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 Statistical Learning


Modeling and Uncertainty Analysis of Groundwater Level Using Six Evolutionary Optimization Algorithms Hybridized with ANFIS, SVM, and ANN

arXiv.org Machine Learning

In the present study, six meta-heuristic schemes are hybridized with artificial neural network (ANN), adaptive neuro-fuzzy interface system (ANFIS), and support vector machine (SVM), to predict monthly groundwater level (GWL), evaluate uncertainty analysis of predictions and spatial variation analysis. The six schemes, including grasshopper optimization algorithm (GOA), cat swarm optimization (CSO), weed algorithm (WA), genetic algorithm (GA), krill algorithm (KA), and particle swarm optimization (PSO), were used to hybridize for improving the performance of ANN, SVM, and ANFIS models. Groundwater level (GWL) data of Ardebil plain (Iran) for a period of 144 months were selected to evaluate the hybrid models. The pre-processing technique of principal component analysis (PCA) was applied to reduce input combinations from monthly time series up to 12-month prediction intervals. The results showed that the ANFIS-GOA was superior to the other hybrid models for predicting GWL in the first piezometer and third piezometer in the testing stage. The performance of hybrid models with optimization algorithms was far better than that of classical ANN, ANFIS, and SVM models without hybridization. The percent of improvements in the ANFIS-GOA versus standalone ANFIS in piezometer 10 were 14.4%, 3%, 17.8%, and 181% for RMSE, MAE, NSE, and PBIAS in the training stage and 40.7%, 55%, 25%, and 132% in testing stage, respectively. The improvements for piezometer 6 in train step were 15%, 4%, 13%, and 208% and in the test step were 33%, 44.6%, 16.3%, and 173%, respectively, that clearly confirm the superiority of developed hybridization schemes in GWL modeling. Uncertainty analysis showed that ANFIS-GOA and SVM had, respectively, the best and worst performances among other models. In general, GOA enhanced the accuracy of the ANFIS, ANN, and SVM models.


Lipschitzness Is All You Need To Tame Off-policy Generative Adversarial Imitation Learning

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Despite the recent success of reinforcement learning in various domains, these approaches remain, for the most part, deterringly sensitive to hyper-parameters and are often riddled with essential engineering feats allowing their success. We consider the case of off-policy generative adversarial imitation learning, and perform an in-depth review, qualitative and quantitative, of the method. Crucially, we show that forcing the learned reward function to be local Lipschitz-continuous is a sine qua non condition for the method to perform well. We then study the effects of this necessary condition and provide several theoretical results involving the local Lipschitzness of the state-value function. Finally, we propose a novel reward-modulation technique inspired from a new interpretation of gradient-penalty regularization in reinforcement learning. Besides being extremely easy to implement and bringing little to no overhead, we show that our method provides improvements in several continuous control environments of the MuJoCo suite.


VPNet: Variable Projection Networks

arXiv.org Machine Learning

In this paper, we introduce VPNet, a novel model-driven neural network architecture based on variable projections (VP). The application of VP operators in neural networks implies learnable features, interpretable parameters, and compact network structures. This paper discusses the motivation and mathematical background of VPNet as well as experiments. The concept was evaluated in the context of signal processing. We performed classification tasks on a synthetic dataset, and real electrocardiogram (ECG) signals. Compared to fully-connected and 1D convolutional networks, VPNet features fast learning ability and good accuracy at a low computational cost in both of the training and inference. Based on the promising results and mentioned advantages, we expect broader impact in signal processing, including classification, regression, and even clustering problems.


Sampler Design for Implicit Feedback Data by Noisy-label Robust Learning

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Implicit feedback data is extensively explored in recommendation as it is easy to collect and generally applicable. However, predicting users' preference on implicit feedback data is a challenging task since we can only observe positive (voted) samples and unvoted samples. It is difficult to distinguish between the negative samples and unlabeled positive samples from the unvoted ones. Existing works, such as Bayesian Personalized Ranking (BPR), sample unvoted items as negative samples uniformly, therefore suffer from a critical noisy-label issue. To address this gap, we design an adaptive sampler based on noisy-label robust learning for implicit feedback data. To formulate the issue, we first introduce Bayesian Point-wise Optimization (BPO) to learn a model, e.g., Matrix Factorization (MF), by maximum likelihood estimation. We predict users' preferences with the model and learn it by maximizing likelihood of observed data labels, i.e., a user prefers her positive samples and has no interests in her unvoted samples. However, in reality, a user may have interests in some of her unvoted samples, which are indeed positive samples mislabeled as negative ones. We then consider the risk of these noisy labels, and propose a Noisy-label Robust BPO (NBPO). NBPO also maximizes the observation likelihood while connects users' preference and observed labels by the likelihood of label flipping based on the Bayes' theorem. In NBPO, a user prefers her true positive samples and shows no interests in her true negative samples, hence the optimization quality is dramatically improved. Extensive experiments on two public real-world datasets show the significant improvement of our proposed optimization methods.


