--Additive Manufacturing (AM) is a manufacturing paradigm that builds three-dimensional objects from a computer-aided design model by successively adding material layer by layer . AM has become very popular in the past decade due to its utility for fast prototyping such as 3D printing as well as manufacturing functional parts with complex geometries using processes such as laser metal deposition that would be difficult to create using traditional machining. As the process for creating an intricate part for an expensive metal such as Titanium is prohibitive with respect to cost, computational models are used to simulate the behavior of AM processes before the experimental run. However, as the simulations are computationally costly and time-consuming for predicting multiscale multi-physics phenomena in AM, physics-informed data-driven machine-learning systems for predicting the behavior of AM processes are immensely beneficial. Such models accelerate not only multiscale simulation tools but also empower real-time control systems using in-situ data. In this paper, we design and develop essential components of a scientific framework for developing a data-driven model-based real-time control system. Finite element methods are employed for solving time-dependent heat equations and developing the database. The proposed framework uses extremely randomized trees - an ensemble of bagged decision trees as the regression algorithm iteratively using temperatures of prior voxels and laser information as inputs to predict temperatures of subsequent voxels. The models achieve mean absolute percentage errors below 1% for predicting temperature profiles for AM processes. Additive Manufacturing (AM) is a modern manufacturing approach in which digital 3D design data is used to build parts by sequentially depositing layers of materials [1]. AM techniques are becoming very popular compared to traditional approaches because of their success in building complicated designs, fast prototyping, and low-volume or one-of-a-kind productions across many industries. Direct Metal Deposition (DMD) [2] is an AM technology where various materials such as steel or Titanium are used to develop the finished product.

Catastrophic forgetting is a critical challenge in training deep neural networks. Although continual learning has been investigated as a countermeasure to the problem, it often suffers from requirements of additional network components and weak scalability to a large number of tasks. W e propose a novel approach to continual learning by approximating a true loss function based on an asymmetric quadratic function with one of its sides overestimated. Our algorithm is motivated by the empirical observation that updates of network parameters affect target loss functions asymmetrically. In the proposed continual learning framework, we estimate an asymmetric loss function for the tasks considered in the past through a proper overestimation of its unobserved side in training new tasks, while deriving the accurate model parameter for the observed side. In contrast to existing approaches, our method is free from side effects and achieves the state-of-the-art results that are even close to the upper-bound performance on several challenging benchmark datasets.

The recent proliferation of publicly available graph-structured data has sparked an interest in machine learning algorithms for graph data. Since most traditional machine learning algorithms assume data to be tabular, embedding algorithms for mapping graph data to real-valued vector spaces has become an active area of research. Existing graph embedding approaches are based purely on structural information and ignore any semantic information from the underlying domain. In this paper, we demonstrate that semantic information can play a useful role in computing graph embeddings. Specifically, we present a framework for devising embedding strategies aware of domain-specific interpretations of graph nodes and edges, and use knowledge of downstream machine learning tasks to identify relevant graph substructures. Using two real-life domains, we show that our framework yields embeddings that are simple to implement and yet achieve equal or greater accuracy in machine learning tasks compared to domain independent approaches.

Variational Bayes (VB) has become a versatile tool for Bayesian inference in statistics. Nonetheless, the development of the existing VB algorithms is so far generally restricted to the case where the variational parameter space is Euclidean, which hinders the potential broad application of VB methods. This paper extends the scope of VB to the case where the variational parameter space is a Riemannian manifold. We develop, for the first time in the literature, an efficient manifold-based VB algorithm that exploits both the geometric structure of the constraint parameter space and the information geometry of the manifold of VB approximating probability distributions. Our algorithm is provably convergent and achieves a convergence rate of order $\mathcal O(1/\sqrt{T})$ and $\mathcal O(1/T^{2-2\epsilon})$ for a non-convex evidence lower bound function and a strongly retraction-convex evidence lower bound function, respectively. We develop in particular two manifold VB algorithms, Manifold Gaussian VB and Manifold Neural Net VB, and demonstrate through numerical experiments that the proposed algorithms are stable, less sensitive to initialization and compares favourably to existing VB methods.

Developing a reliable parametric cost model at the conceptual stage of the project is crucial for projects managers and decision-makers. Existing methods, such as probabilistic and statistical algorithms have been developed for project cost prediction. However, these methods are unable to produce accurate results for conceptual cost prediction due to small and unstable data samples. Artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) algorithms include numerous models and algorithms for supervised regression applications. Therefore, a comparison analysis for AI models is required to guide practitioners to the appropriate model. The study focuses on investigating twenty artificial intelligence (AI) techniques which are conducted for cost modeling such as fuzzy logic (FL) model, artificial neural networks (ANNs), multiple regression analysis (MRA), case-based reasoning (CBR), hybrid models, and ensemble methods such as scalable boosting trees (XGBoost). Field canals improvement projects (FCIPs) are used as an actual case study to analyze the performance of the applied ML models. Out of 20 AI techniques, the results showed that the most accurate and suitable method is XGBoost with 9.091% and 0.929 based on Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) and adjusted R2. Nonlinear adaptability, handling missing values and outliers, model interpretation and uncertainty have been discussed for the twenty developed AI models. Keywords: Artificial intelligence, Machine learning, ensemble methods, XGBoost, evolutionary fuzzy rules generation, Conceptual cost, and parametric cost model.

