This paper examines the possibility of a reject option' in the context of least squares regression. It is shown that using rejection it is theoretically possible to learn selective' regressors that can $\epsilon$-pointwise track the best regressor in hindsight from the same hypothesis class, while rejecting only a bounded portion of the domain. Moreover, the rejected volume vanishes with the training set size, under certain conditions. We then develop efficient and exact implementation of these selective regressors for the case of linear regression. Empirical evaluation over a suite of real-world datasets corroborates the theoretical analysis and indicates that our selective regressors can provide substantial advantage by reducing estimation error. Papers published at the Neural Information Processing Systems Conference.

Many real-world networks are described by both connectivity information and features for every node. To better model and understand these networks, we present structure preserving metric learning (SPML), an algorithm for learning a Mahalanobis distance metric from a network such that the learned distances are tied to the inherent connectivity structure of the network. Like the graph embedding algorithm structure preserving embedding, SPML learns a metric which is structure preserving, meaning a connectivity algorithm such as k-nearest neighbors will yield the correct connectivity when applied using the distances from the learned metric. We show a variety of synthetic and real-world experiments where SPML predicts link patterns from node features more accurately than standard techniques. We further demonstrate a method for optimizing SPML based on stochastic gradient descent which removes the running-time dependency on the size of the network and allows the method to easily scale to networks of thousands of nodes and millions of edges.

Stochastic differential equations (SDE) are a natural tool for modelling systems that are inherently noisy or contain uncertainties that can be modelled as stochastic processes. Crucial to the process of using SDE to build mathematical models is the ability to estimate parameters of those models from observed data. Over the past few decades, significant progress has been made on this problem, but we are still far from having a definitive solution. We describe a novel method of approximating a diffusion process that we show to be useful in Markov chain Monte-Carlo (MCMC) inference algorithms. We take the'white' noise that drives a diffusion process and decompose it into two terms.

We show that conventional k-nearest neighbor classification can be viewed as a special problem of the diffusion decision model in the asymptotic situation. Applying the optimal strategy associated with the diffusion decision model, an adaptive rule is developed for determining appropriate values of k in k-nearest neighbor classification. Making use of the sequential probability ratio test (SPRT) and Bayesian analysis, we propose five different criteria for adaptively acquiring nearest neighbors. Experiments with both synthetic and real datasets demonstrate the effectivness of our classification criteria. Papers published at the Neural Information Processing Systems Conference.

An accurate model of patient survival time can help in the treatment and care of cancer patients. The common practice of providing survival time estimates based only on population averages for the site and stage of cancer ignores many important individual differences among patients. In this paper, we propose a local regression method for learning patient-specific survival time distribution based on patient attributes such as blood tests and clinical assessments. When tested on a cohort of more than 2000 cancer patients, our method gives survival time predictions that are much more accurate than popular survival analysis models such as the Cox and Aalen regression models. Our results also show that using patient-specific attributes can reduce the prediction error on survival time by as much as 20% when compared to using cancer site and stage only.

Knowledge-based support vector machines (KBSVMs) incorporate advice from domain experts, which can improve generalization significantly. A major limitation that has not been fully addressed occurs when the expert advice is imperfect, which can lead to poorer models. We propose a model that extends KBSVMs and is able to not only learn from data and advice, but also simultaneously improve the advice. The proposed approach is particularly effective for knowledge discovery in domains with few labeled examples. The proposed model contains bilinear constraints, and is solved using two iterative approaches: successive linear programming and a constrained concave-convex approach.

Variational Message Passing (VMP) is an algorithmic implementation of the Variational Bayes (VB) method which applies only in the special case of conjugate exponential family models. We propose an extension to VMP, which we refer to as Non-conjugate Variational Message Passing (NCVMP) which aims to alleviate this restriction while maintaining modularity, allowing choice in how expectations are calculated, and integrating into an existing message-passing framework: Infer.NET. We demonstrate NCVMP on logistic binary and multinomial regression. In the multinomial case we introduce a novel variational bound for the softmax factor which is tighter than other commonly used bounds whilst maintaining computational tractability. Papers published at the Neural Information Processing Systems Conference.

Statistical learning and sequential prediction are two different but related formalisms to study the quality of predictions. Mapping out their relations and transferring ideas is an active area of investigation. We provide another piece of the puzzle by showing that an important concept in sequential prediction, the mixability of a loss, has a natural counterpart in the statistical setting, which we call stochastic mixability. Just as ordinary mixability characterizes fast rates for the worst-case regret in sequential prediction, stochastic mixability characterizes fast rates in statistical learning. We show that, in the special case of log-loss, stochastic mixability reduces to a well-known (but usually unnamed) martingale condition, which is used in existing convergence theorems for minimum description length and Bayesian inference.

Unlike existing nonparametric Bayesian models, which rely solely on specially conceived priors to incorporate domain knowledge for discovering improved latent representations, we study nonparametric Bayesian inference with regularization on the desired posterior distributions. While priors can indirectly affect posterior distributions through Bayes' theorem, imposing posterior regularization is arguably more direct and in some cases can be much easier. We particularly focus on developing infinite latent support vector machines (iLSVM) and multi-task infinite latent support vector machines (MT-iLSVM), which explore the large-margin idea in combination with a nonparametric Bayesian model for discovering predictive latent features for classification and multi-task learning, respectively. We present efficient inference methods and report empirical studies on several benchmark datasets. Our results appear to demonstrate the merits inherited from both large-margin learning and Bayesian nonparametrics.

We prove a new oracle inequality for support vector machines with Gaussian RBF kernels solving the regularized least squares regression problem. To this end, we apply the modulus of smoothness. With the help of the new oracle inequality we then derive learning rates that can also be achieved by a simple data-dependent parameter selection method. Finally, it turns out that our learning rates are asymptotically optimal for regression functions satisfying certain standard smoothness conditions. Papers published at the Neural Information Processing Systems Conference.