has a small support. In particular, we show that, under interpretable conditions, the support of the recovered parameter does not change as each datapoint is left out. This result implies that the previously proposed heuristic of only approximating CV along the support of the recovered parameter has running time and error that scale with the (small) support size even when the full dimension is large. Experiments on synthetic and real data support the accuracy of our approximations.

The capability to perform facial analysis from video sequences has significant potential to positively impact in many areas of life. One such area relates to the medical domain to specifically aid in the diagnosis and rehabilitation of patients with facial palsy. With this application in mind, this paper presents an end-to-end framework, named 3DPalsyNet, for the tasks of mouth motion recognition and facial palsy grading. 3DPalsyNet utilizes a 3D CNN architecture with a ResNet backbone for the prediction of these dynamic tasks. Leveraging transfer learning from a 3D CNNs pre-trained on the Kinetics data set for general action recognition, the model is modified to apply joint supervised learning using center and softmax loss concepts. 3DPalsyNet is evaluated on a test set consisting of individuals with varying ranges of facial palsy and mouth motions and the results have shown an attractive level of classification accuracy in these task of 82% and 86% respectively. The frame duration and the loss function affect was studied in terms of the predictive qualities of the proposed 3DPalsyNet, where it was found shorter frame duration's of 8 performed best for this specific task. Centre loss and softmax have shown improvements in spatio-temporal feature learning than softmax loss alone, this is in agreement with earlier work involving the spatial domain.