Companies may be achieving only a third of the value they could be getting from data science in industry applications. In this paper, we propose a methodology for categorizing and answering 'The Big Three' questions (what is going on, what is causing it, and what actions can I take that will optimize what I care about) using data science. The applications of data science seem to be nearly endless in today's modern landscape, with each company jockeying for position in the new data and insights economy. Yet, data scientists seem to be solely focused on using classification, regression, and clustering methods to answer the question 'what is going on'. Answering questions about why things are happening or how to take optimal actions to improve metrics are relegated to niche fields of research and generally neglected in industry data science analysis. We survey technical methods to answer these other important questions, describe areas in which some of these methods are being applied, and provide a practical example of how to apply our methodology and selected methods to a real business use case.

Epoch gradient descent method (a.k.a. Epoch-GD) proposed by (Hazan and Kale, 2011) was deemed a breakthrough for stochastic strongly convex minimization, which achieves the optimal convergence rate of O(1/T) with T iterative updates for the objective gap. However, its extension to solving stochastic min-max problems with strong convexity and strong concavity still remains open, and it is still unclear whether a fast rate of O(1/T) for the duality gap is achievable for stochastic min-max optimization under strong convexity and strong concavity. Although some recent studies have proposed stochastic algorithms with fast convergence rates for min-max problems, they require additional assumptions about the problem, e.g., smoothness, bi-linear structure, etc. In this paper, we bridge this gap by providing a sharp analysis of epoch-wise stochastic gradient descent ascent method (referred to as Epoch-GDA) for solving strongly convex strongly concave (SCSC) min-max problems, without imposing any additional assumptions about smoothness or its structure. To the best of our knowledge, our result is the first one that shows Epoch-GDA can achieve the fast rate of O(1/T) for the duality gap of general SCSC min-max problems. We emphasize that such generalization of Epoch-GD for strongly convex minimization problems to Epoch-GDA for SCSC min-max problems is non-trivial and requires novel technical analysis. Moreover, we notice that the key lemma can be also used for proving the convergence of Epoch-GDA for weakly-convex strongly-concave min-max problems, leading to the best complexity as well without smoothness or other structural conditions.

We consider a data corruption scenario in the classical $k$ Nearest Neighbors ($k$-NN) algorithm, that is, the testing data are randomly perturbed. Under such a scenario, the impact of corruption level on the asymptotic regret is carefully characterized. In particular, our theoretical analysis reveals a phase transition phenomenon that, when the corruption level $\omega$ is below a critical order (i.e., small-$\omega$ regime), the asymptotic regret remains the same; when it is beyond that order (i.e., large-$\omega$ regime), the asymptotic regret deteriorates polynomially. Surprisingly, we obtain a negative result that the classical noise-injection approach will not help improve the testing performance in the beginning stage of the large-$\omega$ regime, even in the level of the multiplicative constant of asymptotic regret. As a technical by-product, we prove that under different model assumptions, the pre-processed 1-NN proposed in \cite{xue2017achieving} will at most achieve a sub-optimal rate when the data dimension $d>4$ even if $k$ is chosen optimally in the pre-processing step.

Classic contextual bandit algorithms for linear models, such as LinUCB, assume that the reward distribution for an arm is modeled by a stationary linear regression. When the linear regression model is non-stationary over time, the regret of LinUCB can scale linearly with time. In this paper, we propose a novel multiscale changepoint detection method for the non-stationary linear bandit problems, called Multiscale-LinUCB, which actively adapts to the changing environment. We also provide theoretical analysis of regret bound for Multiscale-LinUCB algorithm. Experimental results show that our proposed Multiscale-LinUCB algorithm outperforms other state-of-the-art algorithms in non-stationary contextual environments.

Stochastic Gradient Descent (SGD) is a popular tool in large scale optimization of machine learning objective functions. However, the performance is greatly variable, depending on the choice of the step sizes. In this paper, we introduce the exponential step sizes for stochastic optimization of smooth non-convex functions which satisfy the Polyak-\L{}ojasiewicz (PL) condition. We show that, without any information on the level of noise over the stochastic gradients, these step sizes guarantee a convergence rate for the last iterate that automatically interpolates between a linear rate (in the noisy-free case) and a $O(\frac{1}{T})$ rate (in the noisy case), up to poly-logarithmic factors. Moreover, if without the PL condition, the exponential step sizes still guarantee optimal convergence to a critical point, up to logarithmic factors. We also validate our theoretical results with empirical experiments on real-world datasets with deep learning architectures.

