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 Statistical Learning


Towards Optimal Convergence Rate in Decentralized Stochastic Training

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Parallel training with decentralized communication is a promising method of scaling up machine learning systems. In this paper, we provide a tight lower bound on the iteration complexity for such methods in a stochastic non-convex setting. This lower bound reveals a theoretical gap in known convergence rates of many existing algorithms. To show this bound is tight and achievable, we propose DeFacto, a class of algorithms that converge at the optimal rate without additional theoretical assumptions. We discuss the trade-offs among different algorithms regarding complexity, memory efficiency, throughput, etc. Empirically, we compare DeFacto and other decentralized algorithms via training Resnet20 on CIFAR10 and Resnet110 on CIFAR100. We show DeFacto can accelerate training with respect to wall-clock time but progresses slowly in the first few epochs.


Timely Detection and Mitigation of Stealthy DDoS Attacks via IoT Networks

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Internet of Things (IoT) networks consist of sensors, actuators, mobile and wearable devices that can connect to the Internet. With billions of such devices already in the market which have significant vulnerabilities, there is a dangerous threat to the Internet services and also some cyber-physical systems that are also connected to the Internet. Specifically, due to their existing vulnerabilities IoT devices are susceptible to being compromised and being part of a new type of stealthy Distributed Denial of Service (DDoS) attack, called Mongolian DDoS, which is characterized by its widely distributed nature and small attack size from each source. This study proposes a novel anomaly-based Intrusion Detection System (IDS) that is capable of timely detecting and mitigating this emerging type of DDoS attacks. The proposed IDS's capability of detecting and mitigating stealthy DDoS attacks with even very low attack size per source is demonstrated through numerical and testbed experiments.


Support Estimation with Sampling Artifacts and Errors

arXiv.org Machine Learning

The problem of estimating the support of a distribution is of great importance in many areas of machine learning, computer science, physics and biology. Most of the existing work in this domain has focused on settings that assume perfectly accurate sampling approaches, which is seldom true in practical data science. Here we introduce the first known approach to support estimation in the presence of sampling artifacts and errors where each sample is assumed to arise from a Poisson repeat channel which simultaneously captures repetitions and deletions of samples. The proposed estimator is based on regularized weighted Chebyshev approximations, with weights governed by evaluations of so-called Touchard (Bell) polynomials. The supports in the presence of sampling artifacts are calculated using discretized semi-infite programming methods. The estimation approach is tested on synthetic and textual data, as well as on GISAID data collected to address a new problem in computational biology: mutational support estimation in genes of the SARS-Cov-2 virus. In the later setting, the Poisson channel captures the fact that many individuals are tested multiple times for the presence of viral RNA, thereby leading to repeated samples, while other individual's results are not recorded due to test errors. For all experiments performed, we observed significant improvements of our integrated methods compared to those obtained through adequate modifications of state-of-the-art noiseless support estimation methods. Our code will be released upon acceptance.


Fairness Under Feature Exemptions: Counterfactual and Observational Measures

arXiv.org Machine Learning

With the growing use of AI in highly consequential domains, the quantification and removal of bias with respect to protected attributes, such as gender, race, etc., is becoming increasingly important. While quantifying bias is essential, sometimes the needs of a business (e.g., hiring) may require the use of certain features that are critical in a way that any bias that can be explained by them might need to be exempted. E.g., a standardized test-score may be a critical feature that should be weighed strongly in hiring even if biased, whereas other features, such as zip code may be used only to the extent that they do not discriminate. In this work, we propose a novel information-theoretic decomposition of the total bias (in a counterfactual sense) into a non-exempt component that quantifies the part of the bias that cannot be accounted for by the critical features, and an exempt component which quantifies the remaining bias. This decomposition allows one to check if the bias arose purely due to the critical features (inspired from the business necessity defense of disparate impact law) and also enables selective removal of the non-exempt component if desired. We arrive at this decomposition through examples that lead to a set of desirable properties (axioms) that any measure of non-exempt bias should satisfy. We demonstrate that our proposed counterfactual measure satisfies all of them. Our quantification bridges ideas of causality, Simpson's paradox, and a body of work from information theory called Partial Information Decomposition. We also obtain an impossibility result showing that no observational measure of non-exempt bias can satisfy all of the desirable properties, which leads us to relax our goals and examine observational measures that satisfy only some of these properties. We then perform case studies to show how one can train models while reducing non-exempt bias.


Loss Rate Forecasting Framework Based on Macroeconomic Changes: Application to US Credit Card Industry

arXiv.org Machine Learning

A major part of the balance sheets of the largest US banks consists of credit card portfolios. Hence, managing the charge-off rates is a vital task for the profitability of the credit card industry. Different macroeconomic conditions affect individuals' behavior in paying down their debts. In this paper, we propose an expert system for loss forecasting in the credit card industry using macroeconomic indicators. We select the indicators based on a thorough review of the literature and experts' opinions covering all aspects of the economy, consumer, business, and government sectors. The state of the art machine learning models are used to develop the proposed expert system framework. We develop two versions of the forecasting expert system, which utilize different approaches to select between the lags added to each indicator. Among 19 macroeconomic indicators that were used as the input, six were used in the model with optimal lags, and seven indicators were selected by the model using all lags. The features that were selected by each of these models covered all three sectors of the economy. Using the charge-off data for the top 100 US banks ranked by assets from the first quarter of 1985 to the second quarter of 2019, we achieve mean squared error values of 1.15E-03 and 1.04E-03 using the model with optimal lags and the model with all lags, respectively. The proposed expert system gives a holistic view of the economy to the practitioners in the credit card industry and helps them to see the impact of different macroeconomic conditions on their future loss.


