Prior work inspired by compression algorithms has described how the Burrows Wheeler Transform can be used to create a distance measure for bioinformatics problems. We describe issues with this approach that were not widely known, and introduce our new Burrows Wheeler Markov Distance (BWMD) as an alternative. The BWMD avoids the shortcomings of earlier efforts, and allows us to tackle problems in variable length DNA sequence clustering. BWMD is also more adaptable to other domains, which we demonstrate on malware classification tasks. Unlike other compression-based distance metrics known to us, BWMD works by embedding sequences into a fixed-length feature vector. This allows us to provide significantly improved clustering performance on larger malware corpora, a weakness of prior methods.

Due to escalating healthcare costs, accurately predicting which patients will incur high costs is an important task for payers and providers of healthcare. High-cost claimants (HiCCs) are patients who have annual costs above $\$250,000$ and who represent just 0.16% of the insured population but currently account for 9% of all healthcare costs. In this study, we aimed to develop a high-performance algorithm to predict HiCCs to inform a novel care management system. Using health insurance claims from 48 million people and augmented with census data, we applied machine learning to train binary classification models to calculate the personal risk of HiCC. To train the models, we developed a platform starting with 6,006 variables across all clinical and demographic dimensions and constructed over one hundred candidate models. The best model achieved an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 91.2%. The model exceeds the highest published performance (84%) and remains high for patients with no prior history of high-cost status (89%), who have less than a full year of enrollment (87%), or lack pharmacy claims data (88%). It attains an area under the precision-recall curve of 23.1%, and precision of 74% at a threshold of 0.99. A care management program enrolling 500 people with the highest HiCC risk is expected to treat 199 true HiCCs and generate a net savings of $\$7.3$ million per year. Our results demonstrate that high-performing predictive models can be constructed using claims data and publicly available data alone, even for rare high-cost claimants exceeding $\$250,000$. Our model demonstrates the transformational power of machine learning and artificial intelligence in care management, which would allow healthcare payers and providers to introduce the next generation of care management programs.

Normalizing flows transform a latent distribution through an invertible neural network for a flexible and pleasingly simple approach to generative modelling, while preserving an exact likelihood. We propose FlowGMM, an end-to-end approach to generative semi supervised learning with normalizing flows, using a latent Gaussian mixture model. FlowGMM is distinct in its simplicity, unified treatment of labelled and unlabelled data with an exact likelihood, interpretability, and broad applicability beyond image data. We show promising results on a wide range of applications, including AG-News and Yahoo Answers text data, tabular data, and semi-supervised image classification. We also show that FlowGMM can discover interpretable structure, provide real-time optimization-free feature visualizations, and specify well calibrated predictive distributions.

We present an approach for end-to-end learning that allows one to jointly learn a feature representation from unlabeled data (with or without labeled data) and predict labels for unlabeled data. The feature representation is assumed to be specified in a differentiable programming framework, that is, as a parameterized mapping amenable to automatic differentiation. The proposed approach can be used with any amount of labeled and unlabeled data, gracefully adjusting to the amount of supervision. We provide experimental results illustrating the effectiveness of the approach.

We consider the efficient estimation of a low-dimensional parameter in the presence of very high-dimensional nuisances that may depend on the parameter of interest. An important example is the quantile treatment effect (QTE) in causal inference, where the efficient estimation equation involves as a nuisance the conditional cumulative distribution evaluated at the quantile to be estimated. Debiased machine learning (DML) is a data-splitting approach to address the need to estimate nuisances using flexible machine learning methods that may not satisfy strong metric entropy conditions, but applying it to problems with estimand-dependent nuisances would require estimating too many nuisances to be practical. For the QTE estimation, DML requires we learn the whole conditional cumulative distribution function, which may be challenging in practice and stands in contrast to only needing to estimate just two regression functions as in the efficient estimation of average treatment effects. Instead, we propose localized debiased machine learning (LDML), a new three-way data-splitting approach that avoids this burdensome step and needs only estimate the nuisances at a single initial bad guess for the parameters. In particular, under a Frechet-derivative orthogonality condition, we show the oracle estimation equation is asymptotically equivalent to one where the nuisance is evaluated at the true parameter value and we provide a strategy to target this alternative formulation. In the case of QTE estimation, this involves only learning two binary regression models, for which many standard, time-tested machine learning methods exist. We prove that under certain lax rate conditions, our estimator has the same favorable asymptotic behavior as the infeasible oracle estimator that solves the estimating equation with the true nuisance functions.