In this work, we propose learnable Bernoulli dropout (LBD), a new model-agnostic dropout scheme that considers the dropout rates as parameters jointly optimized with other model parameters. By probabilistic modeling of Bernoulli dropout, our method enables more robust prediction and uncertainty quantification in deep models. Especially, when combined with variational auto-encoders (VAEs), LBD enables flexible semi-implicit posterior representations, leading to new semi-implicit VAE~(SIVAE) models. We solve the optimization for training with respect to the dropout parameters using Augment-REINFORCE-Merge (ARM), an unbiased and low-variance gradient estimator. Our experiments on a range of tasks show the superior performance of our approach compared with other commonly used dropout schemes. Overall, LBD leads to improved accuracy and uncertainty estimates in image classification and semantic segmentation. Moreover, using SIVAE, we can achieve state-of-the-art performance on collaborative filtering for implicit feedback on several public datasets.

In this paper, we consider the problem of predicting observations generated online by an unknown, partially observed linear system, which is driven by stochastic noise. For such systems the optimal predictor in the mean square sense is the celebrated Kalman filter, which can be explicitly computed when the system model is known. When the system model is unknown, we have to learn how to predict observations online based on finite data, suffering possibly a non-zero regret with respect to the Kalman filter's prediction. We show that it is possible to achieve a regret of the order of $\mathrm{poly}\log(N)$ with high probability, where $N$ is the number of observations collected. Our work is the first to provide logarithmic regret guarantees for the widely used Kalman filter. This is achieved using an online least-squares algorithm, which exploits the approximately linear relation between future observations and past observations. The regret analysis is based on the stability properties of the Kalman filter, recent statistical tools for finite sample analysis of system identification, and classical results for the analysis of least-squares algorithms for time series. Our regret analysis can also be applied for state prediction of the hidden state, in the case of unknown noise statistics but known state-space basis. A fundamental technical contribution is that our bounds hold even for the class of non-explosive systems, which includes the class of marginally stable systems, which was an open problem for the case of online prediction under stochastic noise.

We consider Model-Agnostic Meta-Learning (MAML) methods for Reinforcement Learning (RL) problems where the goal is to find a policy (using data from several tasks represented by Markov Decision Processes (MDPs)) that can be updated by one step of stochastic policy gradient for the realized MDP. In particular, using stochastic gradients in MAML update step is crucial for RL problems since computation of exact gradients requires access to a large number of possible trajectories. For this formulation, we propose a variant of the MAML method, named Stochastic Gradient Meta-Reinforcement Learning (SG-MRL), and study its convergence properties. We derive the iteration and sample complexity of SG-MRL to find an $\epsilon$-first-order stationary point, which, to the best of our knowledge, provides the first convergence guarantee for model-agnostic meta-reinforcement learning algorithms. We further show how our results extend to the case where more than one step of stochastic policy gradient method is used in the update during the test time.

Deploying the multi-relational tensor structure of a high dimensional feature space, more efficiently improves the performance of machine learning algorithms. One encounters the \emph{curse of dimensionality}, and working with vectorized data fails to preserve the data structure. To mitigate the nonlinear relationship of tensor data more economically, we propose the \emph{Tensor Train Multi-way Multi-level Kernel (TT-MMK)}. This technique combines kernel filtering of the initial input data (\emph{Kernelized Tensor Train (KTT)}), stable reparametrization of the KTT in the Canonical Polyadic (CP) format, and the Dual Structure-preserving Support Vector Machine (\emph{SVM}) Kernel for revealing nonlinear relationships. We demonstrate numerically that the TT-MMK method is more reliable computationally, is less sensitive to tuning parameters, and gives higher prediction accuracy in the SVM classification compared to similar tensorised SVM methods.

Data analysis based on linear methods, which look for correlations between the features describing samples in a data set, or between features and properties associated with the samples, constitute the simplest, most robust, and transparent approaches to the automatic processing of large amounts of data for building supervised or unsupervised machine learning models. Principal covariates regression (PCovR) is an under-appreciated method that interpolates between principal component analysis and linear regression, and can be used to conveniently reveal structure-property relations in terms of simple-to-interpret, low-dimensional maps. Here we provide a pedagogic overview of these data analysis schemes, including the use of the kernel trick to introduce an element of non-linearity in the process, while maintaining most of the convenience and the simplicity of linear approaches. We then introduce a kernelized version of PCovR and a sparsified extension, followed by a feature-selection scheme based on the CUR matrix decomposition modified to incorporate the same hybrid loss that underlies PCovR. We demonstrate the performance of these approaches in revealing and predicting structure-property relations in chemistry and materials science.