We consider the problem of learning a sparse graph under Laplacian constrained Gaussian graphical models. This problem can be formulated as a penalized maximum likelihood estimation of the precision matrix under Laplacian structural constraints. Like in the classical graphical lasso problem, recent works made use of the $\ell_1$-norm regularization with the goal of promoting sparsity in Laplacian structural precision matrix estimation. However, we find that the widely used $\ell_1$-norm is not effective in imposing a sparse solution in this problem. Through empirical evidence, we observe that the number of nonzero graph weights grows with the increase of the regularization parameter. From a theoretical perspective, we prove that a large regularization parameter will surprisingly lead to a fully connected graph. To address this issue, we propose a nonconvex estimation method by solving a sequence of weighted $\ell_1$-norm penalized sub-problems and prove that the statistical error of the proposed estimator matches the minimax lower bound. To solve each sub-problem, we develop a projected gradient descent algorithm that enjoys a linear convergence rate. Numerical experiments involving synthetic and real-world data sets from the recent COVID-19 pandemic and financial stock markets demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method. An open source $\mathsf{R}$ package containing the code for all the experiments is available at https://github.com/mirca/sparseGraph.

It has long been argued that minibatch stochastic gradient descent can generalize better than large batch gradient descent in deep neural networks. However recent papers have questioned this claim, arguing that this effect is simply a consequence of suboptimal hyperparameter tuning or insufficient compute budgets when the batch size is large. In this paper, we perform carefully designed experiments and rigorous hyperparameter sweeps on a range of popular models, which verify that small or moderately large batch sizes can substantially outperform very large batches on the test set. This occurs even when both models are trained for the same number of iterations and large batches achieve smaller training losses. Our results confirm that the noise in stochastic gradients can enhance generalization. We study how the optimal learning rate schedule changes as the epoch budget grows, and we provide a theoretical account of our observations based on the stochastic differential equation perspective of SGD dynamics.

A method for counterfactual explanation of machine learning survival models is proposed. One of the difficulties of solving the counterfactual explanation problem is that the classes of examples are implicitly defined through outcomes of a machine learning survival model in the form of survival functions. A condition that establishes the difference between survival functions of the original example and the counterfactual is introduced. This condition is based on using a distance between mean times to event. It is shown that the counterfactual explanation problem can be reduced to a standard convex optimization problem with linear constraints when the explained black-box model is the Cox model. For other black-box models, it is proposed to apply the well-known Particle Swarm Optimization algorithm. A lot of numerical experiments with real and synthetic data demonstrate the proposed method.

We describe a new library named picasso, which implements a unified framework of pathwise coordinate optimization for a variety of sparse learning problems (e.g., sparse linear regression, sparse logistic regression, sparse Poisson regression and scaled sparse linear regression) combined with efficient active set selection strategies. Besides, the library allows users to choose different sparsity-inducing regularizers, including the convex $\ell_1$, nonconvex MCP and SCAD regularizers. The library is coded in C++ and has user-friendly R and Python wrappers. Numerical experiments demonstrate that picasso can scale up to large problems efficiently.

Machine learning methods applied to complex biomedical data has enabled the construction of disease signatures of diagnostic/prognostic value. However, less attention has been given to understanding disease heterogeneity. Semi-supervised clustering methods can address this problem by estimating multiple transformations from a (e.g. healthy) control (CN) group to a patient (PT) group, seeking to capture the heterogeneity of underlying pathlogic processes. Herein, we propose a novel method, Smile-GANs (SeMi-supervIsed cLustEring via GANs), for semi-supervised clustering, and apply it to brain MRI scans. Smile-GANs first learns multiple distinct mappings by generating PT from CN, with each mapping characterizing one relatively distinct pathological pattern. Moreover, a clustering model is trained interactively with mapping functions to assign PT into corresponding subtype memberships. Using relaxed assumptions on PT/CN data distribution and imposing mapping non-linearity, Smile-GANs captures heterogeneous differences in distribution between the CN and PT domains. We first validate Smile-GANs using simulated data, subsequently on real data, by demonstrating its potential in characterizing heterogeneity in Alzheimer's Disease (AD) and its prodromal phases. The model was first trained using baseline MRIs from the ADNI2 database and then applied to longitudinal data from ADNI1 and BLSA. Four robust subtypes with distinct neuroanatomical patterns were discovered: 1) normal brain, 2) diffuse atrophy atypical of AD, 3) focal medial temporal lobe atrophy, 4) typical-AD. Further longitudinal analyses discover two distinct progressive pathways from prodromal to full AD: i) subtypes 1 - 2 - 4, and ii) subtypes 1 - 3 - 4. Although demonstrated on an important biomedical problem, Smile-GANs is general and can find application in many biomedical and other domains.

