Accurate and reliable forecasting of total cloud cover (TCC) is vital for many areas such as astronomy, energy demand and production, or agriculture. Most meteorological centres issue ensemble forecasts of TCC, however, these forecasts are often uncalibrated and exhibit worse forecast skill than ensemble forecasts of other weather variables. Hence, some form of post-processing is strongly required to improve predictive performance. As TCC observations are usually reported on a discrete scale taking just nine different values called oktas, statistical calibration of TCC ensemble forecasts can be considered a classification problem with outputs given by the probabilities of the oktas. This is a classical area where machine learning methods are applied. We investigate the performance of post-processing using multilayer percep-tron (MLP) neural networks, gradient boosting machines (GBM) and random forest (RF) methods. Based on the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts global TCC ensemble forecasts for 2002-2014 we compare these approaches with the proportional odds logistic regression (POLR) and multiclass logistic regression (MLR) models, as well as the raw TCC ensemble forecasts. We further assess whether improvements in forecast skill can be obtained by incorporating ensemble forecasts of precipitation as additional predictor. Compared to the raw ensemble, all calibration methods result in a significant improvement in forecast skill. RF models provide the smallest increase in predictive performance, while MLP, POLR and GBM approaches perform best. Key words: ensemble calibration; gradient boosting machine; logistic regression; mul-tilayer perceptron; random forest; total cloud cover 1 Introduction Reliable and accurate prediction of total cloud cover (TCC) has a principal importance in observational astronomy (Ye and Chen, 2013) and in the prediction of photovoltaic energy production, as it is the main cause of variation in solar-radiation energy supply (Matuszko, 2012; McEvoy et al., 2012), but it is also of great relevance in agriculture, tourism and in some other fields of economy.

Machine learning has made tremendous progress in recent years, with models matching or even surpassing humans on a series of specialized tasks. One key element behind the progress of machine learning in recent years has been the ability to train machine learning models in large-scale distributed shared-memory and message-passing environments. Many of these models are trained employing variants of stochastic gradient descent (SGD) based optimization. In this paper, we introduce a general consistency condition covering communication-reduced and asynchronous distributed SGD implementations. Our framework, called elastic consistency enables us to derive convergence bounds for a variety of distributed SGD methods used in practice to train large-scale machine learning models. The proposed framework de-clutters the implementation-specific convergence analysis and provides an abstraction to derive convergence bounds. We utilize the framework to analyze a sparsification scheme for distributed SGD methods in an asynchronous setting for convex and non-convex objectives. We implement the distributed SGD variant to train deep CNN models in an asynchronous shared-memory setting. Empirical results show that error-feedback may not necessarily help in improving the convergence of sparsified asynchronous distributed SGD, which corroborates an insight suggested by our convergence analysis.

Big Data scenarios pose a new challenge to traditional data mining algorithms, since they are not prepared to work with such amount of data. Smart Data refers to data of enough quality to improve the outcome from a data mining algorithm. Existing data mining algorithms unability to handle Big Datasets prevents the transition from Big to Smart Data. Automation in data acquisition that characterizes Big Data also brings some problems, such as differences in data size per class. This will lead classifiers to lean towards the most represented classes. This problem is known as imbalanced data distribution, where one class is underrepresented in the dataset. Ensembles of classifiers are machine learning methods that improve the performance of a single base classifier by the combination of several of them. Ensembles are not exempt from the imbalanced classification problem. To deal with this issue, the ensemble method have to be designed specifically. In this paper, a data preprocessing ensemble for imbalanced Big Data classification is presented, with focus on two-class problems. Experiments carried out in 21 Big Datasets have proved that our ensemble classifier outperforms classic machine learning models with an added data balancing method, such as Random Forests.

In many scenarios, humans prefer a text-based representation of quantitative data over numerical, tabular, or graphical representations. The attractiveness of textual summaries for complex data has inspired research on data-to-text systems. While there are several data-to-text tools for time series, few of them try to mimic how humans summarize for time series. In this paper, we propose a model to create human-like text descriptions for time series. Our system finds patterns in time series data and ranks these patterns based on empirical observations of human behavior using utility estimation. Our proposed utility estimation model is a Bayesian network capturing interdependencies between different patterns. We describe the learning steps for this network and introduce baselines along with their performance for each step. The output of our system is a natural language description of time series that attempts to match a human's summary of the same data.

