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 Statistical Learning


Data-Driven Machine Learning Techniques for Self-healing in Cellular Wireless Networks: Challenges and Solutions

arXiv.org Machine Learning

For enabling automatic deployment and management of cellular networks, the concept of self-organizing network (SON) was introduced. SON capabilities can enhance network performance, improve service quality, and reduce operational and capital expenditure (OPEX/CAPEX). As an important component in SON, self-healing is defined as a network paradigm where the faults of target networks are mitigated or recovered by automatically triggering a series of actions such as detection, diagnosis and compensation. Data-driven machine learning has been recognized as a powerful tool to bring intelligence into network and to realize self-healing. However, there are major challenges for practical applications of machine learning techniques for self-healing. In this article, we first classify these challenges into five categories: 1) data imbalance, 2) data insufficiency, 3) cost insensitivity, 4) non-real-time response, and 5) multi-source data fusion. Then we provide potential technical solutions to address these challenges. Furthermore, a case study of cost-sensitive fault detection with imbalanced data is provided to illustrate the feasibility and effectiveness of the suggested solutions.


SQIL: Imitation Learning via Regularized Behavioral Cloning

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Learning to imitate expert behavior given action demonstrations containing high-dimensional, continuous observations and unknown dynamics is a difficult problem in robotic control. Simple approaches based on behavioral cloning (BC) suffer from state distribution shift, while more complex methods that generalize to out-of-distribution states can be difficult to use, since they typically involve adversarial optimization. We propose an alternative that combines the simplicity of BC with the robustness of adversarial imitation learning. The key insight is that under the maximum entropy model of expert behavior, BC corresponds to fitting a soft Q function that maximizes the likelihood of observed actions. This perspective suggests a way to regularize BC so that it generalizes to out-of-distribution states: combine the standard maximum-likelihood objective with a penalty on the soft Bellman error of the soft Q function. We show that this penalty term gives the agent an incentive to take actions that lead it back to demonstrated states when it encounters new states. Experiments show that our method outperforms BC and GAIL on a variety of image-based and low-dimensional environments in Box2D, Atari, and MuJoCo.


Support vector machines on the D-Wave quantum annealer

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Kernel-based support vector machines (SVMs) are supervised machine learning algorithms for classification and regression problems. We present a method to train SVMs on a D-Wave 2000Q quantum annealer and study its performance in comparison to SVMs trained on conventional computers. The method is applied to both synthetic data and real data obtained from biology experiments. We find that the quantum annealer produces an ensemble of different solutions that often generalizes better to unseen data than the single global minimum of an SVM trained on a conventional computer, especially in cases where only limited training data is available. For cases with more training data than currently fits on the quantum annealer, we show that a combination of classifiers for subsets of the data almost always produces stronger joint classifiers than the conventional SVM for the same parameters.


Distributionally Robust Counterfactual Risk Minimization

arXiv.org Machine Learning

This manuscript introduces the idea of using Distributionally Robust Optimization (DRO) for the Counterfactual Risk Minimization (CRM) problem. Tapping into a rich existing literature, we show that DRO is a principled tool for counterfactual decision making. We also show that well-established solutions to the CRM problem like sample variance penalization schemes are special instances of a more general DRO problem. In this unifying framework, a variety of distributionally robust counterfactual risk estimators can be constructed using various probability distances and divergences as uncertainty measures. We propose the use of Kullback-Leibler divergence as an alternative way to model uncertainty in CRM and derive a new robust counterfactual objective. In our experiments, we show that this approach outperforms the state-of-the-art on four benchmark datasets, validating the relevance of using other uncertainty measures in practical applications.


Stochastic Proximal AUC Maximization

arXiv.org Machine Learning

In this paper we consider the problem of maximizing the Area under the ROC curve (AUC) which is a widely used performance metric in imbalanced classification and anomaly detection. Due to the pairwise nonlinearity of the objective function, classical SGD algorithms do not apply to the task of AUC maximization. We propose a novel stochastic proximal algorithm for AUC maximization which is scalable to large scale streaming data. Our algorithm can accommodate general penalty terms and is easy to implement with favorable $O(d)$ space and per-iteration time complexities. We establish a high-probability convergence rate $O(1/\sqrt{T})$ for the general convex setting, and improve it to a fast convergence rate $O(1/T)$ for the cases of strongly convex regularizers and no regularization term (without strong convexity). Our proof does not need the uniform boundedness assumption on the loss function or the iterates which is more fidelity to the practice. Finally, we perform extensive experiments over various benchmark data sets from real-world application domains which show the superior performance of our algorithm over the existing AUC maximization algorithms.


