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 Statistical Learning


PathRank: A Multi-Task Learning Framework to Rank Paths in Spatial Networks

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Modern navigation services often provide multiple paths connecting the same source and destination for users to select. Hence, ranking such paths becomes increasingly important, which directly affects the service quality. We present PathRank, a data-driven framework for ranking paths based on historical trajectories using multi-task learning. If a trajectory used path P from source s to destination d, PathRank considers this as an evidence that P is preferred over all other paths from s to d. Thus, a path that is similar to P should have a larger ranking score than a path that is dissimilar to P. Based on this intuition, PathRank models path ranking as a regression problem, where each path is associated with a ranking score. To enable PathRank, we first propose an effective method to generate a compact set of training data: for each trajectory, we generate a small set of diversified paths. Next, we propose a multi-task learning framework to solve the regression problem. In particular, a spatial network embedding is proposed to embed each vertex to a feature vector by considering both road network topology and spatial properties, such as distances and travel times. Since a path is represented by a sequence of vertices, which is now a sequence of feature vectors after embedding, recurrent neural network is applied to model the sequence. The objective function is designed to consider errors on both ranking scores and spatial properties, making the framework a multi-task learning framework. Empirical studies on a substantial trajectory data set offer insight into the designed properties of the proposed framework and indicating that it is effective and practical.


Nonconvex Regularized Robust Regression with Oracle Properties in Polynomial Time

arXiv.org Machine Learning

This paper investigates tradeoffs among optimization errors, statistical rates of convergence and the effect of heavy-tailed random errors for high-dimensional adaptive Huber regression with nonconvex regularization. When the additive errors in linear models have only bounded second moment, our results suggest that adaptive Huber regression with nonconvex regularization yields statistically optimal estimators that satisfy oracle properties as if the true underlying support set were known beforehand. Computationally, we need as many as O(log s + log log d) convex relaxations to reach such oracle estimators, where s and d denote the sparsity and ambient dimension, respectively. Numerical studies lend strong support to our methodology and theory.


SVGD: A Virtual Gradients Descent Method for Stochastic Optimization

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Inspired by dynamic programming, we propose Stochastic Virtual Gradient Descent (SVGD) algorithm where the Virtual Gradient is defined by computational graph and automatic differentiation. The method is computationally efficient and has little memory requirements. We also analyze the theoretical convergence properties and implementation of the algorithm. Experimental results on multiple datasets and network models show that SVGD has advantages over other stochastic optimization methods.


Incremental Intervention Effects in Studies with Many Timepoints, Repeated Outcomes, and Dropout

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Modern longitudinal studies feature data collected at many timepoints, often of the same order of sample size. Such studies are typically affected by dropout and positivity violations. We tackle these problems by generalizing effects of recent incremental interventions (which shift propensity scores rather than set treatment values deterministically) to accommodate multiple outcomes and subject dropout. We give an identifying expression for incremental effects when dropout is conditionally ignorable (without requiring treatment positivity), and derive the nonparametric efficiency bound for estimating such effects. Then we present efficient nonparametric estimators, showing that they converge at fast parametric rates and yield uniform inferential guarantees, even when nuisance functions are estimated flexibly at slower rates. We also study the efficiency of incremental effects relative to more conventional deterministic effects in a novel infinite time horizon setting, where the number of timepoints grows with sample size, and show that incremental effects yield near-exponential gains in this setup. Finally we conclude with simulations and apply our methods in a study of the effect of low-dose aspirin on pregnancy outcomes.


All Sparse PCA Models Are Wrong, But Some Are Useful. Part I: Computation of Scores, Residuals and Explained Variance

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Sparse Principal Component Analysis (sPCA) is a popular matrix factorization approach based on Principal Component Analysis (PCA) that combines variance maximization and sparsity with the ultimate goal of improving data interpretation. When moving from PCA to sPCA, there are a number of implications that the practitioner needs to be aware of. A relevant one is that scores and loadings in sPCA may not be orthogonal. For this reason, the traditional way of computing scores, residuals and variance explained that is used in the classical PCA cannot directly be applied to sPCA models. This also affects how sPCA components should be visualized. In this paper we illustrate this problem both theoretically and numerically using simulations for several state-of-the-art sPCA algorithms, and provide proper computation of the different elements mentioned. We show that sPCA approaches present disparate and limited performance when modeling noise-free, sparse data. In a follow-up paper, we discuss the theoretical properties that lead to this problem.