We introduce a framework for Newton's flows in probability space with information metrics, named information Newton's flows. Here two information metrics are considered, including both the Fisher-Rao metric and the Wasserstein-2 metric. Several examples of information Newton's flows for learning objective/loss functions are provided, such as Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergence, Maximum mean discrepancy (MMD), and cross entropy. The asymptotic convergence results of proposed Newton's methods are provided. A known fact is that overdamped Langevin dynamics correspond to Wasserstein gradient flows of KL divergence. Extending this fact to Wasserstein Newton's flows of KL divergence, we derive Newton's Langevin dynamics. We provide examples of Newton's Langevin dynamics in both one-dimensional space and Gaussian families. For the numerical implementation, we design sampling efficient variational methods to approximate Wasserstein Newton's directions. Several numerical examples in Gaussian families and Bayesian logistic regression are shown to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method.

Recently, the emergence of the #MeToo trend on social media has empowered thousands of people to share their own sexual harassment experiences. This viral trend, in conjunction with the massive personal information and content available on Twitter, presents a promising opportunity to extract data driven insights to complement the ongoing survey based studies about sexual harassment in college. In this paper, we analyze the influence of the #MeToo trend on a pool of college followers. The results show that the majority of topics embedded in those #MeToo tweets detail sexual harassment stories, and there exists a significant correlation between the prevalence of this trend and official reports on several major geographical regions. Furthermore, we discover the outstanding sentiments of the #MeToo tweets using deep semantic meaning representations and their implications on the affected users experiencing different types of sexual harassment. We hope this study can raise further awareness regarding sexual misconduct in academia.

Whether enjoying the lucid prose of a favorite author or slogging through some other writer's cumbersome, heavy-set prattle (full of parentheses, em dashes, compound adjectives, and Oxford commas), readers will notice stylistic signatures not only in word choice and grammar, but also in punctuation itself. Indeed, visual sequences of punctuation from different authors produce marvelously different (and visually striking) sequences. Punctuation is a largely overlooked stylistic feature in "stylometry", the quantitative analysis of written text. In this paper, we examine punctuation sequences in a corpus of literary documents and ask the following questions: Are the properties of such sequences a distinctive feature of different authors? Is it possible to distinguish literary genres based on their punctuation sequences? Do the punctuation styles of authors evolve over time? Are we on to something interesting in trying to do stylometry without words, or are we full of sound and fury (signifying nothing)?

A sigmoid function is a mathematical function having a characteristic "S"-shaped curve or sigmoid curve. Special cases of the sigmoid function include the Gompertz curve (used in modeling systems that saturate at large values of x) and the ogee curve (used in the spillway of some dams). Sigmoid functions have domain of all real numbers, with return value monotonically increasing most often from 0 to 1 or alternatively from 1 to 1, depending on convention. A wide variety of sigmoid functions including the logistic and hyperbolic tangent functions have been used as the activation function of artificial neurons. Sigmoid curves are also common in statistics as cumulative distribution functions (which go from 0 to 1), such as the integrals of the logistic distribution, the normal distribution, and Student's t probability density functions.

Students who have at least high school knowledge in math and who want to start learning Machine Learning. Any intermediate level people who know the basics of machine learning, including the classical algorithms like linear regression or logistic regression, but who want to learn more about it and explore all the different fields of Machine Learning. Any people who are not that comfortable with coding but who are interested in Machine Learning and want to apply it easily on datasets. Anyone willing to learn machine learning on Google cloud platform. Any students in college who want to start a career in Data Science. Any data analysts who want to level up in Machine Learning.

"Time series models are used to forecast future events based on previous events that have been observed (and data collected) at regular time intervals." We will be taking a small forecasting problem and try to solve it till the end learning time series forecasting alongside. Time series forecasting is a technique for the prediction of events through a sequence of time. The technique is used across many fields of study, from geology to behavior to economics. The techniques predict future events by analyzing the trends of the past, on the assumption that future trends will hold similar to historical trends. Time series forecasting is sometimes just the analysis of experts studying a field and offering their predictions.