We develop two methods for the following fundamental statistical task: given an $\epsilon$-corrupted set of $n$ samples from a $d$-dimensional sub-Gaussian distribution, return an approximate top eigenvector of the covariance matrix. Our first robust PCA algorithm runs in polynomial time, returns a $1 - O(\epsilon\log\epsilon^{-1})$-approximate top eigenvector, and is based on a simple iterative filtering approach. Our second, which attains a slightly worse approximation factor, runs in nearly-linear time and sample complexity under a mild spectral gap assumption. These are the first polynomial-time algorithms yielding non-trivial information about the covariance of a corrupted sub-Gaussian distribution without requiring additional algebraic structure of moments. As a key technical tool, we develop the first width-independent solvers for Schatten-$p$ norm packing semidefinite programs, giving a $(1 + \epsilon)$-approximate solution in $O(p\log(\tfrac{nd}{\epsilon})\epsilon^{-1})$ input-sparsity time iterations (where $n$, $d$ are problem dimensions).

Achieving statistically significant evaluation with passive sampling of test data is challenging in settings such as extreme classification and record linkage, where significant class imbalance is prevalent. Adaptive importance sampling focuses labeling on informative regions of the instance space, however it breaks data independence assumptions - commonly required for asymptotic guarantees that assure estimates approximate population performance and provide practical confidence intervals. In this paper we develop an adaptive importance sampling framework for supervised evaluation that defines a sequence of proposal distributions given a user-defined discriminative model of p(y|x) and a generalized performance measure to evaluate. Under verifiable conditions on the model and performance measure, we establish strong consistency and a (martingale) central limit theorem for resulting performance estimates. We instantiate our framework with worked examples given stochastic or deterministic label oracle access. Both examples leverage Dirichlet-tree models for practical online evaluation, with the deterministic case achieving asymptotic optimality. Experiments on seven datasets demonstrate an average mean-squared error superior to state-of-the-art samplers on fixed label budgets.

This paper develops a novel two-layer hierarchical classifier that increases the accuracy of traditional transportation mode classification algorithms. This paper also enhances classification accuracy by extracting new frequency domain features. Many researchers have obtained these features from global positioning system data; however, this data was excluded in this paper, as the system use might deplete the smartphone's battery and signals may be lost in some areas. Our proposed two-layer framework differs from previous classification attempts in three distinct ways: 1) the outputs of the two layers are combined using Bayes' rule to choose the transportation mode with the largest posterior probability; 2) the proposed framework combines the new extracted features with traditionally used time domain features to create a pool of features; and 3) a different subset of extracted features is used in each layer based on the classified modes. Several machine learning techniques were used, including k-nearest neighbor, classification and regression tree, support vector machine, random forest, and a heterogeneous framework of random forest and support vector machine. Results show that the classification accuracy of the proposed framework outperforms traditional approaches. Transforming the time domain features to the frequency domain also adds new features in a new space and provides more control on the loss of information. Consequently, combining the time domain and the frequency domain features in a large pool and then choosing the best subset results in higher accuracy than using either domain alone. The proposed two-layer classifier obtained a maximum classification accuracy of 97.02%.

Selective Inference (SI) has been actively studied in the past few years for conducting inference on the features of linear models that are adaptively selected by feature selection methods such as Lasso. The basic idea of SI is to make inference conditional on the selection event. Unfortunately, the main limitation of the original SI approach for Lasso, proposed in the seminal work by Lee et al. \cite{lee2016exact}, is that the inference is conducted not only conditional on the selected features but also on their signs---this leads to loss of power because of over-conditioning. Although this limitation can be circumvented by considering the union of such selection events for all possible combinations of signs, this is only feasible when the number of selected features is sufficiently small. To address this computational bottleneck, we propose a parametric programming-based method that can conduct SI without conditioning on signs even when we have thousands of active features. The main idea is to compute the continuum path of Lasso solutions in the direction of a test statistic, and identify the subset of the data space corresponding to the feature selection event by following the solution path. The proposed parametric programming-based method not only avoids the aforementioned computational bottleneck but also improves the performance and practicality of SI for Lasso in various respects. We conduct several experiments to demonstrate the effectiveness and efficiency of our proposed method.

We present a new approach for sampling conditional measures that enables uncertainty quantification in supervised learning tasks. We construct a mapping that transforms a reference measure to the probability measure of the output conditioned on new inputs. The mapping is trained via a modification of generative adversarial networks (GANs), called monotone GANs, that imposes monotonicity constraints and a block triangular structure. We present theoretical results, in an idealized setting, that support our proposed method as well as numerical experiments demonstrating the ability of our method to sample the correct conditional measures in applications ranging from inverse problems to image in-painting.

