We study a contextual bandit setting where the learning agent has access to sampled bandit instances from an unknown prior distribution $\mathcal{P}$. The goal of the agent is to achieve high reward on average over the instances drawn from $\mathcal{P}$. This setting is of a particular importance because it formalizes the offline optimization of bandit policies, to perform well on average over anticipated bandit instances. The main idea in our work is to optimize differentiable bandit policies by policy gradients. We derive reward gradients that reflect the structure of our problem, and propose contextual policies that are parameterized in a differentiable way and have low regret. Our algorithmic and theoretical contributions are supported by extensive experiments that show the importance of baseline subtraction, learned biases, and the practicality of our approach on a range of classification tasks.

We present CRISP (COVID-19 Risk Score Prediction), a probabilistic graphical model for COVID-19 infection spread through a population based on the SEIR model where we assume access to (1) mutual contacts between pairs of individuals across time across various channels (e.g., Bluetooth contact traces), as well as (2) test outcomes at given times for infection, exposure and immunity tests. Our micro-level model keeps track of the infection state for each individual at every point in time, ranging from susceptible, exposed, infectious to recovered. We develop a Monte Carlo EM algorithm to infer contact-channel specific infection transmission probabilities. Our algorithm uses Gibbs sampling to draw samples of the latent infection status of each individual over the entire time period of analysis, given the latent infection status of all contacts and test outcome data. Experimental results with simulated data demonstrate our CRISP model can be parametrized by the reproduction factor $R_0$ and exhibits population-level infectiousness and recovery time series similar to those of the classical SEIR model. However, due to the individual contact data, this model allows fine grained control and inference for a wide range of COVID-19 mitigation and suppression policy measures. Moreover, the algorithm is able to support efficient testing in a test-trace-isolate approach to contain COVID-19 infection spread. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first model with efficient inference for COVID-19 infection spread based on individual-level contact data; most epidemic models are macro-level models that reason over entire populations. The implementation of CRISP is available in Python and C++ at https://github.com/zalandoresearch/CRISP.

Gaussian processes offer an attractive framework for predictive modeling from longitudinal data, i.e., irregularly sampled, sparse observations from a set of individuals over time. However, such methods have two key shortcomings: (i) They rely on ad hoc heuristics or expensive trial and error to choose the effective kernels, and (ii) They fail to handle multilevel correlation structure in the data. We introduce Longitudinal deep kernel Gaussian process regression (L-DKGPR), which to the best of our knowledge, is the only method to overcome these limitations by fully automating the discovery of complex multilevel correlation structure from longitudinal data. Specifically, L-DKGPR eliminates the need for ad hoc heuristics or trial and error using a novel adaptation of deep kernel learning that combines the expressive power of deep neural networks with the flexibility of non-parametric kernel methods. L-DKGPR effectively learns the multilevel correlation with a novel addictive kernel that simultaneously accommodates both time-varying and the time-invariant effects. We derive an efficient algorithm to train L-DKGPR using latent space inducing points and variational inference. Results of extensive experiments on several benchmark data sets demonstrate that L-DKGPR significantly outperforms the state-of-the-art longitudinal data analysis (LDA) methods.

Linear regression is a linear approach to modeling the relationship between a scalar response (or dependent variable) and one or more explanatory variables (or independent variables). In geometric interpretation terms, the linear regression algorithm tries to find a plane or line that best fits the data points as well as possible. Linear regression is a regression technique that predicts real value. What does the term "finding plane that best fits the data points" mean? For the above-given sample 2-dimension dataset (Image 1), the general equation of the line that covers as numbers of points as possible is y m*x c, where m is the slope of the line, and c is the intercept term.

Traditional multi-view learning methods often rely on two assumptions: ($i$) the samples in different views are well-aligned, and ($ii$) their representations in latent space obey the same distribution. Unfortunately, these two assumptions may be questionable in practice, which limits the application of multi-view learning. In this work, we propose a hierarchical optimal transport (HOT) method to mitigate the dependency on these two assumptions. Given unaligned multi-view data, the HOT method penalizes the sliced Wasserstein distance between the distributions of different views. These sliced Wasserstein distances are used as the ground distance to calculate the entropic optimal transport across different views, which explicitly indicates the clustering structure of the views. The HOT method is applicable to both unsupervised and semi-supervised learning, and experimental results show that it performs robustly on both synthetic and real-world tasks.

