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 Statistical Learning


Operationalizing Individual Fairness with Pairwise Fair Representations

arXiv.org Machine Learning

We revisit the notion of individual fairness proposed by Dwork et al. A central challenge in operationalizing their approach is the difficulty in eliciting a human specification of a similarity metric. In this paper, we propose an operationalization of individual fairness that does not rely on a human specification of a distance metric. Instead, we propose novel approaches to elicit and leverage side-information on equally deserving individuals to counter subordination between social groups. We model this knowledge as a fairness graph, and learn a unified Pairwise Fair Representation(PFR) of the data that captures both data-driven similarity between individuals and the pairwise side-information in fairness graph. We elicit fairness judgments from a variety of sources, including humans judgments for two real-world datasets on recidivism prediction (COMPAS) and violent neighborhood prediction (Crime & Communities). Our experiments show that the PFR model for operationalizing individual fairness is practically viable.


Sample Adaptive Multiple Kernel Learning for Failure Prediction of Railway Points

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Railway points are among the key components of railway infrastructure. As a part of signal equipment, points control the routes of trains at railway junctions, having a significant impact on the reliability, capacity, and punctuality of rail transport. Traditionally, maintenance of points is based on a fixed time interval or raised after the equipment failures. Instead, it would be of great value if we could forecast points' failures and take action beforehand, minimising any negative effect. To date, most of the existing prediction methods are either lab-based or relying on specially installed sensors which makes them infeasible for large-scale implementation. Besides, they often use data from only one source. We, therefore, explore a new way that integrates multi-source data which are ready to hand to fulfil this task. We conducted our case study based on Sydney Trains rail network which is an extensive network of passenger and freight railways. Unfortunately, the real-world data are usually incomplete due to various reasons, e.g., faults in the database, operational errors or transmission faults. Besides, railway points differ in their locations, types and some other properties, which means it is hard to use a unified model to predict their failures. Aiming at this challenging task, we firstly constructed a dataset from multiple sources and selected key features with the help of domain experts. In this paper, we formulate our prediction task as a multiple kernel learning problem with missing kernels. We present a robust multiple kernel learning algorithm for predicting points failures. Our model takes into account the missing pattern of data as well as the inherent variance on different sets of railway points. Extensive experiments demonstrate the superiority of our algorithm compared with other state-of-the-art methods.


Canonical Correlation Analysis (CCA) Based Multi-View Learning: An Overview

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Multi-view learning (MVL) is a strategy for fusing data from different sources or subsets. Canonical correlation analysis (CCA) is very important in MVL, whose main idea is to map data from different views onto a common space with the maximum correlation. The traditional CCA can only be used to calculate the linear correlation between two views. Moreover, it is unsupervised, and the label information is wasted in supervised learning tasks. Many nonlinear, supervised, or generalized extensions have been proposed to overcome these limitations. However, to our knowledge, there is no up-to-date overview of these approaches. This paper fills this gap, by providing a comprehensive overview of many classical and latest CCA approaches, and describing their typical applications in pattern recognition, multi-modal retrieval and classification, and multi-view embedding.


Beyond DAGs: Modeling Causal Feedback with Fuzzy Cognitive Maps

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Fuzzy cognitive maps (FCMs) model feedback causal relations in interwoven webs of causality and policy variables. FCMs are fuzzy signed directed graphs that allow degrees of causal influence and event occurrence. Such causal models can simulate a wide range of policy scenarios and decision processes. Their directed loops or cycles directly model causal feedback. Their nonlinear dynamics permit forward-chaining inference from input causes and policy options to output effects. Users can add detailed dynamics and feedback links directly to the causal model or infer them with statistical learning laws. Users can fuse or combine FCMs from multiple experts by weighting and adding the underlying fuzzy edge matrices and do so recursively if needed. The combined FCM tends to better represent domain knowledge as the expert sample size increases if the expert sample approximates a random sample. Many causal models use more restrictive directed acyclic graphs (DAGs) and Bayesian probabilities. DAGs do not model causal feedback because they do not contain closed loops. Combining DAGs also tends to produce cycles and thus tends not to produce a new DAG. Combining DAGs tends to produce a FCM. FCM causal influence is also transitive whereas probabilistic causal influence is not transitive in general. Overall: FCMs trade the numerical precision of probabilistic DAGs for pattern prediction, faster and scalable computation, ease of combination, and richer feedback representation. We show how FCMs can apply to problems of public support for insurgency and terrorism and to US-China conflict relations in Graham Allison's Thucydides-trap framework. The appendix gives the textual justification of the Thucydides-trap FCM. It also extends our earlier theorem [Osoba-Kosko2017] to a more general result that shows the transitive and total causal influence that upstream concept nodes exert on downstream nodes.


