There is a rich literature on Bayesian nonparametric methods for unknown densities. The most popular approach relies on Dirichlet process mixture models. These models characterize the unknown density as a kernel convolution with an unknown almost surely discrete mixing measure, which is given a Dirichlet process prior. Such models are very flexible and have good performance in many settings, but posterior computation relies on Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms that can be complex and inefficient. As a simple and general alternative, we propose a class of nearest neighbor-Dirichlet processes. The approach starts by grouping the data into neighborhoods based on standard algorithms. Within each neighborhood, the density is characterized via a Bayesian parametric model, such as a Gaussian with unknown parameters. Assigning a Dirichlet prior to the weights on these local kernels, we obtain a simple pseudo-posterior for the weights and kernel parameters. A simple and embarrassingly parallel Monte Carlo algorithm is proposed to sample from the resulting pseudo-posterior for the unknown density. Desirable asymptotic properties are shown, and the methods are evaluated in simulation studies and applied to a motivating dataset in the context of classification.

Causal Inference methods based on observational data are an alternative for applications where collecting the counterfactual data or realizing a more standard experiment is not possible. In this work, our goal is to combine several observational causal inference methods to learn new causes in applications where some causes are well known. We validate the proposed method on The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA) dataset to identify genes that potentially cause metastasis.

When applying machine learning/statistical methods to the environmental sciences, nonlinear regression (NLR) models often perform only slightly better and occasionally worse than linear regression (LR). The proposed reason for this conundrum is that NLR models can give predictions much worse than LR when given input data which lie outside the domain used in model training. Continuous unbounded variables are widely used in environmental sciences, whence not uncommon for new input data to lie far outside the training domain. For six environmental datasets, inputs in the test data were classified as "outliers" and "non-outliers" based on the Mahalanobis distance from the training input data. The prediction scores (mean absolute error, Spearman correlation) showed NLR to outperform LR for the non-outliers, but often underperform LR for the outliers. An approach based on Occam's Razor (OR) was proposed, where linear extrapolation was used instead of nonlinear extrapolation for the outliers. The linear extrapolation to the outlier domain was based on the NLR model within the non-outlier domain. This NLR$_{\mathrm{OR}}$ approach reduced occurrences of very poor extrapolation by NLR, and it tended to outperform NLR and LR for the outliers. In conclusion, input test data should be screened for outliers. For outliers, the unreliable NLR predictions can be replaced by NLR$_{\mathrm{OR}}$ or LR predictions, or by issuing a "no reliable prediction" warning.

Variational Auto-encoders (VAEs) are deep generative latent variable models consisting of two components: a generative model that captures a data distribution p(x) by transforming a distribution p(z) over latent space, and an inference model that infers likely latent codes for each data point (Kingma and Welling, 2013). Recent work shows that traditional training methods tend to yield solutions that violate modeling desiderata: (1) the learned generative model captures the observed data distribution but does so while ignoring the latent codes, resulting in codes that do not represent the data (e.g. van den Oord et al. (2017); Kim et al. (2018)); (2) the aggregate of the learned latent codes does not match the prior p(z). This mismatch means that the learned generative model will be unable to generate realistic data with samples from p(z)(e.g. Makhzani et al. (2015); Tomczak and Welling (2017)). In this paper, we demonstrate that both issues stem from the fact that the global optima of the VAE training objective often correspond to undesirable solutions. Our analysis builds on two observations: (1) the generative model is unidentifiable - there exist many generative models that explain the data equally well, each with different (and potentially unwanted) properties and (2) bias in the VAE objective - the VAE objective may prefer generative models that explain the data poorly but have posteriors that are easy to approximate. We present a novel inference method, LiBI, mitigating the problems identified in our analysis. On synthetic datasets, we show that LiBI can learn generative models that capture the data distribution and inference models that better satisfy modeling assumptions when traditional methods struggle to do so.