Twin Auxiliary Classifiers GAN

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Conditional generative models enjoy remarkable progress over the past few years. One of the popular conditional models is Auxiliary Classifier GAN (AC-GAN), which generates highly discriminative images by extending the loss function of GAN with an auxiliary classifier. However, the diversity of the generated samples by AC-GAN tends to decrease as the number of classes increases, hence limiting its power on large-scale data. In this paper, we identify the source of the low diversity issue theoretically and propose a practical solution to solve the problem. We show that the auxiliary classifier in AC-GAN imposes perfect separability, which is disadvantageous when the supports of the class distributions have significant overlap. To address the issue, we propose Twin Auxiliary Classifiers Generative Adversarial Net (TAC-GAN) that further benefits from a new player that interacts with other players (the generator and the discriminator) in GAN. Theoretically, we demonstrate that TAC-GAN can effectively minimize the divergence between the generated and real-data distributions. Extensive experimental results show that our TAC-GAN can successfully replicate the true data distributions on simulated data, and significantly improves the diversity of class-conditional image generation on real datasets.


On the Semantic Interpretability of Artificial Intelligence Models

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Artificial Intelligence models are becoming increasingly more powerful and accurate, supporting or even replacing humans' decision making. But with increased power and accuracy also comes higher complexity, making it hard for users to understand how the model works and what the reasons behind its predictions are. Humans must explain and justify their decisions, and so do the AI models supporting them in this process, making semantic interpretability an emerging field of study. In this work, we look at interpretability from a broader point of view, going beyond the machine learning scope and covering different AI fields such as distributional semantics and fuzzy logic, among others. We examine and classify the models according to their nature and also based on how they introduce interpretability features, analyzing how each approach affects the final users and pointing to gaps that still need to be addressed to provide more human-centered interpretability solutions.


Bayesian deep learning with hierarchical prior: Predictions from limited and noisy data

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Datasets in engineering applications are often limited and contaminated, mainly due to unavoidable measurement noise and signal distortion. Thus, using conventional data-driven approaches to build a reliable discriminative model, and further applying this identified surrogate to uncertainty analysis remains to be very challenging. A deep learning approach is presented to provide predictions based on limited and noisy data. To address noise perturbation, the Bayesian learning method that naturally facilitates an automatic updating mechanism is considered to quantify and propagate model uncertainties into predictive quantities. Specifically, hierarchical Bayesian modeling (HBM) is first adopted to describe model uncertainties, which allows the prior assumption to be less subjective, while also makes the proposed surrogate more robust. Next, the Bayesian inference is seamlessly integrated into the DL framework, which in turn supports probabilistic programming by yielding a probability distribution of the quantities of interest rather than their point estimates. Variational inference (VI) is implemented for the posterior distribution analysis where the intractable marginalization of the likelihood function over parameter space is framed in an optimization format, and stochastic gradient descent method is applied to solve this optimization problem. Finally, Monte Carlo simulation is used to obtain an unbiased estimator in the predictive phase of Bayesian inference, where the proposed Bayesian deep learning (BDL) scheme is able to offer confidence bounds for the output estimation by analyzing propagated uncertainties. The effectiveness of Bayesian shrinkage is demonstrated in improving predictive performance using contaminated data, and various examples are provided to illustrate concepts, methodologies, and algorithms of this proposed BDL modeling technique.


Applications of a Novel Knowledge Discovery and Data Mining Process Model for Metabolomics

arXiv.org Machine Learning

This work demonstrates the execution of a novel process model for knowledge discovery and data mining for metabolomics (MeKDDaM). It aims to illustrate MeKDDaM process model applicability using four different real-world applications and to highlight its strengths and unique features. The demonstrated applications provide coverage for metabolite profiling, target analysis, and metabolic fingerprinting. The data analysed in these applications were captured by chromatographic separation and mass spectrometry technique (LC-MS), Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy (FT-IR), and nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy (NMR) and involve the analysis of plant, animal, and human samples. The process was executed using both data-driven and hypothesis-driven data mining approaches in order to perform various data mining goals and tasks by applying a number of data mining techniques. The applications were selected to achieve a range of analytical goals and research questions and to provide coverage for metabolite profiling, target analysis, and metabolic fingerprinting using datasets that were captured by NMR, LC-MS, and FT-IR using samples of a plant, animal, and human origin. The process was applied using an implementation environment which was created in order to provide a computer-aided realisation of the process model execution.


Machine Learning based Prediction of Hierarchical Classification of Transposable Elements

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Transposable Elements (TEs) or jumping genes are the DNA sequences that have an intrinsic capability to move within a host genome from one genomic location to another. Studies show that the presence of a TE within or adjacent to a functional gene may alter its expression. TEs can also cause an increase in the rate of mutation and can even mediate duplications and large insertions and deletions in the genome, promoting gross genetic rearrangements. Thus, the proper classification of the identified jumping genes is essential to understand their genetic and evolutionary effects in the genome. While computational methods have been developed that perform either binary classification or multi-label classification of TEs, few studies have focused on their hierarchical classification. The state-of-the-art machine learning classification method utilizes a Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP), a class of neural network, for hierarchical classification of TEs. However, the existing methods have limited accuracy in classifying TEs. A more effective classifier, which can explain the role of TEs in germline and somatic evolution, is needed. In this study, we examine the performance of a variety of machine learning (ML) methods. And eventually, propose a robust approach for the hierarchical classification of TEs, with higher accuracy, using Support Vector Machines (SVM).