Single subject prediction of brain disorders in neuroimaging: promises and pitfalls.

Machine Learning is evidently a vast field and its study is one of the most enlightening tasks one could ever undertake. Today most of the business operations and innovations are done around ML and its innovative applications. A number of professionals are up-skilling themselves with advanced ML knowledge to thrive ahead in their respective fields. They are more keen on learning the offerings, advancements, experts' opinion and various nuances in context to machine learning or artificial intelligence (AI) as a whole. If you are tech-enthusiast and looking forward to learning some new ideas and innovations about machine learning, you can find plenty of comprehensive books that demonstrate and offer various skills, advice and learning opportunities.

We propose a nested reduced-rank regression (NRRR) approach in fitting regression model with multivariate functional responses and predictors, to achieve tailored dimension reduction and facilitate interpretation/visualization of the resulting functional model. Our approach is based on a two-level low-rank structure imposed on the functional regression surfaces. A global low-rank structure identifies a small set of latent principal functional responses and predictors that drives the underlying regression association. A local low-rank structure then controls the complexity and smoothness of the association between the principal functional responses and predictors. Through a basis expansion approach, the functional problem boils down to an interesting integrated matrix approximation task, where the blocks or submatrices of an integrated low-rank matrix share some common row space and/or column space. An iterative algorithm with convergence guarantee is developed. We establish the consistency of NRRR and also show through non-asymptotic analysis that it can achieve at least a comparable error rate to that of the reduced-rank regression. Simulation studies demonstrate the effectiveness of NRRR. We apply NRRR in an electricity demand problem, to relate the trajectories of the daily electricity consumption with those of the daily temperatures.

A machine learning algorithm is developed to forecast the CO2 emission intensities in electrical power grids in the Danish bidding zone DK2, distinguishing between average and marginal emissions. The analysis was done on data set comprised of a large number (473) of explanatory variables such as power production, demand, import, weather conditions etc. collected from selected neighboring zones. The number was reduced to less than 50 using both LASSO (a penalized linear regression analysis) and a forward feature selection algorithm. Three linear regression models that capture different aspects of the data (non-linearities and coupling of variables etc.) were created and combined into a final model using Softmax weighted average. Cross-validation is performed for debiasing and autoregressive moving average model (ARIMA) implemented to correct the residuals, making the final model the variant with exogenous inputs (ARIMAX). The forecasts with the corresponding uncertainties are given for two time horizons, below and above six hours. Marginal emissions came up independent of any conditions in the DK2 zone, suggesting that the marginal generators are located in the neighbouring zones. The developed methodology can be applied to any bidding zone in the European electricity network without requiring detailed knowledge about the zone.

Outlier detection is a key data mining task for identifying abnormal objects from massive data. Due to the high expense of acquiring ground truth, practitioners lean towards building a large number of unsupervised models for further combination and analysis, rather than relying on a single model out of reliability consideration. However, this poses scalability challenge to high-dimensional, large datasets. In this study, we propose a three-module framework called SUOD to address the challenge. It can accelerate outlier model building and scoring when a large number of base models are used. It focuses on three complementary levels to speed up the process while controlling prediction performance degradation at the same time. At the data level, its Random Projection module projects high-dimensional data onto diversified low-dimensional subspaces while preserving the pairwise distance relationship. At the model level, SUOD's Pseudo-supervised Approximation module can approximate and replace fitted unsupervised models by low-cost supervised regressors, leading to fast offline scoring on new-coming samples with better interpretability. At the system level, Balanced Parallel Scheduling module mitigates the workload imbalance within distributed systems, which is helpful for heterogeneous outlier ensembles. As the three modules are independent with different focuses, they have great flexibility to "mix and match". The framework is also designed with extensibility in mind. One may customize each module based on specific use cases, and the framework may be generalized to other learning tasks as well. Extensive experiments on more than 20 benchmark datasets demonstrate SUOD's effectiveness. In addition, a real-world deployment system on fraudulent claim analysis by IQVIA is also discussed. The full framework, documentation, and examples are openly shared at https://github.com/yzhao062/SUOD.

