We present Free-MESSAGEp, the first zeroth-order algorithm for convex mean-semideviation-based risk-aware learning, which is also the first three-level zeroth-order compositional stochastic optimization algorithm, whatsoever. Using a non-trivial extension of Nesterov's classical results on Gaussian smoothing, we develop the Free-MESSAGEp algorithm from first principles, and show that it essentially solves a smoothed surrogate to the original problem, the former being a uniform approximation of the latter, in a useful, convenient sense. We then present a complete analysis of the Free-MESSAGEp algorithm, which establishes convergence in a user-tunable neighborhood of the optimal solutions of the original problem, as well as explicit convergence rates for both convex and strongly convex costs. Orderwise, and for fixed problem parameters, our results demonstrate no sacrifice in convergence speed compared to existing first-order methods, while striking a certain balance among the condition of the problem, its dimensionality, as well as the accuracy of the obtained results, naturally extending previous results in zeroth-order risk-neutral learning.

Posterior inference in directed graphical models is commonly done using a probabilistic encoder (a.k.a inference model) conditioned on the input. Often this inference model is trained jointly with the probabilistic decoder (a.k.a generator model). If probabilistic encoder encounters complexities during training (e.g. suboptimal complxity or parameterization), then learning reaches a suboptimal objective; a phenomena commonly called inference suboptimality. In Variational Inference (VI), optimizing the ELBo using Stochastic Variational Inference (SVI) can eliminate the inference suboptimality (as demonstrated in this paper), however, this solution comes at a substantial computational cost when inference needs to be done on new data points. Essentially, a long sequential chain of gradient updates is required to fully optimize approximate posteriors. In this paper, we present an approach called Pseudo-Encoded Stochastic Variational Inference (PE-SVI), to reduce the inference complexity of SVI during test time. Our approach relies on finding a suitable initial start point for gradient operations, which naturally reduces the required gradient steps. Furthermore, this initialization allows for adopting larger step sizes (compared to random initialization used in SVI), which further reduces the inference time complexity. PE-SVI reaches the same ELBo objective as SVI using less than one percent of required steps, on average.

Prediction intervals in supervised Machine Learning bound the region where the true outputs of new samples may fall. They are necessary in the task of separating reliable predictions of a trained model from near random guesses, minimizing the rate of False Positives, and other problem-specific tasks in applied Machine Learning. Many real problems have heteroscedastic stochastic outputs, which explains the need of input-dependent prediction intervals. This paper proposes to estimate the input-dependent prediction intervals by a separate Extreme Learning Machine model, using variance of its predictions as a correction term accounting for the model uncertainty. The variance is estimated from the model's linear output layer with a weighted Jackknife method. The methodology is very fast, robust to heteroscedastic outputs, and handles both extremely large datasets and insufficient amount of training data.

Anton Akusok 1, Emil Eirola 1, Kaj-Mikael Bj ork 2 Amaury Lendasse 3, 4 1 Arcada University of Applied Sciences, Helsinki, Finland 2 Risklab at Arcada UAS, Helsinki, Finland 3 Department of Mechanical and Industrial Engineering, The University of Iowa, Iowa City, USA 4 The Iowa Informatics Initiative, The University of Iowa, Iowa City, USA Abstract The paper proposes a new variant of a decision tree, called an Extreme Learning Tree. It consists of an extremely random tree with nonlinear data transformation, and a linear observer that provides predictions based on the leaf index where the data samples fall. The proposed method outperforms linear models on a benchmark dataset, and may be a building block for a future variant of Random Forest. 1 Introduction Randomized methods are a recent trend in practical machine learning [1]. They enable the high performance of complex nonlinear methods without the high computational cost of their optimization. Current most prominent examples are randomized neural networks, in both feed-forward [2] and recurrent [3] forms. For the latter, the randomized approach provided an efficient training method for the first time, and enabled achieving state-of-the-art performance in multiple areas [4].

Analyzing electronic health records (EHR) poses significant challenges because often few samples are available describing a patient's health and, when available, their information content is highly diverse. The problem we consider is how to integrate sparsely sampled longitudinal data, missing measurements informative of the underlying health status and fixed demographic information to produce estimated survival distributions updated through a patient's follow up. We propose a nonparametric probabilistic model that generates survival trajectories from an ensemble of Bayesian trees that learns variable interactions over time without specifying beforehand the longitudinal process. We show performance improvements on Primary Biliary Cirrhosis patient data.

