Statistical Learning
Model selection and velocity estimation using novel priors for motion patterns
Wu, Shuang, Lu, Hongjing, Yuille, Alan L.
Psychophysical experiments show that humans are better at perceiving rotation and expansion than translation. These findings are inconsistent with standard models of motion integration which predict best performance for translation [6]. To explain this discrepancy, our theory formulates motion perception at two levels of inference: we first perform model selection between the competing models (e.g. We define novel prior models for smooth rotation and expansion using techniques similar to those in the slow-and-smooth model [17] (e.g. Green functions of differential operators). The theory gives good agreement with the trends observed in human experiments.
Smarter Pricing for Airbnb Using Machine Learning
You can find the files for this project at my GitHub and the slides here. The final project is accessible here (interactive web app).] I recently designed a new approach to automatic pricing for Airbnb listings using the Inside Airbnb dataset. I used linear regression to establish a base price and time series analysis to forecast price fluctuations due to the date. I used unsupervised learning to build a recommender system so hosts could compare their listing to other similar popular listings.
Robust PCA via Outlier Pursuit
Xu, Huan, Caramanis, Constantine, Sanghavi, Sujay
Singular Value Decomposition (and Principal Component Analysis) is one of the most widely used techniques for dimensionality reduction: successful and efficiently computable, it is nevertheless plagued by a well-known, well-documented sensitivity to outliers. Recent work has considered the setting where each point has a few arbitrarily corrupted components. Yet, in applications of SVD or PCA such as robust collaborative filtering or bioinformatics, malicious agents, defective genes, or simply corrupted or contaminated experiments may effectively yield entire points that are completely corrupted. We present an efficient convex optimization-based algorithm we call Outlier Pursuit, that under some mild assumptions on the uncorrupted points (satisfied, e.g., by the standard generative assumption in PCA problems) recovers the *exact* optimal low-dimensional subspace, and identifies the corrupted points. Such identification of corrupted points that do not conform to the low-dimensional approximation, is of paramount interest in bioinformatics and financial applications, and beyond. Our techniques involve matrix decomposition using nuclear norm minimization, however, our results, setup, and approach, necessarily differ considerably from the existing line of work in matrix completion and matrix decomposition, since we develop an approach to recover the correct *column space* of the uncorrupted matrix, rather than the exact matrix itself.
Diffeomorphic Dimensionality Reduction
Walder, Christian, Schölkopf, Bernhard
This paper introduces a new approach to constructing meaningful lower dimensional representations of sets of data points. We argue that constraining the mapping between the high and low dimensional spaces to be a diffeomorphism is a natural way of ensuring that pairwise distances are approximately preserved. Accordingly we develop an algorithm which diffeomorphically maps the data near to a lower dimensional subspace and then projects onto that subspace. The problem of solving for the mapping is transformed into one of solving for an Eulerian flow field which we compute using ideas from kernel methods. We demonstrate the efficacy of our approach on various real world data sets.
Bayesian Kernel Shaping for Learning Control
Ting, Jo-anne, Kalakrishnan, Mrinal, Vijayakumar, Sethu, Schaal, Stefan
In kernel-based regression learning, optimizing each kernel individually is useful when the data density, curvature of regression surfaces (or decision boundaries) or magnitude of output noise (i.e., heteroscedasticity) varies spatially. Unfortunately, it presents a complex computational problem as the danger of overfitting is high and the individual optimization of every kernel in a learning system may be overly expensive due to the introduction of too many open learning parameters. Previous work has suggested gradient descent techniques or complex statistical hypothesis methods for local kernel shaping, typically requiring some amount of manual tuning of meta parameters. In this paper, we focus on nonparametric regression and introduce a Bayesian formulation that, with the help of variational approximations, results in an EM-like algorithm for simultaneous estimation of regression and kernel parameters. The algorithm is computationally efficient (suitable for large data sets), requires no sampling, automatically rejects outliers and has only one prior to be specified.
Gaussian process regression with Student-t likelihood
Vanhatalo, Jarno, Jylänki, Pasi, Vehtari, Aki
In the Gaussian process regression the observation model is commonly assumed to be Gaussian, which is convenient in computational perspective. However, the drawback is that the predictive accuracy of the model can be significantly compromised if the observations are contaminated by outliers. A robust observation model, such as the Student-t distribution, reduces the influence of outlying observations and improves the predictions. The problem, however, is the analytically intractable inference. In this work, we discuss the properties of a Gaussian process regression model with the Student-t likelihood and utilize the Laplace approximation for approximate inference.
A Convergent O(n) Temporal-difference Algorithm for Off-policy Learning with Linear Function Approximation
Sutton, Richard S., Maei, Hamid R., Szepesvári, Csaba
We introduce the first temporal-difference learning algorithm that is stable with linear function approximation and off-policy training, for any finite Markov decision process, target policy, and exciting behavior policy, and whose complexity scales linearly in the number of parameters. We consider an i.i.d.\ policy-evaluation setting in which the data need not come from on-policy experience. The gradient temporal-difference (GTD) algorithm estimates the expected update vector of the TD(0) algorithm and performs stochastic gradient descent on its L_2 norm. Our analysis proves that its expected update is in the direction of the gradient, assuring convergence under the usual stochastic approximation conditions to the same least-squares solution as found by the LSTD, but without its quadratic computational complexity. GTD is online and incremental, and does not involve multiplying by products of likelihood ratios as in importance-sampling methods.
Modelling Relational Data using Bayesian Clustered Tensor Factorization
Sutskever, Ilya, Tenenbaum, Joshua B., Salakhutdinov, Russ R.
We consider the problem of learning probabilistic models for complex relational structures between various types of objects. A model can help us understand a dataset of relational facts in at least two ways, by finding interpretable structure in the data, and by supporting predictions, or inferences about whether particular unobserved relations are likely to be true. Often there is a tradeoff between these two aims: cluster-based models yield more easily interpretable representations, while factorization-based approaches have better predictive performance on large data sets. We introduce the Bayesian Clustered Tensor Factorization (BCTF) model, which embeds a factorized representation of relations in a nonparametric Bayesian clustering framework. Inference is fully Bayesian but scales well to large data sets.
Entropic Graph Regularization in Non-Parametric Semi-Supervised Classification
Subramanya, Amarnag, Bilmes, Jeff A.
We prove certain theoretical properties of a graph-regularized transductive learning objective that is based on minimizing a Kullback-Leibler divergence based loss. These include showing that the iterative alternating minimization procedure used to minimize the objective converges to the correct solution and deriving a test for convergence. We also propose a graph node ordering algorithm that is cache cognizant and leads to a linear speedup in parallel computations. This ensures that the algorithm scales to large data sets. By making use of empirical evaluation on the TIMIT and Switchboard I corpora, we show this approach is able to out-perform other state-of-the-art SSL approaches.
Identifying Patients at Risk of Major Adverse Cardiovascular Events Using Symbolic Mismatch
Syed, Zeeshan, Guttag, John V.
Cardiovascular disease is the leading cause of death globally, resulting in 17 million deaths each year. Despite the availability of various treatment options, existing techniques based upon conventional medical knowledge often fail to identify patients who might have benefited from more aggressive therapy. In this paper, we describe and evaluate a novel unsupervised machine learning approach for cardiac risk stratification. The key idea of our approach is to avoid specialized medical knowledge, and assess patient risk using symbolic mismatch, a new metric to assess similarity in long-term time-series activity. We hypothesize that high risk patients can be identified using symbolic mismatch, as individuals in a population with unusual long-term physiological activity.