Machine failures decrease up-time and can lead to extra repair costs or even to human casualties and environmental pollution. Recent condition monitoring techniques use artificial intelligence in an effort to avoid time-consuming manual analysis and handcrafted feature extraction. Many of these only analyze a single machine and require a large historical data set. In practice, this can be difficult and expensive to collect. However, some industrial condition monitoring applications involve a fleet of similar operating machines. In most of these applications, it is safe to assume healthy conditions for the majority of machines. Deviating machine behavior is then an indicator for a machine fault. This work proposes an unsupervised, generic, anomaly detection framework for fleet-based condition monitoring. It uses generic building blocks and offers three key advantages. First, a historical data set is not required due to online fleet-based comparisons. Second, it allows incorporating domain expertise by user-defined comparison measures. Finally, contrary to most black-box artificial intelligence techniques, easy interpretability allows a domain expert to validate the predictions made by the framework. Two use-cases on an electrical machine fleet demonstrate the applicability of the framework to detect a voltage unbalance by means of electrical and vibration signatures.

Highly non-linear machine learning algorithms have the capacity to handle large, complex datasets. However, the predictive performance of a model usually critically depends on the choice of multiple hyperparameters. Optimizing these (often) constitutes an expensive black-box problem. Model-based optimization is one state-of-the-art method to address this problem. Furthermore, resulting models often lack interpretability, as models usually contain many active features with non-linear effects and higher-order interactions. One model-agnostic way to enhance interpretability is to enforce sparse solutions through feature selection. It is in many applications desirable to forego a small drop in performance for a substantial gain in sparseness, leading to a natural treatment of feature selection as a multi-objective optimization task. Despite the practical relevance of both hyperparameter optimization and feature selection, they are often carried out separately from each other, which is neither efficient, nor does it take possible interactions between hyperparameters and selected features into account. We present, discuss and compare two algorithmically different approaches for joint and multi-objective hyperparameter optimization and feature selection: The first uses multi-objective model-based optimization to tune a feature filter ensemble. The second is an evolutionary NSGA-II-based wrapper-approach to feature selection which incorporates specialized sampling, mutation and recombination operators for the joint decision space of included features and hyperparameter settings. We compare and discuss the approaches on a variety of benchmark tasks. While model-based optimization needs fewer objective evaluations to achieve good performance, it incurs significant overhead compared to the NSGA-II-based approach. The preferred choice depends on the cost of training the ML model on the given data.

In this paper we develop a data-driven smoothing technique for high-dimensional and non-linear panel data models. We allow for individual specific (non-linear) functions and estimation with econometric or machine learning methods by using weighted observations from other individuals. The weights are determined by a data-driven way and depend on the similarity between the corresponding functions and are measured based on initial estimates. The key feature of such a procedure is that it clusters individuals based on the distance / similarity between them, estimated in a first stage. Our estimation method can be combined with various statistical estimation procedures, in particular modern machine learning methods which are in particular fruitful in the high-dimensional case and with complex, heterogeneous data. The approach can be interpreted as a \textquotedblleft soft-clustering\textquotedblright\ in comparison to traditional\textquotedblleft\ hard clustering\textquotedblright that assigns each individual to exactly one group. We conduct a simulation study which shows that the prediction can be greatly improved by using our estimator. Finally, we analyze a big data set from didichuxing.com, a leading company in transportation industry, to analyze and predict the gap between supply and demand based on a large set of covariates. Our estimator clearly performs much better in out-of-sample prediction compared to existing linear panel data estimators.

We investigate heterogenous employment effects of Flemish training programmes. Based on administrative individual data, we analyse programme effects at various aggregation levels using Modified Causal Forests (MCF), a causal machine learning estimator for multiple programmes. While all programmes have positive effects after the lock-in period, we find substantial heterogeneity across programmes and types of unemployed. Simulations show that assigning unemployed to programmes that maximise individual gains as identified in our estimation can considerably improve effectiveness. Simplified rules, such as one giving priority to unemployed with low employability, mostly recent migrants, lead to about half of the gains obtained by more sophisticated rules.

To accelerate the training of machine learning models, distributed stochastic gradient descent (SGD) and its variants have been widely adopted, which apply multiple workers in parallel to speed up training. Among them, Local SGD has gained much attention due to its lower communication cost. Nevertheless, when the data distribution on workers is non-identical, Local SGD requires $O(T^{\frac{3}{4}} N^{\frac{3}{4}})$ communications to maintain its \emph{linear iteration speedup} property, where $T$ is the total number of iterations and $N$ is the number of workers. In this paper, we propose Variance Reduced Local SGD (VRL-SGD) to further reduce the communication complexity. Benefiting from eliminating the dependency on the gradient variance among workers, we theoretically prove that VRL-SGD achieves a \emph{linear iteration speedup} with a lower communication complexity $O(T^{\frac{1}{2}} N^{\frac{3}{2}})$ even if workers access non-identical datasets. We conduct experiments on three machine learning tasks, and the experimental results demonstrate that VRL-SGD performs impressively better than Local SGD when the data among workers are quite diverse.