Nowadays, the algorithm is acknowledged to be easy to use and to perform very well in general, even in problems involving many predictor variables (see for instance Biau and Scornet (2016) or the introduction to Scornet, Biau and Vert (2015)) ― so well, indeed, that several authors have posed and studied the question of their consistency (see Scornet, Biau and Vert (2015) and the earlier references provided by them). Consistent nonparametric statistical predictors have been known for a long time (e.g. Nadaraya (1964), Watson (1964), Stone (1977), Devroye and Wagner (1980)), but they converge very slowly and their computer implementations tend to be slow, especially when they involve many variables. In view of their comparative accuracy and high speed of implementation, random forests would become even more attractive if they were shown to be consistent under general data ‐ generating mechanisms. Besides, consistency is almost indispensable in applications of statistical prediction to the estimation of'causal effects' based on observational data (e.g.

Variational approaches based on neural networks are showing promise for estimating mutual information (MI) between high dimensional variables. However, they can be difficult to use in practice due to poorly understood bias/variance tradeoffs. We theoretically show that, under some conditions, estimators such as MINE exhibit variance that could grow exponentially with the true amount of underlying MI. We also empirically demonstrate that existing estimators fail to satisfy basic self-consistency properties of MI, such as data processing and additivity under independence. Based on a unified perspective of variational approaches, we develop a new estimator that focuses on variance reduction. Empirical results on standard benchmark tasks demonstrate that our proposed estimator exhibits improved bias-variance trade-offs on standard benchmark tasks.

Refining one's hypotheses in the light of data is a commonplace scientific practice, however, this approach introduces selection bias and can lead to specious statistical analysis. One approach of addressing this phenomena is via conditioning on the selection procedure, i.e., how we have used the data to generate our hypotheses, and prevents information to be used again after selection. Many selective inference (a.k.a. post-selection inference) algorithms typically take this approach but will "over-condition" for sake of tractability. While this practice obtains well calibrated $p$-values, it can incur a major loss in power. In our work, we extend two recent proposals for selecting features using the Maximum Mean Discrepancy and Hilbert Schmidt Independence Criterion to condition on the minimal conditioning event. We show how recent advances in multiscale bootstrap makes conditioning on the minimal selection event possible and demonstrate our proposal over a range of synthetic and real world experiments. Our results show that our proposed test is indeed more powerful in most scenarios.

Many real-world graphs or networks are temporal, e.g., in a social network persons only interact at specific points in time. This information directs dissemination processes on the network, such as the spread of rumors, fake news, or diseases. However, the current state-of-the-art methods for supervised graph classification are designed mainly for static graphs and may not be able to capture temporal information. Hence, they are not powerful enough to distinguish between graphs modeling different dissemination processes. To address this, we introduce a framework to lift standard graph kernels to the temporal domain. Specifically, we explore three different approaches and investigate the trade-offs between loss of temporal information and efficiency. Moreover, to handle large-scale graphs, we propose stochastic variants of our kernels with provable approximation guarantees. We evaluate our methods on a wide range of real-world social networks. Our methods beat static kernels by a large margin in terms of accuracy while still being scalable to large graphs and data sets. Hence, we confirm that taking temporal information into account is crucial for the successful classification of dissemination processes.

Classical supervised classification tasks search for a nonlinear mapping that maps each encoded feature directly to a probability mass over the labels. Such a learning framework typically lacks the intuition that encoded features from the same class tend to be similar and thus has little interpretability for the learned features. In this paper, we propose a novel supervised learning model named Supervised-Encoding Quantizer (SEQ). The SEQ applies a quantizer to cluster and classify the encoded features. We found that the quantizer provides an interpretable graph where each cluster in the graph represents a class of data samples that have a particular style. We also trained a decoder that can decode convex combinations of the encoded features from similar and different clusters and provide guidance on style transfer between sub-classes.

