PAC-Bayesian set up involves a stochastic classifier characterized by a posterior distribution on a classifier set, offers a high probability bound on its averaged true risk and is robust to the training sample used. For a given posterior, this bound captures the trade off between averaged empirical risk and KL-divergence based model complexity term. Our goal is to identify an optimal posterior with the least PAC-Bayesian bound. We consider a finite classifier set and 5 distance functions: KL-divergence, its Pinsker's and a sixth degree polynomial approximations; linear and squared distances. Linear distance based model results in a convex optimization problem. We obtain closed form expression for its optimal posterior. For uniform prior, this posterior has full support with weights negative-exponentially proportional to number of misclassifications. Squared distance and Pinsker's approximation bounds are possibly quasi-convex and are observed to have single local minimum. We derive fixed point equations (FPEs) using partial KKT system with strict positivity constraints. This obviates the combinatorial search for subset support of the optimal posterior. For uniform prior, exponential search on a full-dimensional simplex can be limited to an ordered subset of classifiers with increasing empirical risk values. These FPEs converge rapidly to a stationary point, even for a large classifier set when a solver fails. We apply these approaches to SVMs generated using a finite set of SVM regularization parameter values on 9 UCI datasets. These posteriors yield stochastic SVM classifiers with tight bounds. KL-divergence based bound is the tightest, but is computationally expensive due to non-convexity and multiple calls to a root finding algorithm. Optimal posteriors for all 5 distance functions have lowest 10% test error values on most datasets, with linear distance being the easiest to obtain.

This paper studies the fundamental problem of learning deep generative models that consist of one or more layers of latent variables organized in top-down architectures. Learning such a generative model requires inferring the latent variables for each training example based on the posterior distribution of these latent variables. The inference typically requires Markov chain Monte Caro (MCMC) that can be time consuming. In this paper, we propose to use short run inference dynamics guided by the log-posterior, such as finite-step gradient descent algorithm initialized from the prior distribution of the latent variables, as an approximate sampler of the posterior distribution, where the step size of the gradient descent dynamics is optimized by minimizing the Kullback-Leibler divergence between the distribution produced by the short run inference dynamics and the posterior distribution. Our experiments show that the proposed method outperforms variational auto-encoder (VAE) in terms of reconstruction error and synthesis quality. The advantage of the proposed method is that it is natural and automatic, even for models with multiple layers of latent variables.

With the turmoil in cybersecurity and the mind-blowing advances in AI, it is only natural that cybersecurity practitioners consider further employing learning techniques to help secure their organizations and improve the efficiency of their security operation centers. But with great fears come great opportunities for both the good and the evil, and a myriad of bad deals. This paper discusses ten issues in cybersecurity that hopefully will make it easier for practitioners to ask detailed questions about what they want from an AI system in their cybersecurity operations. We draw on the state of the art to provide factual arguments for a discussion on well-established AI in cybersecurity issues, including the current scope of AI and its application to cybersecurity, the impact of privacy concerns on the cybersecurity data that can be collected and shared externally to the organization, how an AI decision can be explained to the person running the operations center, and the implications of the adversarial nature of cybersecurity in the learning techniques. We then discuss the use of AI by attackers on a level playing field including several issues in an AI battlefield, and an AI perspective on the old cat-and-mouse game including how the adversary may assess your AI power.

This Machine Learning basics video will help you understand what is Machine Learning, what are the types of Machine Learning - supervised, unsupervised & reinforcement learning, how Machine Learning works with simple examples, and will also explain how Machine Learning is being used in various industries. Machine learning is a core sub-area of artificial intelligence; it enables computers to get into a mode of self-learning without being explicitly programmed. When exposed to new data, these computer programs are enabled to learn, grow, change, and develop by themselves. So, put simply, the iterative aspect of machine learning is the ability to adapt to new data independently. This is possible as programs learn from previous computations and use "pattern recognition" to produce reliable results.

People talk about "Artificial Intelligence" as if it's still in the future. Today, in 2019, Artificial Intelligence is already proliferating in our lives. From robotic pets that we buy as the latest toy for our kids to the robotic surgeon that's performing our family member's next scheduled surgery, to the recommendation systems that learn our preferences for music, movies, and ads, we are in fact already in the Age of Artificial Intelligence. As "Artificial Intelligence" become more intelligent and prevalent, there's a natural fear that grows within us. We can fear the dystopia brought on by not implementing AI correctly in our society.

