Suppose by means of some analysis, we were to deduce that today's value of the DJIA Closing Price may turn out to be a good predictor of tomorrow's Closing Price. To test this theory, we will develop a linear regression model consisting of a single regression variable. This variable will be the time lagged value of the time series. Here are the first few rows of the modified Data Frame. Let's remove the first row to get rid of the NaN: Next let's create our training and test data sets: Plot the model's performance against the test data set: At first glance, this model's performance looks much better than what we got from the mean model.

We consider a novel setting of zeroth order non-convex optimization, where in addition to querying the function value at a given point, we can also duel two points and get the point with the larger function value. We refer to this setting as optimization with dueling-choice bandits since both direct queries and duels are available for optimization. We give the COMP-GP-UCB algorithm based on GP-UCB (Srinivas et al., 2009), where instead of directly querying the point with the maximum Upper Confidence Bound (UCB), we perform a constrained optimization and use comparisons to filter out suboptimal points. COMP-GP-UCB comes with theoretical guarantee of $O(\frac{\Phi}{\sqrt{T}})$ on simple regret where $T$ is the number of direct queries and $\Phi$ is an improved information gain corresponding to a comparison based constraint set that restricts the search space for the optimum. In contrast, in the direct query only setting, $\Phi$ depends on the entire domain. Finally, we present experimental results to show the efficacy of our algorithm.

Improving the performance of click-through rate (CTR) prediction remains one of the core tasks in online advertising systems. With the rise of deep learning, CTR prediction models with deep networks remarkably enhance model capacities. In deep CTR models, exploiting users' historical data is essential for learning users' behaviors and interests. As existing CTR prediction works neglect the importance of the temporal signals when embed users' historical clicking records, we propose a time-aware attention model which explicitly uses absolute temporal signals for expressing the users' periodic behaviors and relative temporal signals for expressing the temporal relation between items. Besides, we propose a regularized adversarial sampling strategy for negative sampling which eases the classification imbalance of CTR data and can make use of the strong guidance provided by the observed negative CTR samples. The adversarial sampling strategy significantly improves the training efficiency, and can be co-trained with the time-aware attention model seamlessly. Experiments are conducted on real-world CTR datasets from both in-station and out-station advertising places.

In this paper, we propose a Deep Reinforcement Learning (RL) framework for task arrangement, which is a critical problem for the success of crowdsourcing platforms. Previous works conduct the personalized recommendation of tasks to workers via supervised learning methods. However, the majority of them only consider the benefit of either workers or requesters independently. In addition, they cannot handle the dynamic environment and may produce sub-optimal results. To address these issues, we utilize Deep Q-Network (DQN), an RL-based method combined with a neural network to estimate the expected long-term return of recommending a task. DQN inherently considers the immediate and future reward simultaneously and can be updated in real-time to deal with evolving data and dynamic changes. Furthermore, we design two DQNs that capture the benefit of both workers and requesters and maximize the profit of the platform. To learn value functions in DQN effectively, we also propose novel state representations, carefully design the computation of Q values, and predict transition probabilities and future states. Experiments on synthetic and real datasets demonstrate the superior performance of our framework.

Traditional text classifiers are limited to predicting over a fixed set of labels. However, in many real-world applications the label set is frequently changing. For example, in intent classification, new intents may be added over time while others are removed. We propose to address the problem of dynamic text classification by replacing the traditional, fixed-size output layer with a learned, semantically meaningful metric space. Here the distances between textual inputs are optimized to perform nearest-neighbor classification across overlapping label sets. Changing the label set does not involve removing parameters, but rather simply adding or removing support points in the metric space. Then the learned metric can be fine-tuned with only a few additional training examples. We demonstrate that this simple strategy is robust to changes in the label space. Furthermore, our results show that learning a non-Euclidean metric can improve performance in the low data regime, suggesting that further work on metric spaces may benefit low-resource research.

--The optimization of electric machines at multiple operating points is crucial for applications that require frequent changes on speeds and loads, such as the electric vehicles, to strive for the machine optimal performance across the entire driving cycle. However, the number of objectives that would need to be optimized would significantly increase with the number of operating points considered in the optimization, thus posting a potential problem in regards to the visualization techniques currently in use, such as in the scatter plots of Pareto fronts, the parallel coordinates, and in the principal component analysis (PCA), inhibiting their ability to provide machine designers with intuitive and informative visualizations of all of the design candidates and their ability to pick a few for further fine-tuning with performance verification. Therefore, this paper proposes the utilization of t-distributed stochastic neighbor embedding (t-SNE) to visualize all of the optimization objectives of various electric machines design candidates with various operating conditions, which constitute a high-dimensional set of data that would lie on several different, but related, low-dimensional manifolds. Finally, two case studies of switched reluctance machines (SRM) are presented to illustrate the superiority of then t-SNE when compared to traditional visualization techniques used in electric machine optimizations. The process of electric machine design is a complex mixture of multi-physics field interactions and multi-objective optimizations [1].

