The de facto standard for causal inference is the randomized controlled trial, where one compares an manipulated group with a control group in order to determine the effect of an intervention. However, this research design is not always realistically possible due to pragmatic or ethical concerns. In these situations, quasi-experimental designs may provide a solution, as these allow for causal conclusions at the cost of additional design assumptions. In this paper, we provide a generic framework for quasi-experimental design using Bayesian model comparison, and we show how it can be used as an alternative to several common research designs. We provide a theoretical motivation for a Gaussian process based approach and demonstrate its convenient use in a number of simulations. Finally, we apply the framework to determine the effect of population-based thresholds for municipality funding in France, of the 2005 smoking ban in Sicily on the number of acute coronary events, and of the effect of an alleged historical phantom border in the Netherlands on Dutch voting behaviour.

The geometric block model is a recently proposed generative model for random graphs that is able to capture the inherent geometric properties of many community detection problems, providing more accurate characterizations of practical community structures compared with the popular stochastic block model. Galhotra et al. recently proposed a motif-counting algorithm for unsupervised community detection in the geometric block model that is proved to be near-optimal. They also characterized the regimes of the model parameters for which the proposed algorithm can achieve exact recovery. In this work, we initiate the study of active learning in the geometric block model. That is, we are interested in the problem of exactly recovering the community structure of random graphs following the geometric block model under arbitrary model parameters, by possibly querying the labels of a limited number of chosen nodes. We propose two active learning algorithms that combine the idea of motif-counting with two different label query policies. Our main contribution is to show that sampling the labels of a vanishingly small fraction of nodes (sub-linear in the total number of nodes) is sufficient to achieve exact recovery in the regimes under which the state-of-the-art unsupervised method fails.

This paper investigates methods for estimating the optimal stochastic control policy for a Markov Decision Process with unknown transition dynamics and an unknown reward function. This form of model-free reinforcement learning comprises many real world systems such as playing video games, simulated control tasks, and real robot locomotion. Existing methods for estimating the optimal stochastic control policy rely on high variance estimates of the policy descent. However, these methods are not guaranteed to find the optimal stochastic policy, and the high variance gradient estimates make convergence unstable. In order to resolve these problems, we propose a technique using Markov Chain Monte Carlo to generate samples from the posterior distribution of the parameters conditioned on being optimal. Our method provably converges to the globally optimal stochastic policy, and empirically similar variance compared to the policy gradient.

A well-constructed classification model highly depends on input feature subsets from a dataset, which may contain redundant, irrelevant, or noisy features. This challenge can be worse while dealing with medical datasets. The main aim of feature selection as a pre-processing task is to eliminate these features and select the most effective ones. In the literature, metaheuristic algorithms show a successful performance to find optimal feature subsets. In this paper, two binary metaheuristic algorithms named S-shaped binary Sine Cosine Algorithm (SBSCA) and V-shaped binary Sine Cosine Algorithm (VBSCA) are proposed for feature selection from the medical data. In these algorithms, the search space remains continuous, while a binary position vector is generated by two transfer functions S-shaped and V-shaped for each solution. The proposed algorithms are compared with four latest binary optimization algorithms over five medical datasets from the UCI repository. The experimental results confirm that using both bSCA variants enhance the accuracy of classification on these medical datasets compared to four other algorithms.

Determining the primary site of origin for metastatic tumors is one of the open problems in cancer care because the efficacy of treatment often depends on the cancer tissue of origin. Classification methods that can leverage tumor genomic data and predict the site of origin are therefore of great value. Because tumor DNA point mutation data is very sparse, only limited accuracy (64.5% for 12 tumor classes) was previously demonstrated by methods that rely on point mutations as features (1). Tumor classification accuracy can be greatly improved (to over 90% for 33 classes) by relying on gene expression data (2). However, this additional data is often not readily available in clinical setting, because point mutations are better profiled and targeted by clinical mutational profiling. Here we sought to develop an accurate deep transfer learning and fine-tuning method for tumor sub-type classification, where predicted class is indicative of the primary site of origin. Our method significantly outperforms the state-of-the-art for tumor classification using DNA point mutations, reducing the error by more than 30% at the same time discriminating over many more classes on The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA) dataset. Using our method, we achieve state-of-the-art tumor type classification accuracy of 78.3% for 29 tumor classes relying on DNA point mutations in the tumor only.