Signal Processing, Universidad Rey Juan Carlos (URJC), Camino del Molino 5, 28943 Fuenlabrada, Spain Abstract Many fields of science and engineering rely on running simulations with complex and computationally expensive models to understand the involved processes in the system of interest. Nevertheless, the high cost involved hamper reliable and exhaustive simulations. V ery often such codes incorporate heuristics that ironically make them less tractable and transparent. This paper introduces an active learning methodology for adaptively constructing surrogate models, i.e. emulators, of such costly computer codes in a multi-output setting. The proposed technique is sequential and adaptive, and is based on the optimization of a suitable acquisition function. It aims to achieve accurate approximations, model tractability, as well as compact and expressive simulated datasets. In order to achieve this, the proposed Active Multi-Output Gaussian Process Emulator (AMOGAPE) combines the predictive capacity of Gaussian Processes (GPs) with the design of an acquisition function that favors sampling in low density and fluctuating regions of the approximation functions. Comparing different acquisition functions, we illustrate the promising performance of the method for the construction of emulators with toy examples, as well as for a widely used remote sensing transfer code. Keywords: Active learning, Gaussian process, emulation, design of experiments, computer code, remote sensing, radiative transfer model 1 Introduction In many areas of science and engineering, systems are analyzed by running computer code simulations which act as convenient approximations of reality. They allow us to simulate many different systems of interest and characterize the involved processes, such as turbulence or energy transfer, and their interactions and relevance. Depending on the body of literature, they are known as physics-based or mechanistic models, or simply simulators [30, 39]. Two important limitation are associated with simulators. The first, and perhaps the most important problem of these computer codes, is their often high computational cost, which hampers reliable and exhaustive simulations.

A simple approach to obtaining uncertainty-aware neural networks for regression is to do Bayesian linear regression (BLR) on the representation from the last hidden layer. Recent work [Riquelme et al., 2018, Azizzadenesheli et al., 2018] indicates that the method is promising, though it has been limited to homoscedastic noise. In this paper, we propose a novel variation that enables the method to flexibly model heteroscedastic noise. The method is benchmarked against two prominent alternative methods on a set of standard datasets, and finally evaluated as an uncertainty-aware model in model-based reinforcement learning. Our experiments indicate that the method is competitive with standard ensembling, and ensembles of BLR outperforms the methods we compared to.

We propose a framework to augment this collaborative model-building with per-user domain adaptation. We show that this technique improves model accuracy for all users, using both real and synthetic data, and that this improvement is much more pronounced when differential privacy bounds are imposed on the FL model. In FL, multiple parties wish to perform essentially the same task using ML, with a model structure that is agreed upon in advance. Although the initial focus of FL has been on targeting millions of mobile devices (5), the benefits of its architecture are beneficial even for enterprise settings: the number of users of an ML service may be much smaller, but privacy concerns are paramount. Each user wants the best possible classifier for their individual use, but has a limited budget for labeling their own data.

In this article we consider the Conditional Super Learner (CSL), an algorithm which selects the best model candidate from a library conditional on the covariates. The CSL expands the idea of using cross-validation to select the best model and merges it with meta learning. Here we propose a specific algorithm that finds a local minimum to the problem posed, proof that it converges at a rate faster than Op(n^-1/4) and offers extensive empirical evidence that it is an excellent candidate to substitute stacking or for the analysis of Hierarchical problems.

The complexity of human cancer often results in significant heterogeneity in response to treatment. Precision medicine offers potential to improve patient outcomes by leveraging this heterogeneity. Individualized treatment rules (ITRs) formalize precision medicine as maps from the patient covariate space into the space of allowable treatments. The optimal ITR is that which maximizes the mean of a clinical outcome in a population of interest. Patient-derived xenograft (PDX) studies permit the evaluation of multiple treatments within a single tumor and thus are ideally suited for estimating optimal ITRs. PDX data are characterized by correlated outcomes, a high-dimensional feature space, and a large number of treatments. Existing methods for estimating optimal ITRs do not take advantage of the unique structure of PDX data or handle the associated challenges well. In this paper, we explore machine learning methods for estimating optimal ITRs from PDX data. We analyze data from a large PDX study to identify biomarkers that are informative for developing personalized treatment recommendations in multiple cancers. We estimate optimal ITRs using regression-based approaches such as Q-learning and direct search methods such as outcome weighted learning. Finally, we implement a superlearner approach to combine a set of estimated ITRs and show that the resulting ITR performs better than any of the input ITRs, mitigating uncertainty regarding user choice of any particular ITR estimation methodology. Our results indicate that PDX data are a valuable resource for developing individualized treatment strategies in oncology.