ResOT: Resource-Efficient Oblique Trees for Neural Signal Classification

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Classifiers that can be implemented on chip with minimal computational and memory resources are essential for edge computing in emerging applications such as medical and IoT devices. This paper introduces a machine learning model based on oblique decision trees to enable resource-efficient classification on a neural implant. By integrating model compression with probabilistic routing and implementing cost-aware learning, our proposed model could significantly reduce the memory and hardware cost compared to state-of-the-art models, while maintaining the classification accuracy. We trained the resource-efficient oblique tree with power-efficient regularization (ResOT-PE) on three neural classification tasks to evaluate the performance, memory, and hardware requirements. On seizure detection task, we were able to reduce the model size by 3.4X and the feature extraction cost by 14.6X compared to the ensemble of boosted trees, using the intracranial EEG from 10 epilepsy patients. In a second experiment, we tested the ResOT-PE model on tremor detection for Parkinson's disease, using the local field potentials from 12 patients implanted with a deep-brain stimulation (DBS) device. We achieved a comparable classification performance as the state-of-the-art boosted tree ensemble, while reducing the model size and feature extraction cost by 10.6X and 6.8X, respectively. We also tested on a 6-class finger movement detection task using ECoG recordings from 9 subjects, reducing the model size by 17.6X and feature computation cost by 5.1X. The proposed model can enable a low-power and memory-efficient implementation of classifiers for real-time neurological disease detection and motor decoding.


Exploiting Higher Order Smoothness in Derivative-free Optimization and Continuous Bandits

arXiv.org Machine Learning

We study the problem of zero-order optimization of a strongly convex function. The goal is to find the minimizer of the function by a sequential exploration of its values, under measurement noise. We study the impact of higher order smoothness properties of the function on the optimization error and on the cumulative regret. To solve this problem we consider a randomized approximation of the projected gradient descent algorithm. The gradient is estimated by a randomized procedure involving two function evaluations and a smoothing kernel. We derive upper bounds for this algorithm both in the constrained and unconstrained settings and prove minimax lower bounds for any sequential search method. Our results imply that the zero-order algorithm is nearly optimal in terms of sample complexity and the problem parameters. Based on this algorithm, we also propose an estimator of the minimum value of the function achieving almost sharp oracle behavior. We compare our results with the state-of-the-art, highlighting a number of key improvements.


Parts-dependent Label Noise: Towards Instance-dependent Label Noise

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Learning with the \textit{instance-dependent} label noise is challenging, because it is hard to model such real-world noise. Note that there are psychological and physiological evidences showing that we humans perceive instances by decomposing them into parts. Annotators are therefore more likely to annotate instances based on the parts rather than the whole instances. Motivated by this human cognition, in this paper, we approximate the instance-dependent label noise by exploiting \textit{parts-dependent} label noise. Specifically, since instances can be approximately reconstructed by a combination of parts, we approximate the instance-dependent \textit{transition matrix} for an instance by a combination of the transition matrices for the parts of the instance. The transition matrices for parts can be learned by exploiting anchor points (i.e., data points that belong to a specific class almost surely). Empirical evaluations on synthetic and real-world datasets demonstrate our method is superior to the state-of-the-art approaches for learning from the instance-dependent label noise.


A Baseline for Shapley Values in MLPs: from Missingness to Neutrality

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Being able to explain a prediction as well as having a model that performs well are paramount in many machine learning applications. Deep neural networks have gained momentum recently on the basis of their accuracy, however these are often criticised to be black-boxes. Many authors have focused on proposing methods to explain their predictions. Among these explainability methods, feature attribution methods have been favoured for their strong theoretical foundation: the Shapley value. A limitation of Shapley value is the need to define a baseline (aka reference point) representing the missingness of a feature. In this paper, we present a method to choose a baseline based on a neutrality value: a parameter defined by decision makers at which their choices are determined by the returned value of the model being either below or above it. Based on this concept, we theoretically justify these neutral baselines and find a way to identify them for MLPs. Then, we experimentally demonstrate that for a binary classification task, using a synthetic dataset and a dataset coming from the financial domain, the proposed baselines outperform, in terms of local explanability power, standard ways of choosing them.


Model Linkage Selection for Cooperative Learning

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Rapid developments in data collecting devices and computation platforms produce an emerging number of learners and data modalities in many scientific domains. We consider the setting in which each learner holds a pair of parametric statistical model and a specific data source, with the goal of integrating information across a set of learners to enhance the prediction accuracy of a specific learner. One natural way to integrate information is to build a joint model across a set of learners that shares common parameters of interest. However, the parameter sharing patterns across a set of learners are not known a priori. Misspecifying the parameter sharing patterns and the parametric statistical model for each learner yields a biased estimator and degrades the prediction accuracy of the joint model. In this paper, we propose a novel framework for integrating information across a set of learners that is robust against model misspecification and misspecified parameter sharing patterns. The main crux is to sequentially incorporates additional learners that can enhance the prediction accuracy of an existing joint model based on a user-specified parameter sharing patterns across a set of learners, starting from a model with one learner. Theoretically, we show that the proposed method can data-adaptively select the correct parameter sharing patterns based on a user-specified parameter sharing patterns, and thus enhances the prediction accuracy of a learner. Extensive numerical studies are performed to evaluate the performance of the proposed method.