This paper develops several average-case reduction techniques to show new hardness results for three central high-dimensional statistics problems, implying a statistical-computational gap induced by robustness, a detection-recovery gap and a universality principle for these gaps. A main feature of our approach is to map to these problems via a common intermediate problem that we introduce, which we call Imbalanced Sparse Gaussian Mixtures. We assume the planted clique conjecture for a version of the planted clique problem where the position of the planted clique is mildly constrained, and from this obtain the following computational lower bounds: (1) a $k$-to-$k^2$ statistical-computational gap for robust sparse mean estimation, providing the first average-case evidence for a conjecture of Li (2017) and Balakrishnan et al. (2017); (2) a tight lower bound for semirandom planted dense subgraph, which shows that a semirandom adversary shifts the detection threshold in planted dense subgraph to the conjectured recovery threshold; and (3) a universality principle for $k$-to-$k^2$ gaps in a broad class of sparse mixture problems that includes many natural formulations such as the spiked covariance model. Our main approach is to introduce several average-case techniques to produce structured and Gaussianized versions of an input graph problem, and then to rotate these high-dimensional Gaussians by matrices carefully constructed from hyperplanes in $\mathbb{F}_r^t$. For our universality result, we introduce a new method to perform an algorithmic change of measure tailored to sparse mixtures. We also provide evidence that the mild promise in our variant of planted clique does not change the complexity of the problem.

Classification-as-a-Service (CaaS) is widely deployed today in machine intelligence stacks for a vastly diverse set of applications including anything from medical prognosis to computer vision tasks to natural language processing to identity fraud detection. The computing power required for training complex models on large datasets to perform inference to solve these problems can be very resource-intensive. A CaaS provider may cheat a customer by fraudulently bypassing expensive training procedures in favor of weaker, less computationally-intensive algorithms which yield results of reduced quality. Given a classification service supplier $S$, intermediary CaaS provider $P$ claiming to use $S$ as a classification backend, and customer $C$, our work addresses the following questions: (i) how can $P$'s claim to be using $S$ be verified by $C$? (ii) how might $S$ make performance guarantees that may be verified by $C$? and (iii) how might one design a decentralized system that incentivizes service proofing and accountability? To this end, we propose a variety of methods for $C$ to evaluate the service claims made by $P$ using probabilistic performance metrics, instance seeding, and steganography. We also propose a method of measuring the robustness of a model using a blackbox adversarial procedure, which may then be used as a benchmark or comparison to a claim made by $S$. Finally, we propose the design of a smart contract-based decentralized system that incentivizes service accountability to serve as a trusted Quality of Service (QoS) auditor.

The learning rate warmup heuristic achieves remarkable success in stabilizing training, accelerating convergence and improving generalization for adaptive stochastic optimization algorithms like RMSprop and Adam. Here, we study its mechanism in details. Pursuing the theory behind warmup, we identify a problem of the adaptive learning rate (i.e., it has problematically large variance in the early stage), suggest warmup works as a variance reduction technique, and provide both empirical and theoretical evidence to verify our hypothesis. We further propose RAdam, a new variant of Adam, by introducing a term to rectify the variance of the adaptive learning rate. Extensive experimental results on image classification, language modeling, and neural machine translation verify our intuition and demonstrate the effectiveness and robustness of our proposed method. All implementations are available at: https://github.com/LiyuanLucasLiu/RAdam.

Tractable yet expressive density estimators are a key building block of probabilistic machine learning. While sum-product networks (SPNs) offer attractive inference capabilities, obtaining structures large enough to fit complex, high-dimensional data has proven challenging. In this paper, we present random sum-product forests (RSPFs), an ensemble approach for mixing multiple randomly generated SPNs. We also introduce residual links, which reference specialized substructures of other component SPNs in order to leverage the context-specific knowledge encoded within them. Our empirical evidence demonstrates that RSPFs provide better performance than their individual components. Adding residual links improves the models further, allowing the resulting ResSPNs to be competitive with commonly used structure learning methods.

We propose a novel method for explaining the predictions of any classifier. In our approach, local explanations are expected to explain both the outcome of a prediction and how that prediction would change if 'things had been different'. Furthermore, we argue that satisfactory explanations cannot be dissociated from a notion and measure of fidelity, as advocated in the early days of neural networks' knowledge extraction. We introduce a definition of fidelity to the underlying classifier for local explanation models which is based on distances to a target decision boundary. A system called CLEAR: Counterfactual Local Explanations via Regression, is introduced and evaluated. CLEAR generates w-counterfactual explanations that state minimum changes necessary to flip a prediction's classification. CLEAR then builds local regression models, using the w-counterfactuals to measure and improve the fidelity of its regressions. By contrast, the popular LIME method, which also uses regression to generate local explanations, neither measures its own fidelity nor generates counterfactuals. CLEAR's regressions are found to have significantly higher fidelity than LIME's, averaging over 45% higher in this paper's four case studies.