Divide-and-conquer is a general strategy to deal with large scale problems. It is typically applied to generate ensemble instances, which potentially limits the problem size it can handle. Additionally, the data are often divided by random sampling which may be suboptimal. To address these concerns, we propose the $DC^2$ algorithm. Instead of ensemble instances, we produce structure-preserving signature pieces to be assembled and conquered. $DC^2$ achieves the efficiency of sampling-based large scale kernel methods while enabling parallel multicore or clustered computation. The data partition and subsequent compression are unified by recursive random projections. Empirically dividing the data by random projections induces smaller mean squared approximation errors than conventional random sampling. The power of $DC^2$ is demonstrated by our clustering algorithm $rpfCluster^+$, which is as accurate as some fastest approximate spectral clustering algorithms while maintaining a running time close to that of K-means clustering. Analysis on $DC^2$ when applied to spectral clustering shows that the loss in clustering accuracy due to data division and reduction is upper bounded by the data approximation error which would vanish with recursive random projections. Due to its easy implementation and flexibility, we expect $DC^2$ to be applicable to general large scale learning problems.

Nodes in a multiplex network are connected by multiple types of relations. However, most existing network embedding methods assume that only a single type of relation exists between nodes. Even for those that consider the multiplexity of a network, they overlook node attributes, resort to node labels for training, and fail to model the global properties of a graph. We present a simple yet effective unsupervised network embedding method for attributed multiplex network called DMGI, inspired by Deep Graph Infomax (DGI) that maximizes the mutual information between local patches of a graph, and the global representation of the entire graph. We devise a systematic way to jointly integrate the node embeddings from multiple graphs by introducing 1) the consensus regularization framework that minimizes the disagreements among the relation-type specific node embeddings, and 2) the universal discriminator that discriminates true samples regardless of the relation types. We also show that the attention mechanism infers the importance of each relation type, and thus can be useful for filtering unnecessary relation types as a preprocessing step. Extensive experiments on various downstream tasks demonstrate that DMGI outperforms the state-of-the-art methods, even though DMGI is fully unsupervised.

In many applications we want to find the number of clusters in a dataset. A common approach is to use the penalized k-means algorithm with an additive penalty term linear in the number of clusters. An open problem is estimating the value of the coefficient of the penalty term. Since estimating the value of the coefficient in a principled manner appears to be intractable for general clusters, we investigate "ideal clusters", i.e. identical spherical clusters with no overlaps and no outlier background noise. In this paper: (a) We derive, for the case of ideal clusters, rigorous bounds for the coefficient of the additive penalty. Unsurprisingly, the bounds depend on the correct number of clusters, which we want to find in the first place. We further show that additive penalty, even for this simplest case of ideal clusters, typically produces a weak and often ambiguous signature for the correct number of clusters. (b) As an alternative, we examine the k-means with multiplicative penalty, and show that this parameter-free formulation has a stronger, and less often ambiguous, signature for the correct number of clusters. We also empirically investigate certain types of deviations from ideal cluster assumption and show that combination of k-means with additive and multiplicative penalties can resolve ambiguous solutions.

Over the past years, Generative Adversarial Networks (GANs) have shown a remarkable generation performance especially in image synthesis. Unfortunately, they are also known for having an unstable training process and might loose parts of the data distribution for heterogeneous input data. In this paper, we propose a novel GAN extension for multi-modal distribution learning (MMGAN). In our approach, we model the latent space as a Gaussian mixture model with a number of clusters referring to the number of disconnected data manifolds in the observation space, and include a clustering network, which relates each data manifold to one Gaussian cluster. Thus, the training gets more stable. Moreover, MMGAN allows for clustering real data according to the learned data manifold in the latent space. By a series of benchmark experiments, we illustrate that MMGAN outperforms competitive state-of-the-art models in terms of clustering performance.

--Road networks are a type of spatial network, where edges may be associated with qualitative information such as road type and speed limit. Unfortunately, such information is often incomplete; for instance, OpenStreetMap only has speed limits for 13% of all Danish road segments. This is problematic for analysis tasks that rely on such information for machine learning. T o enable machine learning in such circumstances, one may consider the application of network embedding methods to extract structural information from the network. However, these methods have so far mostly been used in the context of social networks, which differ significantly from road networks in terms of, e.g., node degree and level of homophily (which are key to the performance of many network embedding methods). We analyze the use of network embedding methods, specifically node2vec, for learning road segment embeddings in road networks. Due to the often limited availability of information on other relevant road characteristics, the analysis focuses on leveraging the spatial network structure. Our results suggest that network embedding methods can indeed be used for deriving relevant network features (that may, e.g, be used for predicting speed limits), but that the qualities of the embeddings differ from embeddings for social networks. Personal use of this material is permitted. Road networks represent an important class of spatial networks and are an essential component of modern societal infrastructure. Road networks are associated with many important analysis tasks such as traffic flow and travel pattern analyses. In particular, many important road network tasks are supported by machine learning algorithms, including travel-time estimation [1], [2], traffic forecasting [3], and k nearest points-of-interest queries [4], [5], that require set of informative features to describe, e.g., the different road segments. Solving road network analysis tasks is difficult since there is often little information available beyond the network structure itself.