This paper reviews current literature in the field of predictive maintenance from the system point of view. We differentiate the existing capabilities of condition estimation and failure risk forecasting as currently applied to simple components, from the capabilities needed to solve the same tasks for complex assets. System-level analysis faces more complex latent degradation states, it has to comprehensively account for active maintenance programs at each component level and consider coupling between different maintenance actions, while reflecting increased monetary and safety costs for system failures. As a result, methods that are effective for forecasting risk and informing maintenance decisions regarding individual components do not readily scale to provide reliable sub-system or system level insights. A novel holistic modeling approach is needed to incorporate available structural and physical knowledge and naturally handle the complexities of actively fielded and maintained assets.

Heavy rainfall events can cause major disruption to human activities. It is desirable to predict these events ahead of time so that decision makers can take action to protect life, property and prosperity. Nowcasting, or short-term forecasting from observations, remains an important tool in predicting these events. The essential goals of nowcasting are identical to those of all weather forecasting, with the only difference being the spatial and temporal scales involved. The World Meteorological Organization (WMO, 2016) distinguishes among the various forecasting time horizons as: "Usually forecasts for the next 0-2 hours are called nowcasting, from 2-12 hours very short-range forecasting (VSRF), and short-range forecasting beyond that; but the capabilities of the different ranges can vary upon variables and weather situations." Radar-based nowcasting emerged in an era of mainly synoptic and mesoscale weather prediction. Predicting rainfall during that time was a challenge for numerical weather prediction (NWP) models, since computational restrictions limited the resolution at which NWP models could operate. As a result, NWP models were able to capture mesoscale weather patterns such as fronts, but not the smaller-scale convective patterns that occur within mesoscale systems. Thus, these models had limited utility in predicting rainfall in the early hours of the forecast because of its dependence on the unrepresented small scales.

Federated learning is a rapidly evolving application of distributed optimization for estimation and learning problems in large-scale networks of remote clients [13]. These systems present new challenges, as they are characterized by heterogeneity in computational resources and data across the network, unreliable communication, massive scale, and privacy constraints [16]. A typical application is for developers of cell phones and cellular applications to model the usage of software and devices across millions or even billions of users. Distributed optimization has a rich history and extensive literature (e.g., see the sources [2, 5, 8, 31, 15, 24] and references therein), and federated learning has led to a flurry of interest in the area. A number of different procedures have been proposed for federated learning and related problems, using methods based on stochastic gradient methods or proximal procedures. Notably, McMahan et al. [18] introduced the FedSGD and FedAvg algorithms, which both adapt the classical stochastic gradient method to the federated setting, considering the possibility that clients may fail and may only be subsampled on each round of computation. Another recent proposal has been to use regularized local problems to mitigate possible issues that arise with device heterogeneity and failures [17]. These authors propose the FedProx procedure, an algorithm that applied averaged proximal updates to solve federated minimization problems. Currently, the convergence theory and correctness of these methods is currently lacking, and practitioners have documented failures of convergence in certain settings (e.g., see Figure 3 and related discussion in the work [18]).

Recently, in many systems such as speech recognition and visual processing, deep learning has been widely implemented. In this research, we are exploring the possibility of using deep learning in community detection among the graph datasets. Graphs have gained growing traction in different fields, including social networks, information graphs, the recommender system, and also life sciences. In this paper, we propose a method of community detection clustering the nodes of various graph datasets. We cluster different category datasets that belong to Affiliation networks, Animal networks, Human contact networks, Human social networks, Miscellaneous networks. The deep learning role in modeling the interaction between nodes in a network allows a revolution in the field of science relevant to graph network analysis. In this paper, we extend the gumbel softmax approach to graph network clustering. The experimental findings on specific graph datasets reveal that the new approach outperforms traditional clustering significantly, which strongly shows the efficacy of deep learning in graph community detection clustering. We do a series of experiments on our graph clustering algorithm, using various datasets: Zachary karate club, Highland Tribe, Train bombing, American Revolution, Dolphins, Zebra, Windsurfers, Les Mis\'erables, Political books.

Random forest is a popular prediction approach for handling high dimensional covariates. However, it often becomes infeasible to interpret the obtained high dimensional and non-parametric model. Aiming for obtaining an interpretable predictive model, we develop a forward variable selection method using the continuous ranked probability score (CRPS) as the loss function. Our stepwise procedure leads to a smallest set of variables that optimizes the CRPS risk by performing at each step a hypothesis test on a significant decrease in CRPS risk. We provide mathematical motivation for our method by proving that in population sense the method attains the optimal set. Additionally, we show that the test is consistent provided that the random forest estimator of a quantile function is consistent. In a simulation study, we compare the performance of our method with an existing variable selection method, for different sample sizes and different correlation strength of covariates. Our method is observed to have a much lower false positive rate. We also demonstrate an application of our method to statistical post-processing of daily maximum temperature forecasts in the Netherlands. Our method selects about 10% covariates while retaining the same predictive power.