K-Nearest Neighbour and Support Vector Machine Hybrid Classification

arXiv.org Machine Learning

In this paper, a novel K-Nearest Neighbour and Support Vector Machine hybrid classification technique has been proposed that is simple and robust. It is based on the concept of discriminative nearest neighbourhood classification. The technique consists of using K-Nearest Neighbour Classification for test samples satisfying a proximity condition. The patterns which do not pass the proximity condition are separated. This is followed by sifting the training set for a fixed number of patterns for every class which are closest to each separated test pattern respectively, based on the Euclidean distance metric. Subsequently, for every separated test sample, a Support Vector Machine is trained on the sifted training set patterns associated with it, and classification for the test sample is done. The proposed technique has been compared to the state of art in this research area. Three datasets viz. the United States Postal Service (USPS) Handwritten Digit Dataset, MNIST Dataset, and an Arabic numeral dataset, the Modified Arabic Digits Database, MADB, have been used to evaluate the performance of the algorithm. The algorithm generally outperforms the other algorithms with which it has been compared.


Probabilistic Classification Vector Machine for Multi-Class Classification

arXiv.org Machine Learning

The probabilistic classification vector machine (PCVM) synthesizes the advantages of both the support vector machine and the relevant vector machine, delivering a sparse Bayesian solution to classification problems. However, the PCVM is currently only applicable to binary cases. Extending the PCVM to multi-class cases via heuristic voting strategies such as one-vs-rest or one-vs-one often results in a dilemma where classifiers make contradictory predictions, and those strategies might lose the benefits of probabilistic outputs. To overcome this problem, we extend the PCVM and propose a multi-class probabilistic classification vector machine (mPCVM). Two learning algorithms, i.e., one top-down algorithm and one bottom-up algorithm, have been implemented in the mPCVM. The top-down algorithm obtains the maximum a posteriori (MAP) point estimates of the parameters based on an expectation-maximization algorithm, and the bottom-up algorithm is an incremental paradigm by maximizing the marginal likelihood. The superior performance of the mPCVMs, especially when the investigated problem has a large number of classes, is extensively evaluated on synthetic and benchmark data sets.


Statistical Foundation of Variational Bayes Neural Networks

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Despite the popularism of Bayesian neural networks in recent years, its use is somewhat limited in complex and big data situations due to the computational cost associated with full posterior evaluations. Variational Bayes (VB) provides a useful alternative to circumvent the computational cost and time complexity associated with the generation of samples from the true posterior using Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) techniques. The efficacy of the VB methods is well established in machine learning literature. However, its potential broader impact is hindered due to a lack of theoretical validity from a statistical perspective. However there are few results which revolve around the theoretical properties of VB, especially in non-parametric problems. In this paper, we establish the fundamental result of posterior consistency for the mean-field variational posterior (VP) for a feed-forward artificial neural network model. The paper underlines the conditions needed to guarantee that the VP concentrates around Hellinger neighborhoods of the true density function. Additionally, the role of the scale parameter and its influence on the convergence rates has also been discussed. The paper mainly relies on two results (1) the rate at which the true posterior grows (2) the rate at which the KL-distance between the posterior and variational posterior grows. The theory provides a guideline of building prior distributions for Bayesian NN models along with an assessment of accuracy of the corresponding VB implementation.


Roweisposes, Including Eigenposes, Supervised Eigenposes, and Fisherposes, for 3D Action Recognition

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Human action recognition is one of the important fields of computer vision and machine learning. Although various methods have been proposed for 3D action recognition, some of which are basic and some use deep learning, the need of basic methods based on generalized eigenvalue problem is sensed for action recognition. This need is especially sensed because of having similar basic methods in the field of face recognition such as eigenfaces and Fisherfaces. In this paper, we propose Roweisposes which uses Roweis discriminant analysis for generalized subspace learning. This method includes Fisherposes, eigenposes, supervised eigenposes, and double supervised eigenposes as its special cases. Roweisposes is a family of infinite number of action recongition methods which learn a discriminative subspace for embedding the body poses. Experiments on the TST, UTKinect, and UCFKinect datasets verify the effectiveness of the proposed method for action recognition.


Modeling Generalization in Machine Learning: A Methodological and Computational Study

arXiv.org Machine Learning

As machine learning becomes more and more available to the general public, theoretical questions are turning into pressing practical issues. Possibly, one of the most relevant concerns is the assessment of our confidence in trusting machine learning predictions. In many real-world cases, it is of utmost importance to estimate the capabilities of a machine learning algorithm to generalize, i.e., to provide accurate predictions on unseen data, depending on the characteristics of the target problem. In this work, we perform a meta-analysis of 109 publicly-available classification data sets, modeling machine learning generalization as a function of a variety of data set characteristics, ranging from number of samples to intrinsic dimensionality, from class-wise feature skewness to $F1$ evaluated on test samples falling outside the convex hull of the training set. Experimental results demonstrate the relevance of using the concept of the convex hull of the training data in assessing machine learning generalization, by emphasizing the difference between interpolated and extrapolated predictions. Besides several predictable correlations, we observe unexpectedly weak associations between the generalization ability of machine learning models and all metrics related to dimensionality, thus challenging the common assumption that the \textit{curse of dimensionality} might impair generalization in machine learning.


Breathing $k$-Means

arXiv.org Machine Learning

We propose a new algorithm for the $k$-means problem which repeatedly increases and decreases the number of centroids by $m$ in order to find an approximate solution. New centroids are inserted in areas where they will likely reduce the error. The subsequent removal of centroids is done such that the resulting raise in error is small. After each increase or decrease step standard $k$-means is performed. Termination is guaranteed by decrementing $m$ after each increase/decrease cycle unless the overall error was lowered. In experiments with Gaussian mixture distributions the new algorithm produced on average solutions several percent better than $k$-means++.