As one of the most ubiquitously applied unsupervised learning methods, clustering has also been known to have a few disadvantages. More specifically, parameters such as the number of clusters and neighborhood radius are what call the `unsupervised` nature of these algorithms into question. Moreover, the stochastic nature of a great number of these algorithms is also a considerable point of weakness. In order to address these issues, we propose DISCERN which can serve as an initialization algorithm for K-Means, finding suitable centroids that increase the performance of K-Means. Following that, the algorithm can estimate the number of clusters if need be. The algorithm does all of that, while maintaining complete robustness and returning the same results at each separate run. We ran experiments on the proposed method processing multiple datasets and the results show its undeniable superiority in terms of results, computational time and robustness when compared to the randomized K-Means and K-Means++ initialization. In addition, the superiority in estimating the number of clusters is also discussed and we prove the lower complexity when compared to methods such as the elbow and silhouette methods in estimating the number of clusters.

In many learning problems, the training and testing data follow different distributions and a particularly common situation is the \textit{covariate shift}. To correct for sampling biases, most approaches, including the popular kernel mean matching (KMM), focus on estimating the importance weights between the two distributions. Reweighting-based methods, however, are exposed to high variance when the distributional discrepancy is large and the weights are poorly estimated. On the other hand, the alternate approach of using nonparametric regression (NR) incurs high bias when the training size is limited. In this paper, we propose and analyze a new estimator that systematically integrates the residuals of NR with KMM reweighting, based on a control-variate perspective. The proposed estimator can be shown to either strictly outperform or match the best-known existing rates for both KMM and NR, and thus is a robust combination of both estimators. The experiments shows the estimator works well in practice.

We address tracking and prediction of multiple moving objects in visual data streams as inference and sampling in a disentangled latent state-space model. By encoding objects separately and including explicit position information in the latent state space, we perform tracking via amortized variational Bayesian inference of the respective latent positions. Inference is implemented in a modular neural framework tailored towards our disentangled latent space. Generative and inference model are jointly learned from observations only. Comparing to related prior work, we empirically show that our Markovian state-space assumption enables faithful and much improved long-term prediction well beyond the training horizon. Further, our inference model correctly decomposes frames into objects, even in the presence of occlusions. Tracking performance is increased significantly over prior art.

We study the problem of recovering clusters from binary user feedback. Items are grouped into initially unknown non-overlapping clusters. To recover these clusters, the learner sequentially presents to users a finite list of items together with a question with a binary answer selected from a fixed finite set. For each of these items, the user provides a random answer whose expectation is determined by the item cluster and the question and by an item-specific parameter characterizing the hardness of classifying the item. The objective is to devise an algorithm with a minimal cluster recovery error rate. We derive problem-specific information-theoretical lower bounds on the error rate satisfied by any algorithm, for both uniform and adaptive (list, question) selection strategies. For uniform selection, we present a simple algorithm built upon K-means whose performance almost matches the fundamental limits. For adaptive selection, we develop an adaptive algorithm that is inspired by the derivation of the information-theoretical error lower bounds, and in turn allocates the budget in an efficient way. The algorithm learns to select items hard to cluster and relevant questions more often. We compare numerically the performance of our algorithms with or without adaptive selection strategy, and illustrate the gain achieved by being adaptive. Our inference problems are motivated by the problem of solving large-scale labeling tasks with minimal effort put on the users. For example, in some of the recent CAPTCHA systems, users clicks (binary answers) can be used to efficiently label images, by optimally finding the best questions to present.

We consider the kernel completion problem with the presence of multiple views in the data. In this context the data samples can be fully missing in some views, creating missing columns and rows to the kernel matrices that are calculated individually for each view. We propose to solve the problem of completing the kernel matrices by transferring the features of the other views to represent the view under consideration. We align the known part of the kernel matrix with a new kernel built from the features of the other views. We are thus able to find generalizable structures in the kernel under completion, and represent it accurately. Its missing values can be predicted with the data available in other views. We illustrate the benefits of our approach with simulated data and multivariate digits dataset, as well as with real biological datasets from studies of pattern formation in early \textit{Drosophila melanogaster} embryogenesis.