The concept of a random process has been recently extended to graph signals, whereby random graph processes are a class of multivariate stochastic processes whose coefficients are matrices with a \textit{graph-topological} structure. The system identification problem of a random graph process therefore revolves around determining its underlying topology, or mathematically, the graph shift operators (GSOs) i.e. an adjacency matrix or a Laplacian matrix. In the same work that introduced random graph processes, a \textit{batch} optimization method to solve for the GSO was also proposed for the random graph process based on a \textit{causal} vertex-time autoregressive model. To this end, the online version of this optimization problem was proposed via the framework of adaptive filtering. The modified stochastic gradient projection method was employed on the regularized least squares objective to create the filter. The recursion is divided into 3 regularized sub-problems to address issues like multi-convexity, sparsity, commutativity and bias. A discussion on convergence analysis is also included. Finally, experiments are conducted to illustrate the performance of the proposed algorithm, from traditional MSE measure to successful recovery rate regardless correct values, all of which to shed light on the potential, the limit and the possible research attempt of this work.

We introduce a novel random projection technique for efficiently reducing the dimension of very high-dimensional tensors. Building upon classical results on Gaussian random projections and Johnson-Lindenstrauss transforms~(JLT), we propose two tensorized random projection maps relying on the tensor train~(TT) and CP decomposition format, respectively. The two maps offer very low memory requirements and can be applied efficiently when the inputs are low rank tensors given in the CP or TT format. Our theoretical analysis shows that the dense Gaussian matrix in JLT can be replaced by a low-rank tensor implicitly represented in compressed form with random factors, while still approximately preserving the Euclidean distance of the projected inputs. In addition, our results reveal that the TT format is substantially superior to CP in terms of the size of the random projection needed to achieve the same distortion ratio. Experiments on synthetic data validate our theoretical analysis and demonstrate the superiority of the TT decomposition.

We consider the task of auditing ML models for individual bias/unfairness. We formalize the task in an optimization problem and develop a suite of inferential tools for the optimal value. Our tools permit us to obtain asymptotic confidence intervals and hypothesis tests that cover the target/control the Type I error rate exactly. To demonstrate the utility of our tools, we use them to reveal the gender and racial biases in Northpointe's COMPAS recidivism prediction instrument.

Legendre duality provides a variational lower-bound for the Kullback-Leibler divergence (KL) which can be estimated using samples, without explicit knowledge of the density ratio. We use this estimator, the \textit{KL Approximate Lower-bound Estimate} (KALE), in a contrastive setting for learning energy-based models, and show that it provides a maximum likelihood estimate (MLE). We then extend this procedure to adversarial training, where the discriminator represents the energy and the generator is the base measure of the energy-based model. Unlike in standard generative adversarial networks (GANs), the learned model makes use of both generator and discriminator to generate samples. This is achieved using Hamiltonian Monte Carlo in the latent space of the generator, using information from the discriminator, to find regions in that space that produce better quality samples. We also show that, unlike the KL, KALE enjoys smoothness properties that make it suitable for adversarial training, and provide convergence rates for KALE when the negative log density ratio belongs to the variational family. Finally, we demonstrate the effectiveness of this approach on simple datasets.

In order to compute fast approximations to the singular value decompositions (SVD) of very large matrices, randomized sketching algorithms have become a leading approach. However, a key practical difficulty of sketching an SVD is that the user does not know how far the sketched singular vectors/values are from the exact ones. Indeed, the user may be forced to rely on analytical worst-case error bounds, which do not account for the unique structure of a given problem. As a result, the lack of tools for error estimation often leads to much more computation than is really necessary. To overcome these challenges, this paper develops a fully data-driven bootstrap method that numerically estimates the actual error of sketched singular vectors/values. In particular, this allows the user to inspect the quality of a rough initial sketched SVD, and then adaptively predict how much extra work is needed to reach a given error tolerance. Furthermore, the method is computationally inexpensive, because it operates only on sketched objects, and it requires no passes over the full matrix being factored. Lastly, the method is supported by theoretical guarantees and a very encouraging set of experimental results.