Machine Learning Research Group and Oxford-Man Institute for Quantitative Finance, Department of Engineering Science, University of Oxford Abstract Graph spectral techniques for measuring graph similarity, or for learning the cluster number, require kernel smoothing. The choice of kernel function and bandwidth are typically chosen in an ad-hoc manner and heavily affect the resulting output. We prove that kernel smoothing biases the moments of the spectral density. We propose an information theoretically optimal approach to learn a smooth graph spectral density, which fully respects the moment information. Our method's computational cost is linear in the number of edges, and hence can be applied to large networks, with millions of nodes. We apply our method to the problems to graph similarity and cluster number learning, where we outperform comparable iterative spectral approaches on synthetic and real graphs. Keywords: Networks, Information Theory, Maximum Entropy, Graph Spectral Theory, Random matrix theory, iterative methods, kernel smoothing 1. Introduction: networks, their graph spectra and importance Many systems of interest can be naturally characterised by complex networks; examples include social networks (Mislove et al., 2007b; Flake et al., 2000; Leskovec et al., 2007), biological networks (Palla et al., 2005) and technological networks.

Counterfactual reasoning is an important paradigm applicable in many fields, such as healthcare, economics, and education. In this work, we propose a novel method to address the issue of \textit{selection bias}. We learn two groups of latent random variables, where one group corresponds to variables that only cause selection bias, and the other group is relevant for outcome prediction. They are learned by an auto-encoder where an additional regularized loss based on Pearson Correlation Coefficient (PCC) encourages the de-correlation between the two groups of random variables. This allows for explicitly alleviating selection bias by only keeping the latent variables that are relevant for estimating individual treatment effects. Experimental results on a synthetic toy dataset and a benchmark dataset show that our algorithm is able to achieve state-of-the-art performance and improve the result of its counterpart that does not explicitly model the selection bias.

Nonlinear dimensionality reduction or, equivalently, the approximation of high-dimensional data using a low-dimensional nonlinear manifold is an active area of research. In this paper, we will present a thematically different approach to detect the existence of a low-dimensional manifold of a given dimension that lies within a set of bounds derived from a given point cloud. A matrix representing the appropriately defined distances on a low-dimensional manifold is low-rank, and our method is based on current techniques for recovering a partially observed matrix from a small set of fully observed entries that can be implemented as a low-rank Matrix Completion (MC) problem. MC methods are currently used to solve challenging real-world problems, such as image inpainting and recommender systems, and we leverage extent efficient optimization techniques that use a nuclear norm convex relaxation as a surrogate for non-convex and discontinuous rank minimization. Our proposed method provides several advantages over current nonlinear dimensionality reduction techniques, with the two most important being theoretical guarantees on the detection of low-dimensional embeddings and robustness to non-uniformity in the sampling of the manifold. We validate the performance of this approach using both a theoretical analysis as well as synthetic and real-world benchmark datasets.

The thesis contributes in several important ways to the research area of 3D object category learning and recognition. To cope with the mentioned limitations, we look at human cognition, in particular at the fact that human beings learn to recognize object categories ceaselessly over time. This ability to refine knowledge from the set of accumulated experiences facilitates the adaptation to new environments. Inspired by this capability, we seek to create a cognitive object perception and perceptual learning architecture that can learn 3D object categories in an open-ended fashion. In this context, ``open-ended'' implies that the set of categories to be learned is not known in advance, and the training instances are extracted from actual experiences of a robot, and thus become gradually available, rather than being available since the beginning of the learning process. In particular, this architecture provides perception capabilities that will allow robots to incrementally learn object categories from the set of accumulated experiences and reason about how to perform complex tasks. This framework integrates detection, tracking, teaching, learning, and recognition of objects. An extensive set of systematic experiments, in multiple experimental settings, was carried out to thoroughly evaluate the described learning approaches. Experimental results show that the proposed system is able to interact with human users, learn new object categories over time, as well as perform complex tasks. The contributions presented in this thesis have been fully implemented and evaluated on different standard object and scene datasets and empirically evaluated on different robotic platforms.

So in Part-I I gave a simple introduction on what linear regression is and how we can find the equation of the best fit line for our data. In this post, I will show you how to implement the task we worked on in Part-I in PyTorch. The input size is set to 1 since our inputs to the model are scalars h (hour in the day). The output is also set to 1 since we will get only one value returned for r (number of pages being read). So, basically, we will leave our program to find the best values for B_0 and B_1 that we calculated in the previous part of this tutorial.