Statistical Learning
What Emotions Make One or Five Stars? Understanding Ratings of Online Product Reviews by Sentiment Analysis and XAI
When people buy products online, they primarily base their decisions on the recommendations of others given in online reviews. The current work analyzed these online reviews by sentiment analysis and used the extracted sentiments as features to predict the product ratings by several machine learning algorithms. These predictions were disentangled by various meth-ods of explainable AI (XAI) to understand whether the model showed any bias during prediction. Study 1 benchmarked these algorithms (knn, support vector machines, random forests, gradient boosting machines, XGBoost) and identified random forests and XGBoost as best algorithms for predicting the product ratings. In Study 2, the analysis of global feature importance identified the sentiment joy and the emotional valence negative as most predictive features. Two XAI visualization methods, local feature attributions and partial dependency plots, revealed several incorrect prediction mechanisms on the instance-level. Performing the benchmarking as classification, Study 3 identified a high no-information rate of 64.4% that indicated high class imbalance as underlying reason for the identified problems. In conclusion, good performance by machine learning algorithms must be taken with caution because the dataset, as encountered in this work, could be biased towards certain predictions. This work demonstrates how XAI methods reveal such prediction bias.
Data Science Curriculum for self-study - KDnuggets
As a data science educator, many people interested in getting into data science have contacted me for guidance on how to get into the field of data science. This article will discuss the recommended topics that one has to study to build essential skills in data science. The topics presented here, if studied thoroughly, will provide the minimum background needed to start doing data science. This curriculum could also be used for designing an introductory college-level course in data science. Keep in mind that knowledge acquired from courses alone will not make you a data scientist.
CODEBUG
Support vector machine (SVM) is a supervised machine learning algorithm which is considered effective tool for both classification and regression problem. In a simple word, SVM tries to find a linearly separable hyperplane in order to separate members of one class from another. If SVM can not find the hyperplane for a given data set, it applies non-linear mapping to the training data and transform them to higher dimension where it searches for the optimal hyperplane. The SVM algorithm uses support vectors and margins in order to draw these hyperplanes in the training data. Since it has ability to understand the complex relation in input data by applying nonlinear mapping, it has high accuracy compare to other supervised classification algorithms (kNN, NCC..) People have been using SVM for different applications like: text data classification, image data(handwritten) recognition and more.
Determination of Latent Dimensionality in International Trade Flow
Truong, Duc P., Skau, Erik, Valtchinov, Vladimir I., Alexandrov, Boian S.
Currently, high-dimensional data is ubiquitous in data science, which necessitates the development of techniques to decompose and interpret such multidimensional (aka tensor) datasets. Finding a low dimensional representation of the data, that is, its inherent structure, is one of the approaches that can serve to understand the dynamics of low dimensional latent features hidden in the data. Nonnegative RESCAL is one such technique, particularly well suited to analyze self-relational data, such as dynamic networks found in international trade flows. Nonnegative RESCAL computes a low dimensional tensor representation by finding the latent space containing multiple modalities. Estimating the dimensionality of this latent space is crucial for extracting meaningful latent features. Here, to determine the dimensionality of the latent space with nonnegative RESCAL, we propose a latent dimension determination method which is based on clustering of the solutions of multiple realizations of nonnegative RESCAL decompositions. We demonstrate the performance of our model selection method on synthetic data and then we apply our method to decompose a network of international trade flows data from International Monetary Fund and validate the resulting features against empirical facts from economic literature.
Understanding the Downstream Instability of Word Embeddings
Leszczynski, Megan, May, Avner, Zhang, Jian, Wu, Sen, Aberger, Christopher R., Ré, Christopher
Many industrial machine learning (ML) systems require frequent retraining to keep up-to-date with constantly changing data. This retraining exacerbates a large challenge facing ML systems today: model training is unstable, i.e., small changes in training data can cause significant changes in the model's predictions. In this paper, we work on developing a deeper understanding of this instability, with a focus on how a core building block of modern natural language processing (NLP) pipelines---pre-trained word embeddings---affects the instability of downstream NLP models. We first empirically reveal a tradeoff between stability and memory: increasing the embedding memory 2x can reduce the disagreement in predictions due to small changes in training data by 5% to 37% (relative). To theoretically explain this tradeoff, we introduce a new measure of embedding instability---the eigenspace instability measure---which we prove bounds the disagreement in downstream predictions introduced by the change in word embeddings. Practically, we show that the eigenspace instability measure can be a cost-effective way to choose embedding parameters to minimize instability without training downstream models, outperforming other embedding distance measures and performing competitively with a nearest neighbor-based measure. Finally, we demonstrate that the observed stability-memory tradeoffs extend to other types of embeddings as well, including knowledge graph and contextual word embeddings.