We describe nonparametric deconvolution models (NDMs), a family of Bayesian nonparametric models for collections of data in which each observation is the average over the features from heterogeneous particles. For example, these types of data are found in elections, where we observe precinct-level vote tallies (observations) of individual citizens' votes (particles) across each of the candidates or ballot measures (features), where each voter is part of a specific voter cohort or demographic (factor). Like the hierarchical Dirichlet process, NDMs rely on two tiers of Dirichlet processes to explain the data with an unknown number of latent factors; each observation is modeled as a weighted average of these latent factors. Unlike existing models, NDMs recover how factor distributions vary locally for each observation. This uniquely allows NDMs both to deconvolve each observation into its constituent factors, and also to describe how the factor distributions specific to each observation vary across observations and deviate from the corresponding global factors. We present variational inference techniques for this family of models and study its performance on simulated data and voting data from California. We show that including local factors improves estimates of global factors and provides a novel scaffold for exploring data.

Partial multi-label learning (PML) models the scenario where each training instance is annotated with a set of candidate labels, and only some of the labels are relevant. The PML problem is practical in real-world scenarios, as it is difficult and even impossible to obtain precisely labeled samples. Several PML solutions have been proposed to combat with the prone misled by the irrelevant labels concealed in the candidate labels, but they generally focus on the smoothness assumption in feature space or low-rank assumption in label space, while ignore the negative information between features and labels. Specifically, if two instances have largely overlapped candidate labels, irrespective of their feature similarity, their ground-truth labels should be similar; while if they are dissimilar in the feature and candidate label space, their ground-truth labels should be dissimilar with each other. To achieve a credible predictor on PML data, we propose a novel approach called PML-LFC (Partial Multi-label Learning with Label and Feature Collaboration). PML-LFC estimates the confidence values of relevant labels for each instance using the similarity from both the label and feature spaces, and trains the desired predictor with the estimated confidence values. PML-LFC achieves the predictor and the latent label matrix in a reciprocal reinforce manner by a unified model, and develops an alternative optimization procedure to optimize them. Extensive empirical study on both synthetic and real-world datasets demonstrates the superiority of PML-LFC.

Many machine learning problems consider data where each instance is, itself, an unordered set of elements; i.e., such that each observation is a set. Data of this kind arises in a variety of applications, ranging from document modeling (Blei et al., 2003; Garnelo et al., 2018a) and multi-task learning (Zaheer et al., 2017; Edwards & Storkey, 2016; Liu et al., 2019) to 3D point cloud modeling (Li et al., 2018; Yang et al., 2019). In unsupervised settings, a dataset typically consists of a set of such sets, while in supervised learning, it consists of a set of (set, label) pairs. Modeling a distribution over a space of instances, where each instance is, itself, an unordered set of elements involves two key considerations: (1) the elements within a single instance are exchangeable, i.e., the elements are order invariant; and (2) the cardinalities of the instances (sets) vary, i.e., instances need not exhibit the same cardinality. Modeling both unconditional and conditional distributions over instances (sets) are relevant to consider, since these support unsupervised and supervised tasks respectively. For unconditional distribution modeling, there has been significant prior work on modeling set distributions, which has sought to balance competing needs to expand model flexibility and preserve tractability on the one hand, with respecting exchangeability and varying instance cardinalities on the other hand. However, managing these tradeoffs has proved to be quite difficult, and current approaches remain limited in different respects. For example, a particularly straightforward strategy for modeling distributions over instances x {x 1,..., x n } without assuming fixed cardinality is simply to use a recurrent neural network (RNNs) to encode instance probability auto-regressively via p (x) n

AutoML-Zero aims to automatically discover computer programs that can solve machine learning tasks, starting from empty or random programs and using only basic math operations. The goal is to simultaneously search for all aspects of an ML algorithm--including the model structure and the learning strategy--while employing minimal human bias. Despite AutoML-Zero's challenging search space, evolutionary search shows promising results by discovering linear regression with gradient descent, 2-layer neural networks with backpropagation, and even algorithms that surpass hand designed baselines of comparable complexity. The figure above shows an example sequence of discoveries from one of our experiments, evolving algorithms to solve binary classification tasks. Notably, the evolved algorithms can be interpreted.

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KernelExplainer:- Kernel SHAP is a method that uses a special weighted linear regression to compute the importance of each feature.