We propose a general modeling and algorithmic framework for discrete structure recovery that can be applied to a wide range of problems. Under this framework, we are able to study the recovery of clustering labels, ranks of players, and signs of regression coefficients from a unified perspective. A simple iterative algorithm is proposed for discrete structure recovery, which generalizes methods including Lloyd's algorithm and the iterative feature matching algorithm. A linear convergence result for the proposed algorithm is established in this paper under appropriate abstract conditions on stochastic errors and initialization. We illustrate our general theory by applying it on three representative problems: clustering in Gaussian mixture model, approximate ranking, and sign recovery in compressed sensing, and show that minimax rate is achieved in each case.

Temporal prediction is critical for making intelligent and robust decisions in complex dynamic environments. Motion prediction needs to model the inherently uncertain future which often contains multiple potential outcomes, due to multi-agent interactions and the latent goals of others. Towards these goals, we introduce a probabilistic framework that efficiently learns latent variables to jointly model the multi-step future motions of agents in a scene. Our framework is data-driven and learns semantically meaningful latent variables to represent the multimodal future, without requiring explicit labels. Using a dynamic attention-based state encoder, we learn to encode the past as well as the future interactions among agents, efficiently scaling to any number of agents. Finally, our model can be used for planning via computing a conditional probability density over the trajectories of other agents given a hypothetical rollout of the 'self' agent. We demonstrate our algorithms by predicting vehicle trajectories of both simulated and real data, demonstrating the state-of-the-art results on several vehicle trajectory datasets.

Biomedical data are widely accepted in developing prediction models for identifying a specific tumor, drug discovery and classification of human cancers. However, previous studies usually focused on different classifiers, and overlook the class imbalance problem in real-world biomedical datasets. There are a lack of studies on evaluation of data pre-processing techniques, such as resampling and feature selection, on imbalanced biomedical data learning. The relationship between data pre-processing techniques and the data distributions has never been analysed in previous studies. This article mainly focuses on reviewing and evaluating some popular and recently developed resampling and feature selection methods for class imbalance learning. We analyse the effectiveness of each technique from data distribution perspective. Extensive experiments have been done based on five classifiers, four performance measures, eight learning techniques across twenty real-world datasets. Experimental results show that: (1) resampling and feature selection techniques exhibit better performance using support vector machine (SVM) classifier. However, resampling and Feature Selection techniques perform poorly when using C4.5 decision tree and Linear discriminant analysis classifiers; (2) for datasets with different distributions, techniques such as Random undersampling and Feature Selection perform better than other data pre-processing methods with T Location-Scale distribution when using SVM and KNN (K-nearest neighbours) classifiers. Random oversampling outperforms other methods on Negative Binomial distribution using Random Forest classifier with lower level of imbalance ratio; (3) Feature Selection outperforms other data pre-processing methods in most cases, thus, Feature Selection with SVM classifier is the best choice for imbalanced biomedical data learning.

This paper proposes a new method for determining similarity and anomalies between time series, most practically effective in large collections of (likely related) time series, with a particular focus on measuring distances between structural breaks within such a collection. We consolidate and generalise a class of semi-metric distance measures, which we term MJ distances. Experiments on simulated data demonstrate that our proposed family of distances uncover similarity within collections of time series more effectively than measures such as the Hausdorff and Wasserstein metrics. Although our class of distances do not necessarily satisfy the triangle inequality requirement of a metric, we analyse the transitivity properties of respective distance matrices in various contextual scenarios. There, we demonstrate a trade-off between robust performance in the presence of outliers, and the triangle inequality property. We show in experiments using real data that the contrived scenarios that severely violate the transitivity property rarely exhibit themselves in real data; instead, our family of measures satisfies all the properties of a metric most of the time. We illustrate three ways of analysing the distance and similarity matrices, via eigenvalue analysis, hierarchical clustering, and spectral clustering. The results from our hierarchical and spectral clustering experiments on simulated data demonstrate that the Hausdorff and Wasserstein metrics may lead to erroneous inference as to which time series are most similar with respect to their structural breaks, while our semi-metrics provide an improvement.