The paper proposes an estimator to make inference on key features of heterogeneous treatment effects sorted by impact groups (GATES) for non-randomised experiments. Observational studies are standard in policy evaluation from labour markets, educational surveys, and other empirical studies. To control for a potential selection-bias we implement a doubly-robust estimator in the first stage. Keeping the flexibility to use any machine learning method to learn the conditional mean functions as well as the propensity score we also use machine learning methods to learn a function for the conditional average treatment effect. The group average treatment effect is then estimated via a parametric linear model to provide p-values and confidence intervals. The result is a best linear predictor for effect heterogeneity based on impact groups. Cross-splitting and averaging for each observation is a further extension to avoid biases introduced through sample splitting. The advantage of the proposed method is a robust estimation of heterogeneous group treatment effects under mild assumptions, which is comparable with other models and thus keeps its flexibility in the choice of machine learning methods. At the same time, its ability to deliver interpretable results is ensured.

--Fair classification has become an important topic in machine learning research. While most bias mitigation strategies focus on neural networks, we noticed a lack of work on fair classifiers based on decision trees even though they have proven very efficient. In an up-to-date comparison of state-of- the-art classification algorithms in tabular data, tree boosting outperforms deep learning [1]. For this reason, we have developed a novel approach of adversarial gradient tree boosting. The objective of the algorithm is to predict the output Y with gradient tree boosting while minimizing the ability of an adversarial neural network to predict the sensitive attribute S . The approach incorporates at each iteration the gradient of the neural network directly in the gradient tree boosting. We empirically assess our approach on 4 popular data sets and compare against state-of- the-art algorithms. The results show that our algorithm achieves a higher accuracy while obtaining the same level of fairness, as measured using a set of different common fairness definitions. I NTRODUCTION Machine learning models are increasingly used in decision making processes. In many fields of application, they generally deliver superior performance compared with conventional, deterministic algorithms. However, those models are mostly black boxes which are hard, if not impossible, to interpret.

Radar signals have been dramatically increasing in complexity, limiting the source separation ability of traditional approaches. In this paper we propose a Deep Learning-based clustering method, which encodes concurrent signals into images, and, for the first time, tackles clustering with image segmentation. Novel loss functions are introduced to optimize a Neural Network to separate the input pulses into pure and non-fragmented clusters. Outperforming a variety of baselines, the proposed approach is capable of clustering inputs directly with a Neural Network, in an end-to-end fashion.

This picture compares two different types of bootstrap (parametric and non-parametric) with their traditional counterpart.

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We propose Neural Forest Learning (NFL), a novel deep learning based random-forest-like method. In contrast to previous forest methods, NFL enjoys the benefits of end-to-end, data-driven representation learning, as well as pervasive support from deep learning software and hardware platforms, hence achieving faster inference speed and higher accuracy than previous forest methods. Furthermore, NFL learns non-linear feature representations in CNNs more efficiently than previous higher-order pooling methods, producing good results with negligible increase in parameters, floating point operations (FLOPs) and real running time. We achieve superior performance on 7 machine learning datasets when compared to random forests and GBDTs. On the fine-grained benchmarks CUB-200-2011, FGVC-aircraft and Stanford Cars, we achieve over 5.7%, 6.9% and 7.8% gains for VGG-16, respectively. Moreover, NFL can converge in much fewer epochs, further accelerating network training. On the large-scale ImageNet ILSVRC-12 validation set, integration of NFL into ResNet-18 achieves top-1/top-5 errors of 28.32%/9.77%, which outperforms ResNet-18 by 1.92%/1.15% with negligible extra cost and the improvement is consistent under various architectures.

Causal structure learning has been a challenging task in the past decades and several mainstream approaches such as constraint- and score-based methods have been studied with theoretical guarantees. Recently, a new approach has transformed the combinatorial structure learning problem into a continuous one and then solved it using gradient-based optimization methods. Following the recent state-of-the-arts, we propose a new gradient-based method to learn causal structures from observational data. The proposed method generalizes the recent gradient-based methods to a graph autoencoder framework that allows nonlinear structural equation models and is easily applicable to vector-valued variables. We demonstrate that on synthetic datasets, our proposed method outperforms other gradient-based methods significantly, especially on large causal graphs. We further investigate the scalability and efficiency of our method, and observe a near linear training time when scaling up the graph size.

An automated metric to evaluate dialogue quality is vital for optimizing data driven dialogue management. The common approach of relying on explicit user feedback during a conversation is intrusive and sparse. Current models to estimate user satisfaction use limited feature sets and employ annotation schemes with limited generalizability to conversations spanning multiple domains. To address these gaps, we created a new Response Quality annotation scheme, introduced five new domain-independent feature sets and experimented with six machine learning models to estimate User Satisfaction at both turn and dialogue level. Response Quality ratings achieved significantly high correlation (0.76) with explicit turn-level user ratings. Using the new feature sets we introduced, Gradient Boosting Regression model achieved best (rating [1-5]) prediction performance on 26 seen (linear correlation ~0.79) and one new multi-turn domain (linear correlation 0.67). We observed a 16% relative improvement (68% -> 79%) in binary ("satisfactory/dissatisfactory") class prediction accuracy of a domain-independent dialogue-level satisfaction estimation model after including predicted turn-level satisfaction ratings as features.

With the advent of Deep Learning, the field of machine learning (ML) has surpassed human-level performance on diverse classification tasks. At the same time, there is a stark need to characterize and quantify reliability of a model's prediction on individual samples. This is especially true in application of such models in safety-critical domains of industrial control and healthcare. To address this need, we link the question of reliability of a model's individual prediction to the epistemic uncertainty of the model's prediction. More specifically, we extend the theory of Justified True Belief (JTB) in epistemology, created to study the validity and limits of human-acquired knowledge, towards characterizing the validity and limits of knowledge in supervised classifiers. We present an analysis of neural network classifiers linking the reliability of its prediction on an input to characteristics of the support gathered from the input and latent spaces of the network. We hypothesize that the JTB analysis exposes the epistemic uncertainty (or ignorance) of a model with respect to its inference, thereby allowing for the inference to be only as strong as the justification permits. We explore various forms of support (for e.g., k-nearest neighbors (k-NN) and l_p-norm based) generated for an input, using the training data to construct a justification for the prediction with that input. Through experiments conducted on simulated and real datasets, we demonstrate that our approach can provide reliability for individual predictions and characterize regions where such reliability cannot be ascertained.

We consider estimating the marginal likelihood in settings with independent and identically distributed (i.i.d.) data. We propose estimating the predictive distributions in a sequential factorization of the marginal likelihood in such settings by using stochastic gradient Markov Chain Monte Carlo techniques. This approach is far more efficient than traditional marginal likelihood estimation techniques such as nested sampling and annealed importance sampling due to its use of mini-batches to approximate the likelihood. Stability of the estimates is provided by an adaptive annealing schedule. The resulting stochastic gradient annealed importance sampling (SGAIS) technique, which is the key contribution of our paper, enables us to estimate the marginal likelihood of a number of models considerably faster than traditional approaches, with no noticeable loss of accuracy. An important benefit of our approach is that the marginal likelihood is calculated in an online fashion as data becomes available, allowing the estimates to be used for applications such as online weighted model combination.