Survival regression is used to estimate the relation between time-to-event and feature variables, and is important in application domains such as medicine, marketing, risk management and sales management. Nonlinear tree based machine learning algorithms as implemented in libraries such as XGBoost, scikit-learn, LightGBM, and CatBoost are often more accurate in practice than linear models. However, existing implementations of tree-based models have offered limited support for survival regression. In this work, we propose and implement loss functions for learning accelerated failure time (AFT) models in XGBoost, to increase the support for survival modeling for different kinds of label censoring. The AFT model assumes effects that directly accelerate or decelerate the survival time for different kinds of censored data sets. We demonstrate with real and simulated experiments the effectiveness of AFT in XGBoost with respect to a number of baselines, in two respects: generalization performance and training speed. Furthermore, we take advantage of the support for NVIDIA GPUs in XGBoost to achieve substantial speedup over multi-coreCPUs. To our knowledge, our work is the first implementation of AFT that utilizes the processing power of NVIDIA GPUs.

Understanding the generalisation properties of Artificial Deep Neural Networks (ANN) has recently motivated a number of statistical questions. These models perform well in practice despite perfectly fitting (interpolating) the data, a property that seems at odds with classical statistical theory [49]. This has motivated the investigation of the generalisation performance of methods that achieve zero training error (interpolators) [32, 9, 11, 10, 8] and, in the context of linear least squares, the unique least norm solution to which gradient descent converges [22, 5, 37, 8, 21, 38, 20, 39]. Overparameterized linear models, where the number of variables exceed the number of points, are arguably the simplest and most natural setting where interpolation can be studied. Moreover, in certain regimes ANN can be approximated by suitable linear models [24, 17, 18, 2, 13]. The learning curve (test error versus model capacity) for interpolators has been shown to exhibit a characteristic "Double Descent" [1, 7] shape, where the test error decreases after peaking at the "interpolating" threshold, that is, the model capacity required to interpolate the data. The regime beyond this threshold naturally captures the settings of ANN [49], and thus, has motivated its investigation [36, 44, 39].

Existing methods for reducing disparate performance of a classifier across different demographic groups assume that one has access to a large data set, thereby focusing on the algorithmic aspect of optimizing overall performance subject to additional constraints. However, poor data collection and imbalanced data sets can severely affect the quality of these methods. In this work, we consider a setting where data collection and optimization are performed simultaneously. In such a scenario, a natural strategy to mitigate the performance difference of the classifier is to provide additional training data drawn from the demographic groups that are worse off. In this paper, we propose to consistently follow this strategy throughout the whole training process and to guide the resulting classifier towards equal performance on the different groups by adaptively sampling each data point from the group that is currently disadvantaged. We provide a rigorous theoretical analysis of our approach in a simplified one-dimensional setting and an extensive experimental evaluation on numerous real-world data sets, including a case study on the data collected during the Flint water crisis.

Differentially private gradient descent (DP-GD) has been extremely effective both theoretically, and in practice, for solving private empirical risk minimization (ERM) problems. In this paper, we focus on understanding the impact of the clipping norm, a critical component of DP-GD, on its convergence. We provide the first formal convergence analysis of clipped DP-GD. More generally, we show that the value which one sets for clipping really matters: done wrong, it can dramatically affect the resulting quality; done properly, it can eliminate the dependence of convergence on the model dimensionality. We do this by showing a dichotomous behavior of the clipping norm. First, we show that if the clipping norm is set smaller than the optimal, even by a constant factor, the excess empirical risk for convex ERMs can increase from $O(1/n)$ to $\Omega(1)$, where $n$ is the number of data samples. Next, we show that, regardless of the value of the clipping norm, clipped DP-GD minimizes a well-defined convex objective over an unconstrained space, as long as the underlying ERM is a generalized linear problem. Furthermore, if the clipping norm is set within at most a constant factor higher than the optimal, then one can obtain an excess empirical risk guarantee that is independent of the dimensionality of the model space. Finally, we extend our result to non-convex generalized linear problems by showing that DP-GD reaches a first-order stationary point as long as the loss is smooth, and the convergence is independent of the dimensionality of the model space.

We study the computation of non-regularized Wasserstein barycenters of probability measures supported on the finite set. The first result gives a stochastic optimization algorithm for the discrete distribution over the probability measures which is comparable with the current best algorithms. The second result extends the previous one to the arbitrary distribution using kernel methods. Moreover, this new algorithm has a total complexity better than the Stochastic Averaging approach via the Sinkhorn algorithm in many cases.