Background: Palliative care is referred to a set of programs for patients that suffer life-limiting illnesses. These programs aim to guarantee a minimum level of quality of life (QoL) for the last stage of life. They are currently based on clinical evaluation of risk of one-year mortality. Objectives: The main objective of this work is to develop and validate machine-learning based models to predict the exitus of a patient within the next year using data gathered at hospital admission. Methods: Five machine learning techniques were applied in our study to develop machine-learning predictive models: Support Vector Machines, K-neighbors Classifier, Gradient Boosting Classifier, Random Forest and Multilayer Perceptron. All models were trained and evaluated using the retrospective dataset. The evaluation was performed with five metrics computed by a resampling strategy: Accuracy, the area under the ROC curve, Specificity, Sensitivity, and the Balanced Error Rate. Results: All models for forecasting one-year mortality achieved an AUC ROC from 0.858 to 0.911. Specifically, Gradient Boosting Classifier was the best model, producing an AUC ROC of 0.911 (CI 95%, 0.911 to 0.912), a sensitivity of 0.858 (CI 95%, 0.856 to 0.86) and a specificity of 0.807 (CI 95%, 0.806 to 0808) and a BER of 0.168 (CI 95%, 0.167 to 0.169). Conclusions: The analysis of common information at hospital admission combined with machine learning techniques produced models with competitive discriminative power. Our models reach the best results reported in state of the art. These results demonstrate that they can be used as an accurate data-driven palliative care criteria inclusion.

In an online optimization problem we are required to choose a sequence of points from a fixed feasible subset of $\mathbb{R}^d$. After each point is chosen, a function over the set is revealed and we accumulate payoff equal to the function value at the point. We consider the class of piecewise Lipschitz functions, which is the most general setting considered in the literature for the problem, and arises naturally in various combinatorial algorithm selection problems where utility functions can have sharp discontinuities. The usual performance metric of `static' regret minimizes the gap between the payoff accumulated and that of the best fixed point for the entire duration, and thus fails to capture changing environments. Shifting regret is a useful alternative, which allows for up to $s$ environment shifts. In this work we provide an $O(\sqrt{sdT\log T}+sT^{1-\beta})$ regret bound for $\beta$-dispersed functions, where $\beta$ roughly quantifies the rate at which discontinuities appear in the utility functions in expectation (typically $\beta\ge1/2$ in problems of practical interest). We show this bound is optimal up to sub-logarithmic factors. We further show how to improve the bounds when selecting from a small pool of experts. We empirically demonstrate a key application of our algorithms to online clustering problems, with 15-40% relative gain over static regret based algorithms on popular benchmarks.

Post-hoc interpretability approaches have been proven to be powerful tools to generate explanations for the predictions made by a trained black-box model. However, they create the risk of having explanations that are a result of some artifacts learned by the model instead of actual knowledge from the data. This paper focuses on the case of counterfactual explanations and asks whether the generated instances can be justified, i.e. continuously connected to some ground-truth data. We evaluate the risk of generating unjustified counterfactual examples by investigating the local neighborhoods of instances whose predictions are to be explained and show that this risk is quite high for several datasets. Furthermore, we show that most state of the art approaches do not differentiate justified from unjustified counterfactual examples, leading to less useful explanations.

With the rapid development of computing technology, wearable devices such as smart phones and wristbands make it easy to get access to people's health information including activities, sleep, sports, etc. Smart healthcare achieves great success by training machine learning models on a large quantity of user data. However, there are two critical challenges. Firstly, user data often exists in the form of isolated islands, making it difficult to perform aggregation without compromising privacy security. Secondly, the models trained on the cloud fail on personalization. In this paper, we propose FedHealth, the first federated transfer learning framework for wearable healthcare to tackle these challenges. FedHealth performs data aggregation through federated learning, and then builds personalized models by transfer learning. It is able to achieve accurate and personalized healthcare without compromising privacy and security. Experiments demonstrate that FedHealth produces higher accuracy (5.3% improvement) for wearable activity recognition when compared to traditional methods. FedHealth is general and extensible and has the potential to be used in many healthcare applications.

Floating centroid method (FCM) offers an efficient way to solve a fixed-centroid problem for the neural network classifiers. However, evolutionary computation as its optimization method restrains the FCM to achieve satisfactory performance for different neural network structures, because of the high computational complexity and inefficiency. Traditional gradient-based methods have been extensively adopted to optimize the neural network classifiers. In this study, a gradient-based floating centroid (GDFC) method is introduced to address the fixed centroid problem for the neural network classifiers optimized by gradient-based methods. Furthermore, a new loss function for optimizing GDFC is introduced. The experimental results display that GDFC obtains promising classification performance than the comparison methods on the benchmark datasets.