Our goal is to enable machine learning systems to be trained interactively. This requires models that perform well and train quickly, without large amounts of hand-labeled data. We take a step forward in this direction by borrowing from weak supervision (WS), wherein models can be trained with noisy sources of signal instead of hand-labeled data. But WS relies on training downstream deep networks to extrapolate to unseen data points, which can take hours or days. Pre-trained embeddings can remove this requirement. We do not use the embeddings as features as in transfer learning (TL), which requires fine-tuning for high performance, but instead use them to define a distance function on the data and extend WS source votes to nearby points. Theoretically, we provide a series of results studying how performance scales with changes in source coverage, source accuracy, and the Lipschitzness of label distributions in the embedding space, and compare this rate to standard WS without extension and TL without fine-tuning. On six benchmark NLP and video tasks, our method outperforms WS without extension by 4.1 points, TL without fine-tuning by 12.8 points, and traditionally-supervised deep networks by 13.1 points, and comes within 0.7 points of state-of-the-art weakly-supervised deep networks--all while training in less than half a second.

Recent development in the data-driven decision science has seen great advances in individualized decision making. Given data with individual covariates, treatment assignments and outcomes, policy makers best individualized treatment rule (ITR) that maximizes the expected outcome, known as the value function. Many existing methods assume that the training and testing distributions are the same. However, the estimated optimal ITR may have poor generalizability when the training and testing distributions are not identical. In this paper, we consider the problem of finding an optimal ITR from a restricted ITR class where there is some unknown covariate changes between the training and testing distributions. We propose a novel distributionally robust ITR (DR-ITR) framework that maximizes the worst-case value function across the values under a set of underlying distributions that are "close" to the training distribution. The resulting DR-ITR can guarantee the performance among all such distributions reasonably well. We further propose a calibrating procedure that tunes the DR-ITR adaptively to a small amount of calibration data from a target population. In this way, the calibrated DR-ITR can be shown to enjoy better generalizability than the standard ITR based on our numerical studies.

Motivated by a wide variety of applications, ranging from stochastic optimization to dimension reduction through variable selection, the problem of estimating gradients accurately is of crucial importance in statistics and learning theory. We consider here the classic regression setup, where a real valued square integrable r.v. Y is to be predicted upon observing a (possibly high dimensional) random vector X by means of a predictive function f(X) as accurately as possible in the mean-squared sense and study a nearest-neighbour-based pointwise estimate of the gradient of the optimal predictive function, the regression function m(x) E[Y X x]. Under classic smoothness conditions combined with the assumption that the tails of Y m(X) are sub-Gaussian, we prove nonasymptotic bounds improving upon those obtained for alternative estimation methods. Beyond the novel theoretical results established, several illustrative numerical experiments have been carried out. The latter provide strong empirical evidence that the estimation method proposed works very well for various statistical problems involving gradient estimation, namely dimensionality reduction, stochastic gradient descent optimization and quantifying disentanglement.

The Metropolis algorithm is arguably the most fundamental Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method. But the algorithm is not guaranteed to converge to the desired distribution in the case of multivariate binary distributions (e.g., Ising models or stochastic neural networks such as Boltzmann machines) if the variables (sites or neurons) are updated in a fixed order, a setting commonly used in practice. The reason is that the corresponding Markov chain may not be irreducible. We propose a modified Metropolis transition operator that behaves almost always identically to the standard Metropolis operator and prove that it ensures irreducibility and convergence to the limiting distribution in the multivariate binary case with fixed-order updates. The result provides an explanation for the behaviour of Metropolis MCMC in that setting and closes a long-standing theoretical gap. We experimentally studied the standard and modified Metropolis operator for models were they actually behave differently. If the standard algorithm also converges, the modified operator exhibits similar (if not better) performance in terms of convergence speed.

We present a Bayesian non-parametric way of inferring stochastic differential equations for both regression tasks and continuous-time dynamical modelling. The work has high emphasis on the stochastic part of the differential equation, also known as the diffusion, and modelling it by means of Wishart processes. Further, we present a semi-parametric approach that allows the framework to scale to high dimensions. This successfully lead us onto how to model both latent and auto-regressive temporal systems with conditional heteroskedastic noise. We provide experimental evidence that modelling diffusion often improves performance and that this randomness in the differential equation can be essential to avoid overfitting.