A Semi-supervised Graph Attentive Network for Financial Fraud Detection
Wang, Daixin, Lin, Jianbin, Cui, Peng, Jia, Quanhui, Wang, Zhen, Fang, Yanming, Yu, Quan, Zhou, Jun, Yang, Shuang, Qi, Yuan
With the rapid growth of financial services, fraud detection has been a very important problem to guarantee a healthy environment for both users and providers. Conventional solutions for fraud detection mainly use some rule-based methods or distract some features manually to perform prediction. However, in financial services, users have rich interactions and they themselves always show multifaceted information. These data form a large multiview network, which is not fully exploited by conventional methods. Additionally, among the network, only very few of the users are labelled, which also poses a great challenge for only utilizing labeled data to achieve a satisfied performance on fraud detection. To address the problem, we expand the labeled data through their social relations to get the unlabeled data and propose a semi-supervised attentive graph neural network, namedSemiGNN to utilize the multi-view labeled and unlabeled data for fraud detection. Moreover, we propose a hierarchical attention mechanism to better correlate different neighbors and different views. Simultaneously, the attention mechanism can make the model interpretable and tell what are the important factors for the fraud and why the users are predicted as fraud. Experimentally, we conduct the prediction task on the users of Alipay, one of the largest third-party online and offline cashless payment platform serving more than 4 hundreds of million users in China. By utilizing the social relations and the user attributes, our method can achieve a better accuracy compared with the state-of-the-art methods on two tasks. Moreover, the interpretable results also give interesting intuitions regarding the tasks.
Are You an Introvert or Extrovert? Accurate Classification With Only Ten Predictors
This paper investigates how accurately the prediction of being an introvert vs. extrovert can be made with less than ten predictors. The study is based on a previous data collection of 7161 respondents of a survey on 91 personality and 3 demographic items. The results show that it is possible to effectively reduce the size of this measurement instrument from 94 to 10 features with a performance loss of only 1%, achieving an accuracy of 73.81% on unseen data. Class imbalance correction methods like SMOTE or ADASYN showed considerable improvement on the validation set but only minor performance improvement on the testing set.
Amateur Drones Detection: A machine learning approach utilizing the acoustic signals in the presence of strong interference
Uddin, Zahoor, Altaf, Muhammad, Bilal, Muhammad, Nkenyereye, Lewis, Bashir, Ali Kashif
Owing to small size, sensing capabilities and autonomous nature, the Unmanned Air Vehicles (UAVs) have enormous applications in various areas, e.g., remote sensing, navigation, archaeology, journalism, environmental science, and agriculture. However, the unmonitored deployment of UAVs called the amateur drones (AmDr) can lead to serious security threats and risk to human life and infrastructure. Therefore, timely detection of the AmDr is essential for the protection and security of sensitive organizations, human life and other vital infrastructure. AmDrs can be detected using different techniques based on sound, video, thermal, and radio frequencies. However, the performance of these techniques is limited in sever atmospheric conditions. In this paper, we propose an efficient unsupervise machine learning approach of independent component analysis (ICA) to detect various acoustic signals i.e., sounds of bird, airplanes, thunderstorm, rain, wind and the UAVs in practical scenario. After unmixing the signals, the features like Mel Frequency Cepstral Coefficients (MFCC), the power spectral density (PSD) and the Root Mean Square Value (RMS) of the PSD are extracted by using ICA. The PSD and the RMS of PSD signals are extracted by first passing the signals from octave band filter banks. Based on the above features the signals are classified using Support Vector Machines (SVM) and K Nearest Neighbor (KNN) to detect the presence or absence of AmDr. Unique feature of the proposed technique is the detection of a single or multiple AmDrs at a time in the presence of multiple acoustic interfering signals. The proposed technique is verified through extensive simulations and it is observed that the RMS values of PSD with KNN performs better than the MFCC with KNN and SVM.
Universal consistency of the $k$-NN rule in metric spaces and Nagata dimension
Collins, Benoît, Kumari, Sushma, Pestov, Vladimir G.
The $k$ nearest neighbour learning rule (under the uniform distance tie breaking) is universally consistent in every metric space $X$ that is sigma-finite dimensional in the sense of Nagata. This was pointed out by C\'erou and Guyader (2006) as a consequence of the main result by those authors, combined with a theorem in real analysis sketched by D. Preiss (1971) (and elaborated in detail by Assouad and Quentin de Gromard (2006)). We show that it is possible to give a direct proof along the same lines as the original theorem of Charles J. Stone (1977) about the universal consistency of the $k$-NN classifier in the finite dimensional Euclidean space. The generalization is non-trivial because of the distance ties being more prevalent in the non-euclidean setting, and on the way we investigate the relevant geometric properties of the metrics and the limitations of the Stone argument, by constructing various examples.
Finding archetypal patterns for binary questionnaires
Cabero, Ismael, Epifanio, Irene
Archetypal analysis is an exploratory tool that explains a set of observations as mixtures of pure (extreme) patterns. If the patterns are actual observations of the sample, we refer to them as archetypoids. For the first time, we propose to use archetypoid analysis for binary observations. This tool can contribute to the understanding of a binary data set, as in the multivariate case. We illustrate the advantages of the proposed methodology in a simulation study and two applications, one exploring objects (rows) and the other exploring items (columns). One is related to determining student skill set profiles and the other to describing item response functions.