A common distinction in fair machine learning, in particular in fair classification, is between group fairness and individual fairness. In the context of clustering, group fairness has been studied extensively in recent years; however, individual fairness for clustering has hardly been explored. In this paper, we propose a natural notion of individual fairness for clustering. Our notion asks that every data point, on average, is closer to the points in its own cluster than to the points in any other cluster. We study several questions related to our proposed notion of individual fairness. On the negative side, we show that deciding whether a given data set allows for such an individually fair clustering in general is NP-hard. On the positive side, for the special case of a data set lying on the real line, we propose an efficient dynamic programming approach to find an individually fair clustering. For general data sets, we investigate heuristics aimed at minimizing the number of individual fairness violations and compare them to standard clustering approaches on real data sets.

Label spreading is a general technique for semi-supervised learning with point cloud or network data, which can be interpreted as a diffusion of labels on a graph. While there are many variants of label spreading, nearly all of them are linear models, where the incoming information to a node is a weighted sum of information from neighboring nodes. Here, we add nonlinearity to label spreading through nonlinear functions of higher-order structure in the graph, namely triangles in the graph. For a broad class of nonlinear functions, we prove convergence of our nonlinear higher-order label spreading algorithm to the global solution of a constrained semi-supervised loss function. We demonstrate the efficiency and efficacy of our approach on a variety of point cloud and network datasets, where the nonlinear higher-order model compares favorably to classical label spreading, as well as hypergraph models and graph neural networks.

Explaining predictions made by complex machine learning models helps users understand and accept the predicted outputs with confidence. Instance-based explanation provides such help by identifying relevant instances as evidence to support a model's prediction result. To find relevant instances, several relevance metrics have been proposed. In this study, we ask the following research question: "Do the metrics actually work in practice?" To address this question, we propose two sanity check criteria that valid metrics should pass, and two additional criteria to evaluate the practical utility of the metrics. All criteria are designed in terms of whether the metric can pick up instances of desirable properties that the users expect in practice. Through experiments, we obtained two insights. First, some popular relevance metrics do not pass sanity check criteria. Second, some metrics based on cosine similarity perform better than other metrics, which would be recommended choices in practice. We also analyze why some metrics are successful and why some are not. We expect our insights to help further researches such as developing better explanation methods or designing new evaluation criteria.

Motivated by the problem of optimization of force-field systems in physics using large-scale computer simulations, we consider exploration of a deterministic complex multivariate response surface. The objective is to find input combinations that generate output close to some desired or "target" vector. In spite of reducing the problem to exploration of the input space with respect to a one-dimensional loss function, the search is nontrivial and challenging due to infeasible input combinations, high dimensionalities of the input and output space and multiple "desirable" regions in the input space and the difficulty of emulating the objective function well with a surrogate model. We propose an approach that is based on combining machine learning techniques with smart experimental design ideas to locate multiple good regions in the input space.

This paper proposes an online learning method of Gaussian process state-space model (GP-SSM). GP-SSM is a probabilistic representation learning scheme that represents unknown state transition and/or measurement models as Gaussian processes (GPs). While the majority of prior literature on learning of GP-SSM are focused on processing a given set of time series data, data may arrive and accumulate sequentially over time in most dynamical systems. Storing all such sequential data and updating the model over entire data incur large amount of computational resources in space and time. To overcome this difficulty, we propose a practical method, termed \textit{onlineGPSSM}, that incorporates stochastic variational inference (VI) and online VI with novel formulation. The proposed method mitigates the computational complexity without catastrophic forgetting and also support adaptation to changes in a system and/or a real environments. Furthermore, we present application of onlineGPSSM into the reinforcement learning (RL) of partially observable dynamical systems by integrating onlineGPSSM with Bayesian filtering and trajectory optimization algorithms. Numerical examples are presented to demonstrate applicability of the proposed method.