Learning Landmark-Based Ensembles with Random Fourier Features and Gradient Boosting

arXiv.org Machine Learning

We propose a Gradient Boosting algorithm for learning an ensemble of kernel functions adapted to the task at hand. Unlike state-of-the-art Multiple Kernel Learning techniques that make use of a pre-computed dictionary of kernel functions to select from, at each iteration we fit a kernel by approximating it as a weighted sum of Random Fourier Features (RFF) and by optimizing their barycenter. This allows us to obtain a more versatile method, easier to setup and likely to have better performance. Our study builds on a recent result showing one can learn a kernel from RFF by computing the minimum of a PAC-Bayesian bound on the kernel alignment generalization loss, which is obtained efficiently from a closed-form solution. We conduct an experimental analysis to highlight the advantages of our method w.r.t. both Boosting-based and kernel-learning state-of-the-art methods.


Machine Learning on EPEX Order Books: Insights and Forecasts

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Forecasting electricity prices is an important task in an energy utility and needed not only for proprietary trading but also for the optimisation of power plant production schedules and other technical issues. A promising approach in power price forecasting is based on a recalculation of the order book using forecasts on market fundamentals like demand or renewable infeed. However, this approach requires extensive statistical analysis of market data. In this paper, we examine if and how this statistical work can be reduced using machine learning. Our paper focuses on two research questions: - How can order books from electricity markets be included in machine learning algorithms? - How can order-book-based spot price forecasts be improved using machine learning? We consider the German/Austrian EPEX spot market for electricity. There is a daily auction for electricity with delivery the next day. All 24 hours of the day are traded as separate products.


Agriculture Commodity Arrival Prediction using Remote Sensing Data: Insights and Beyond

arXiv.org Machine Learning

In developing countries like India agriculture plays an extremely important role in the lives of the population. In India, around 80\% of the population depend on agriculture or its by-products as the primary means for employment. Given large population dependency on agriculture, it becomes extremely important for the government to estimate market factors in advance and prepare for any deviation from those estimates. Commodity arrivals to market is an extremely important factor which is captured at district level throughout the country. Historical data and short-term prediction of important variables such as arrivals, prices, crop quality etc. for commodities are used by the government to take proactive steps and decide various policy measures. In this paper, we present a framework to work with short timeseries in conjunction with remote sensing data to predict future commodity arrivals. We deal with extremely high dimensional data which exceed the observation sizes by multiple orders of magnitude. We use cascaded layers of dimensionality reduction techniques combined with regularized regression models for prediction. We present results to predict arrivals to major markets and state wide prices for `Tur' (red gram) crop in Karnataka, India. Our model consistently beats popular ML techniques on many instances. Our model is scalable, time efficient and can be generalized to many other crops and regions. We draw multiple insights from the regression parameters, some of which are important aspects to consider when predicting more complex quantities such as prices in the future. We also combine the insights to generate important recommendations for different government organizations.


Improving Prediction Accuracy in Building Performance Models Using Generative Adversarial Networks (GANs)

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Building performance discrepancies between building design and operation are one of the causes that lead many new designs fail to achieve their goals and objectives. One of main factors contributing to the discrepancy is occupant behaviors. Occupants responding to a new design are influenced by several factors. Existing building performance models (BPMs) ignore or partially address those factors (called contextual factors) while developing BPMs. To potentially reduce the discrepancies and improve the prediction accuracy of BPMs, this paper proposes a computational framework for learning mixture models by using Generative Adversarial Networks (GANs) that appropriately combining existing BPMs with knowledge on occupant behaviors to contextual factors in new designs. Immersive virtual environments (IVEs) experiments are used to acquire data on such behaviors. Performance targets are used to guide appropriate combination of existing BPMs with knowledge on occupant behaviors. The resulting model obtained is called an augmented BPM. Two different experiments related to occupant lighting behaviors are shown as case study. The results reveal that augmented BPMs significantly outperformed existing BPMs with respect to achieving specified performance targets. The case study confirms the potential of the computational framework for improving prediction accuracy of BPMs during design.


Comparing Machine Learning Approaches for Table Recognition in Historical Register Books

arXiv.org Machine Learning

We present in this paper experiments on Table Recognition in hand-written registry books. We first explain how the problem of row and column detection is modeled, and then compare two Machine Learning approaches (Conditional Random Field and Graph Convolutional Network) for detecting these table elements. Evaluation was conducted on death records provided by the Archive of the Diocese of Passau. Both methods show similar results, a 89 F1 score, a quality which allows for Information Extraction. Software and dataset are open source/data.