The economic and banking importance of the small and medium enterprise (SME) sector is well recognized in contemporary society. Business credit loans are very important for the operation of SMEs, and the revenue is a key indicator of credit limit management. Therefore, it is very beneficial to construct a reliable revenue forecasting model. If the uncertainty of an enterprise's revenue forecasting can be estimated, a more proper credit limit can be granted. Natural gradient boosting approach, which estimates the uncertainty of prediction by a multi-parameter boosting algorithm based on the natural gradient. However, its original implementation is not easy to scale into big data scenarios, and computationally expensive compared to state-of-the-art tree-based models (such as XGBoost). In this paper, we propose a Scalable Natural Gradient Boosting Machines that is simple to implement, readily parallelizable, interpretable and yields high-quality predictive uncertainty estimates. According to the characteristics of revenue distribution, we derive an uncertainty quantification function. We demonstrate that our method can distinguish between samples that are accurate and inaccurate on revenue forecasting of SMEs. What's more, interpretability can be naturally obtained from the model, satisfying the financial needs.

We introduce AVA, an automatic evaluation approach for Question Answering, which given a set of questions associated with Gold Standard answers, can estimate system Accuracy. AVA uses Transformer-based language models to encode question, answer, and reference text. This allows for effectively measuring the similarity between the reference and an automatic answer, biased towards the question semantics. To design, train and test AVA, we built multiple large training, development, and test sets on both public and industrial benchmarks. Our innovative solutions achieve up to 74.7% in F1 score in predicting human judgement for single answers. Additionally, AVA can be used to evaluate the overall system Accuracy with an RMSE, ranging from 0.02 to 0.09, depending on the availability of multiple references.

Precipitation data collected at sub-hourly resolution represents specific challenges for missing data recovery by being largely stochastic in nature and highly unbalanced in the duration of rain vs nonrain. Here we present a two-step analysis utilising current machine learning techniques for imputing precipitation data sampled at 30-minute intervals by devolving the task into (a) the classification of rain or non-rain samples, and (b) regressing the absolute values of predicted rain samples. Investigating 37 weather stations in the UK, this machine learning process produces more accurate predictions for recovering precipitation data than an established surface fitting technique utilising neighbouring rain gauges. Increasing available features for the training of machine learning algorithms increases performance with the integration of weather data at the target site with externally sourced rain gauges providing the highest performance. This method informs machine learning models by utilising information in concurrently collected environmental data to make accurate predictions of missing rain data. Capturing complex nonlinear relationships from weakly correlated variables is critical for data recovery at sub-hourly resolutions. Such pipelines for data recovery can be developed and deployed for highly automated and near instantaneous imputation of missing values in ongoing datasets at high temporal resolutions. Keywords: machine learning, data imputation, gradient boosted trees, environmental sensor networks, precipitation, soil moisture 1. Introduction Precipitation data is of critical importance across multiple lines of enquiry, informing statistical models and analysis relating to weather forecasting, extreme weather events, climate change, water-resource management, droughts, flooding, agricultural impact, and hydroelectric power. Historical rainfall data can reveal long term trends in environmental hydrological issues with real-time data input allowing for immediate forecasting of future conditions. Distributed networks of rain gauges are typically used to provide precipitation data at the earth's surface at varying temporal resolutions and can cover large geographical areas (Kidd, 2001). As is the case in many databases, particularly those utilising physical sensors, the problem of missing data arises. Missing data can be a result of sensor failure, data storage/transmission failure, or post-collection quality control procedures resulting in removal of identified problem data (Blenkinsop et al., 2017). Missing data in precipitation databases represents a serious limitation for the effective use of the data. Given the global scale and importance of precipitation and meteorological data (Sun et al., 2018), developing solutions to missing data is of paramount importance for maximising information gain.

You guys are mostly familiar with the Trending word Machine Learning . Some of you also know the types of Machine Learning . So you must be wondering what value you will get in the article . See, We all know generally, There are 3 types of Machine Learning: Supervised, Unsupervised, reinforcement Learning . Some of us have also read about semi supervised learning as hybrid of supervised and unsupervised learning .

If yes, then you've landed on the right 5 part blog series which will provide you with all the practical information that you will need to derive real life value from data.