One of the major problems in natural language processing (NLP) is the word sense disambiguation (WSD) problem. It is t he task of computationally identifying the right sense of a polysemou s word based on its context. Resolving the WSD problem boosts the accurac y of many NLP focused algorithms such as text classification and machi ne translation. In this paper, we introduce a new supervised algorithm for WSD, that is based on Kernel PCA and Semantic Diffusion Kernel, whi ch is called Diffusion Kernel PCA (DKPCA). DKPCA grasps the semant ic similarities within terms, and it is based on PCA. These prop erties enable us to perform feature extraction and dimension reducti on guided by semantic similarities and within the algorithm. Our empiri cal results on SensEval data demonstrate that DKPCA achieves higher or ver y close accuracy results compared to SVM and KPCA with various well-known kernels when the labeled data ratio is meager. Considering t he scarcity of labeled data, whereas large quantities of unlabeled text ual data are easily accessible, these are highly encouraging first resul ts to develop DKPCA further.

One-Shot Neural architecture search (NAS) attracts broad attention recently due to its capacity to reduce the computational hours through weight sharing. However, extensive experiments on several recent works show that there is no positive correlation between the validation accuracy with inherited weights from the supernet and the test accuracy after re-training for One-Shot NAS. Different from devising a controller to find the best performing architecture with inherited weights, this paper focuses on how to sample architectures to train the supernet to make it more predictive. A single-path supernet is adopted, where only a small part of weights are optimized in each step, to reduce the memory demand greatly. Furthermore, we abandon devising complicated reward based architecture sampling controller, and sample architectures to train supernet based on novelty search. An efficient novelty search method for NAS is devised in this paper, and extensive experiments demonstrate the effectiveness and efficiency of our novelty search based architecture sampling method. The best architecture obtained by our algorithm with the same search space achieves the state-of-the-art test error rate of 2.51\% on CIFAR-10 with only 7.5 hours search time in a single GPU, and a validation perplexity of 60.02 and a test perplexity of 57.36 on PTB. We also transfer these search cell structures to larger datasets ImageNet and WikiText-2, respectively.

Recent research has helped to cultivate growing awareness that machine learning systems fueled by big data can create or exacerbate troubling disparities in society. Much of this research comes from outside of the practicing data science community, leaving its members with little concrete guidance to proactively address these concerns. This article introduces issues of discrimination to the data science community on its own terms. In it, we tour the familiar data mining process while providing a taxonomy of common practices that have the potential to produce unintended discrimination. We also survey how discrimination is commonly measured, and suggest how familiar development processes can be augmented to mitigate systems' discriminatory potential. We advocate that data scientists should be intentional about modeling and reducing discriminatory outcomes. Without doing so, their efforts will result in perpetuating any systemic discrimination that may exist, but under a misleading veil of data-driven objectivity.

A collection of $U \: (\in \mathbb{N})$ data vectors is called a $U$-tuple, and the association strength among the vectors of a tuple is termed as the hyperlink weight, that is assumed to be symmetric with respect to permutation of the entries in the index. We herein propose Bregman hyperlink regression (BHLR), which learns a user-specified symmetric similarity function such that it predicts the tuple's hyperlink weight from data vectors stored in the $U$-tuple. Nonlinear functions, such as neural networks, can be employed for the similarity function. BHLR is based on Bregman divergence (BD) and encompasses various existing methods such as logistic regression ($U=1$), Poisson regression ($U=1$), graph embedding ($U=2$), matrix factorization ($U=2$), tensor factorization ($U \geq 2$), and their variants equipped with arbitrary BD. We demonstrate that, regardless of the choice of BD and $U \in \mathbb{N}$, the proposed BHLR is generally (P-1) robust against the distributional misspecification, that is, it asymptotically recovers the underlying true conditional expectation of hyperlink weights given data vectors regardless of its conditional distribution, and (P-2) computationally tractable, that is, it is efficiently computed by stochastic optimization algorithms using a novel generalized minibatch sampling procedure for hyper-relational data. Furthermore, a theoretical guarantee for the optimization is presented. Numerical experiments demonstrate the promising performance of the proposed BHLR.

In this two-part work, we propose an algorithmic framework for solving non-convex problems whose objective function is the sum of a number of smooth component functions plus a convex (possibly non-smooth) or/and smooth (possibly non-convex) regularization function. The proposed algorithm incorporates ideas from several existing approaches such as alternate direction method of multipliers (ADMM), successive convex approximation (SCA), distributed and asynchronous algorithms, and inexact gradient methods. Different from a number of existing approaches, however, the proposed framework is flexible enough to incorporate a class of non-convex objective functions, allow distributed operation with and without a fusion center, and include variance reduced methods as special cases. Remarkably, the proposed algorithms are robust to uncertainties arising from random, deterministic, and adversarial sources. The part I of the paper develops two variants of the algorithm under very mild assumptions and establishes first-order convergence rate guarantees. The proof developed here allows for generic errors and delays, paving the way for different variance-reduced, asynchronous, and stochastic implementations, outlined and evaluated in part II.