Partial label (PL) learning tackles the problem where each training instance is associated with a set of candidate labels that include both the true label and irrelevant noise labels. In this paper, we propose a novel multi-level generative model for partial label learning (MGPLL), which tackles the problem by learning both a label level adversarial generator and a feature level adversarial generator under a bi-directional mapping framework between the label vectors and the data samples. Specifically, MGPLL uses a conditional noise label generation network to model the non-random noise labels and perform label denoising, and uses a multi-class predictor to map the training instances to the denoised label vectors, while a conditional data feature generator is used to form an inverse mapping from the denoised label vectors to data samples. Both the noise label generator and the data feature generator are learned in an adversarial manner to match the observed candidate labels and data features respectively. Extensive experiments are conducted on synthesized and real-world partial label datasets. The proposed approach demonstrates the state-of-the-art performance for partial label learning.

Individual treatment effect (ITE) represents the expected improvement in the outcome of taking a particular action to a particular target, and plays important roles in decision making in various domains. However, its estimation problem is difficult because intervention studies to collect information regarding the applied treatments (i.e., actions) and their outcomes are often quite expensive in terms of time and monetary costs. In this study, we consider a semi-supervised ITE estimation problem that exploits more easily-available unlabeled instances to improve the performance of ITE estimation using small labeled data. We combine two ideas from causal inference and semi-supervised learning, namely, matching and label propagation, respectively, to propose counterfactual propagation, which is the first semi-supervised ITE estimation method. Experiments using semi-real datasets demonstrate that the proposed method can successfully mitigate the data scarcity problem in ITE estimation.

Traditional clustering methods are limited when dealing with huge and heterogeneous groups of gene expression data, which motivates the development of bi-clustering methods. Bi-clustering methods are used to mine bi-clusters whose subsets of samples (genes) are co-regulated under their test conditions. Studies show that mining bi-clusters of consistent trends and trends with similar degrees of fluctuations from the gene expression data is essential in bioinformatics research. Unfortunately, traditional bi-clustering methods are not fully effective in discovering such bi-clusters. Therefore, we propose a novel bi-clustering method by involving here the theory of Granular Computing. In the proposed scheme, the gene data matrix, considered as a group of time series, is transformed into a series of ordered information granules. With the information granules we build a characteristic matrix of the gene data to capture the fluctuation trend of the expression value between consecutive conditions to mine the ideal bi-clusters. The experimental results are in agreement with the theoretical analysis, and show the excellent performance of the proposed method.

Despite significant effort, building models that are both interpretable and accurate is an unresolved challenge for many pattern recognition problems. In general, rule-based and linear models lack accuracy, while deep learning interpretability is based on rough approximations of the underlying inference. Using a linear combination of conjunctive clauses in propositional logic, Tsetlin Machines (TMs) have shown competitive performance on diverse benchmarks. However, to do so, many clauses are needed, which impacts interpretability. Here, we address the accuracy-interpretability challenge in machine learning by equipping the TM clauses with integer weights. The resulting Integer Weighted TM (IWTM) deals with the problem of learning which clauses are inaccurate and thus must team up to obtain high accuracy as a team (low weight clauses), and which clauses are sufficiently accurate to operate more independently (high weight clauses). Since each TM clause is formed adaptively by a team of Tsetlin Automata, identifying effective weights becomes a challenging online learning problem. We address this problem by extending each team of Tsetlin Automata with a stochastic searching on the line (SSL) automaton. In our novel scheme, the SSL automaton learns the weight of its clause in interaction with the corresponding Tsetlin Automata team, which, in turn, adapts the composition of the clause by the adjusting weight. We evaluate IWTM empirically using five datasets, including a study of interpetability. On average, IWTM uses 6.5 times fewer literals than the vanilla TM and 120 times fewer literals than a TM with real-valued weights. Furthermore, in terms of average F1-Score, IWTM outperforms simple Multi-Layered Artificial Neural Networks, Decision Trees, Support Vector Machines, K-Nearest Neighbor, Random Forest, XGBoost, Explainable Boosting Machines, and standard and real-value weighted TMs.

This paper describes implementation details for a 3-level cognitive model, described in the paper series. The whole architecture is now modular, with different levels using different types of information. The ensemble-hierarchy relationship is maintained and placed in the bottom optimising and middle aggregating levels, to store memory objects and their relations. The top-level cognitive layer has been re-designed to model the Cognitive Process Language (CPL) of an earlier paper, by refactoring it into a network structure with a light scheduler. The cortex brain region is thought to be hierarchical - clustering from simple to more complex features. The refactored network might therefore challenge conventional thinking on that brain region. It is also argued that the function and structure in particular, of the new top level, is similar to the psychology theory of chunking. The model is still only a framework and does not have enough information for real intelligence. But a framework is now implemented over the whole design and so can give a more complete picture about the potential for results.