Adaptive Pricing in Insurance: Generalized Linear Models and Gaussian Process Regression Approaches

arXiv.org Machine Learning

We study the application of dynamic pricing to insurance. We view this as an online revenue management problem where the insurance company looks to set prices to optimize the long-run revenue from selling a new insurance product. We develop two pricing models: an adaptive Generalized Linear Model (GLM) and an adaptive Gaussian Process (GP) regression model. Both balance between exploration, where we choose prices in order to learn the distribution of demands & claims for the insurance product, and exploitation, where we myopically choose the best price from the information gathered so far. The performance of the pricing policies is measured in terms of regret: the expected revenue loss caused by not using the optimal price. As is commonplace in insurance, we model demand and claims by GLMs. In our adaptive GLM design, we use the maximum quasi-likelihood estimation (MQLE) to estimate the unknown parameters. We show that, if prices are chosen with suitably decreasing variability, the MQLE parameters eventually exist and converge to the correct values, which in turn implies that the sequence of chosen prices will also converge to the optimal price. In the adaptive GP regression model, we sample demand and claims from Gaussian Processes and then choose selling prices by the upper confidence bound rule. We also analyze these GLM and GP pricing algorithms with delayed claims. Although similar results exist in other domains, this is among the first works to consider dynamic pricing problems in the field of insurance. We also believe this is the first work to consider Gaussian Process regression in the context of insurance pricing. These initial findings suggest that online machine learning algorithms could be a fruitful area of future investigation and application in insurance.


Graph Embeddings at Scale

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Graph embedding is a popular algorithmic approach for creating vector representations for individual vertices in networks. Training these algorithms at scale is important for creating embeddings that can be used for classification, ranking, recommendation and other common applications in industry. While industrial systems exist for training graph embeddings on large datasets, many of these distributed architectures are forced to partition copious amounts of data and model logic across many worker nodes. In this paper, we propose a distributed infrastructure that completely avoids graph partitioning, dynamically creates size constrained computational graphs across worker nodes, and uses highly efficient indexing operations for updating embeddings that allow the system to function at scale. We show that our system can scale an existing embeddings algorithm - skip-gram - to train on the open-source Friendster network (68 million vertices) and on an internal heterogeneous graph (50 million vertices). We measure the performance of our system on two key quantitative metrics: link-prediction accuracy and rate of convergence. We conclude this work by analyzing how a greater number of worker nodes actually improves our system's performance on the aforementioned metrics and discuss our next steps for rigorously evaluating the embedding vectors produced by our system.


A flexible EM-like clustering algorithm for noisy data

arXiv.org Machine Learning

We design a new robust clustering algorithm that can deal efficiently with noise and outliers in diverse datasets. As an EM-like algorithm, it is based on both estimations of clusters centers and covariances but also on a scale parameter per data-point. This allows the algorithm to accommodate for heavier/lighter tails distributions (in comparison to classical Gaussian distributions) and outliers without significantly loosing efficiency in classical scenarios. Convergence and accuracy of the algorithm are first analyzed by considering synthetic data. Then, we show that the proposed algorithm outperforms other classical unsupervised methods of the literature such as k-means, the EM algorithm and HDBSCAN when applied to real datasets as MNIST, NORB and 20newsgroups.


Selecting the independent coordinates of manifolds with large aspect ratios

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Many manifold embedding algorithms fail apparently when the data manifold has a large aspect ratio (such as a long, thin strip). Here, we formulate success and failure in terms of finding a smooth embedding, showing also that the problem is pervasive and more complex than previously recognized. Mathematically, success is possible under very broad conditions, provided that embedding is done by carefully selected eigenfunctions of the Laplace-Beltrami operator $\Delta$. Hence, we propose a bicriterial Independent Eigencoordinate Selection (IES) algorithm that selects smooth embeddings with few eigenvectors. The algorithm is grounded in theory, has low computational overhead, and is successful on synthetic and large real data.


Tight Sensitivity Bounds For Smaller Coresets

arXiv.org Machine Learning

An $\varepsilon$-coreset for Least-Mean-Squares (LMS) of a matrix $A\in{\mathbb{R}}^{n\times d}$ is a small weighted subset of its rows that approximates the sum of squared distances from its rows to every affine $k$-dimensional subspace of ${\mathbb{R}}^d$, up to a factor of $1\pm\varepsilon$. Such coresets are useful for hyper-parameter tuning and solving many least-mean-squares problems such as low-rank approximation ($k$-SVD), $k$-PCA, Lassso/Ridge/Linear regression and many more. Coresets are also useful for handling streaming, dynamic and distributed big data in parallel. With high probability, non-uniform sampling based on upper bounds on what is known as importance or sensitivity of each row in $A$ yields a coreset. The size of the (sampled) coreset is then near-linear in the total sum of these sensitivity bounds. We provide algorithms that compute provably \emph{tight} bounds for the sensitivity of each input row. It is based on two ingredients: (i) iterative algorithm that computes the exact sensitivity of each point up to arbitrary small precision for (non-affine) $k$-subspaces, and (ii) a general reduction of independent interest from computing sensitivity for the family of affine $k$-subspaces in ${\mathbb{R}}^d$ to (non-affine) $(k+1)$- subspaces in ${\mathbb{R}}^{d+1}$. Experimental results on real-world datasets, including the English Wikipedia documents-term matrix, show that our bounds provide significantly smaller and data-dependent coresets also in practice. Full open source is also provided.


Domain Adaptation via Low-Rank Basis Approximation

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Transfer learning focuses on the reuse of supervised learning models in a new context. Prominent applications can be found in robotics, image processing or web mining. In these areas, learning scenarios change by nature, but often remain related and motivate the reuse of existing supervised models. While the majority of symmetric and asymmetric domain adaptation algorithms utilize all available source and target domain data, we show that domain adaptation requires only a substantial smaller subset. This makes it more suitable for real-world scenarios where target domain data is rare. The presented approach finds a target subspace representation for source and target data to address domain differences by orthogonal basis transfer. We employ Nystr\"om techniques and show the reliability of this approximation without a particular landmark matrix by applying post-transfer normalization. It is evaluated on typical domain adaptation tasks with standard benchmark data.