Multimodal relational data analysis has become of increasing importance in recent years, for exploring across different domains of data, such as images and their text tags obtained from social networking services (e.g., Flickr). A variety of data analysis methods have been developed for visualization; to give an example, t-Stochastic Neighbor Embedding (t-SNE) computes low-dimensional feature vectors so that their similarities keep those of the observed data vectors. However, t-SNE is designed only for a single domain of data but not for multimodal data; this paper aims at visualizing multimodal relational data consisting of data vectors in multiple domains with relations across these vectors. By extending t-SNE, we herein propose Multimodal Relational Stochastic Neighbor Embedding (MR-SNE), that (1) first computes augmented relations, where we observe the relations across domains and compute those within each of domains via the observed data vectors, and (2) jointly embeds the augmented relations to a low-dimensional space. Through visualization of Flickr and Animal with Attributes 2 datasets, proposed MR-SNE is compared with other graph embedding-based approaches; MR-SNE demonstrates the promising performance.

We would like to begin this rejoinder with expressing our sincere gratitude to all of the discussants for their interesting and thought-provoking comments and remarks. We also feel heartily thankful to the editorial board of Bayesian Analysis for giving us the opportunity to publish our paper entitled "A novel algorithmic approach to Bayesian logic regression" (Hubin et al., 2020a) as a discussion article. Logic regression is a tool to model nonlinear relationships between binary covariates and some response variable by constructing predictors as Boolean combinations. The number of possible logic expressions grows exponentially with the number of binary variables involved, making the model search significantly harder with the increasing complexity of Boolean combinations. Due to Boolean equivalence, it is in fact almost impossible to specify the full model space a priori even for a relatively small number of covariates.

Data sparsity is a common issue to train machine learning tools such as neural networks for engineering and scientific applications, where experiments and simulations are expensive. Recently physics-constrained neural networks (PCNNs) were developed to reduce the required amount of training data. However, the weights of different losses from data and physical constraints are adjusted empirically in PCNNs. In this paper, a new physics-constrained neural network with the minimax architecture (PCNNMM) is proposed so that the weights of different losses can be adjusted systematically. The training of the PCNN-MM is searching the high-order saddle points of the objective function. A novel saddle point search algorithm called Dual-Dimer method is developed. It is demonstrated that the Dual-Dimer method is computationally more efficient than the gradient descent ascent method for nonconvex-nonconcave functions and provides additional eigenvalue information to verify search results. A heat transfer example also shows that the convergence of PCNN-MMs is faster than that of traditional PCNNs.

This paper proposes a simple method to extract from a set of multiple related time series a compressed representation for each time series based on statistics for the entire set of all time series. This is achieved by a hierarchical algorithm that first generates an alphabet of shapelets based on the segmentation of centroids for clustered data, before labels of these shapelets are assigned to the segmentation of each single time series via nearest neighbor search using unconstrained dynamic time warping as distance measure to deal with non-uniform time series lenghts. Thereby, a sequence of labels is assigned for each time series. Completion of the last label sequence permits prediction of individual time series. Proposed method is evaluated on two global COVID-19 datasets, first, for the number of daily net cases (daily new infections minus daily recoveries), and, second, for the number of daily deaths attributed to COVID-19 as of April 27, 2020. The first dataset involves 249 time series for different countries, each of length 96. The second dataset involves 264 time series, each of length 96. Based on detected anomalies in available data a decentralized exit strategy from lockdowns is advocated.

In recent years, the concept of automated machine learning has become very popular. Automated Machine Learning (AutoML) mainly refers to the automated methods for model selection and hyper-parameter optimization of various algorithms such as random forests, gradient boosting, neural networks, etc. In this paper, we introduce a new package i.e. DriveML for automated machine learning. DriveML helps in implementing some of the pillars of an automated machine learning pipeline such as automated data preparation, feature engineering, model building and model explanation by running the function instead of writing lengthy R codes. The DriveML package is available in CRAN. We compare the DriveML package with other relevant packages in CRAN/Github and find that DriveML performs the best across different parameters. We also provide an illustration by applying the DriveML package with default configuration on a real world dataset. Overall, the main benefits of DriveML are in development time savings, reduce developer's errors, optimal tuning of machine learning models and reproducibility.