The COVID-19 pandemic has created unprecedented challenges worldwide. Strained healthcare providers make difficult decisions on patient triage, treatment and care management on a daily basis. Policy makers have imposed social distancing measures to slow the disease, at a steep economic price. We design analytical tools to support these decisions and combat the pandemic. Specifically, we propose a comprehensive data-driven approach to understand the clinical characteristics of COVID-19, predict its mortality, forecast its evolution, and ultimately alleviate its impact. By leveraging cohort-level clinical data, patient-level hospital data, and census-level epidemiological data, we develop an integrated four-step approach, combining descriptive, predictive and prescriptive analytics. First, we aggregate hundreds of clinical studies into the most comprehensive database on COVID-19 to paint a new macroscopic picture of the disease. Second, we build personalized calculators to predict the risk of infection and mortality as a function of demographics, symptoms, comorbidities, and lab values. Third, we develop a novel epidemiological model to project the pandemic's spread and inform social distancing policies. Fourth, we propose an optimization model to re-allocate ventilators and alleviate shortages. Our results have been used at the clinical level by several hospitals to triage patients, guide care management, plan ICU capacity, and re-distribute ventilators. At the policy level, they are currently supporting safe back-to-work policies at a major institution and equitable vaccine distribution planning at a major pharmaceutical company, and have been integrated into the US Center for Disease Control's pandemic forecast.

Given partially observed pairwise comparison data generated by the Bradley-Terry-Luce (BTL) model, we study the problem of top-$k$ ranking. That is, to optimally identify the set of top-$k$ players. We derive the minimax rate with respect to a normalized Hamming loss. This provides the first result in the literature that characterizes the partial recovery error in terms of the proportion of mistakes for top-$k$ ranking. We also derive the optimal signal to noise ratio condition for the exact recovery of the top-$k$ set. The maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) is shown to achieve both optimal partial recovery and optimal exact recovery. On the other hand, we show another popular algorithm, the spectral method, is in general sub-optimal. Our results complement the recent work by Chen et al. (2019) that shows both the MLE and the spectral method achieve the optimal sample complexity for exact recovery. It turns out the leading constants of the sample complexity are different for the two algorithms. Another contribution that may be of independent interest is the analysis of the MLE without any penalty or regularization for the BTL model. This closes an important gap between theory and practice in the literature of ranking.

Network embedding is a very important method for network data. However, most of the algorithms can only deal with static networks. In this paper, we propose an algorithm Recurrent Neural Network Embedding (RNNE) to deal with dynamic network, which can be typically divided into two categories: a) topologically evolving graphs whose nodes and edges will increase (decrease) over time; b) temporal graphs whose edges contain time information. In order to handle the changing size of dynamic networks, RNNE adds virtual node, which is not connected to any other nodes, to the networks and replaces it when new node arrives, so that the network size can be unified at different time. On the one hand, RNNE pays attention to the direct links between nodes and the similarity between the neighborhood structures of two nodes, trying to preserve the local and global network structure. On the other hand, RNNE reduces the influence of noise by transferring the previous embedding information. Therefore, RNNE can take into account both static and dynamic characteristics of the network.We evaluate RNNE on five networks and compare with several state-of-the-art algorithms. The results demonstrate that RNNE has advantages over other algorithms in reconstruction, classification and link predictions.

We consider the problem of factorizing a structured 3-way tensor into its constituent Canonical Polyadic (CP) factors. This decomposition, which can be viewed as a generalization of singular value decomposition (SVD) for tensors, reveals how the tensor dimensions (features) interact with each other. However, since the factors are a priori unknown, the corresponding optimization problems are inherently non-convex. The existing guaranteed algorithms which handle this non-convexity incur an irreducible error (bias), and only apply to cases where all factors have the same structure. To this end, we develop a provable algorithm for online structured tensor factorization, wherein one of the factors obeys some incoherence conditions, and the others are sparse. Specifically we show that, under some relatively mild conditions on initialization, rank, and sparsity, our algorithm recovers the factors exactly (up to scaling and permutation) at a linear rate. Complementary to our theoretical results, our synthetic and real-world data evaluations showcase superior performance compared to related techniques. Moreover, its scalability and ability to learn on-the-fly makes it suitable for real-world tasks.

Ordered Weighted $L_{1}$ (OWL) regularized regression is a new regression analysis for high-dimensional sparse learning. Proximal gradient methods are used as standard approaches to solve OWL regression. However, it is still a burning issue to solve OWL regression due to considerable computational cost and memory usage when the feature or sample size is large. In this paper, we propose the first safe screening rule for OWL regression by exploring the order of the primal solution with the unknown order structure via an iterative strategy, which overcomes the difficulties of tackling the non-separable regularizer. It effectively avoids the updates of the parameters whose coefficients must be zero during the learning process. More importantly, the proposed screening rule can be easily applied to standard and stochastic proximal gradient methods. Moreover, we prove that the algorithms with our screening rule are guaranteed to have identical results with the original algorithms. Experimental results on a variety of datasets show that our screening rule leads to a significant computational gain without any loss of accuracy, compared to existing competitive algorithms.

Adversarial robustness has become a fundamental requirement in modern machine learning applications. Yet, there has been surprisingly little statistical understanding so far. In this paper, we provide the first result of the optimal minimax guarantees for the excess risk for adversarially robust classification, under Gaussian mixture model proposed by \cite{schmidt2018adversarially}. The results are stated in terms of the Adversarial Signal-to-Noise Ratio (AdvSNR), which generalizes a similar notion for standard linear classification to the adversarial setting. For the Gaussian mixtures with AdvSNR value of $r$, we establish an excess risk lower bound of order $\Theta(e^{-(\frac{1}{8}+o(1)) r^2} \frac{d}{n})$ and design a computationally efficient estimator that achieves this optimal rate. Our results built upon minimal set of assumptions while cover a wide spectrum of adversarial perturbations including $\ell_p$ balls for any $p \ge 1$.

We report about the application of state-of-the-art deep learning techniques to the automatic and interpretable assignment of ICD-O3 topography and morphology codes to free-text cancer reports. We present results on a large dataset (more than 80 000 labeled and 1 500 000 unlabeled anonymized reports written in Italian and collected from hospitals in Tuscany over more than a decade) and with a large number of classes (134 morphological classes and 61 topographical classes). We compare alternative architectures in terms of prediction accuracy and interpretability and show that our best model achieves a multiclass accuracy of 90.3% on topography site assignment and 84.8% on morphology type assignment. We found that in this context hierarchical models are not better than flat models and that an element-wise maximum aggregator is slightly better than attentive models on site classification. Moreover, the maximum aggregator offers a way to interpret the classification process.

Tucker decomposition is a popular technique for many data analysis and machine learning applications. Finding a Tucker decomposition is a nonconvex optimization problem. As the scale of the problems increases, local search algorithms such as stochastic gradient descent have become popular in practice. In this paper, we characterize the optimization landscape of the Tucker decomposition problem. In particular, we show that if the tensor has an exact Tucker decomposition, for a standard nonconvex objective of Tucker decomposition, all local minima are also globally optimal. We also give a local search algorithm that can find an approximate local (and global) optimal solution in polynomial time.

In this paper we propose a variant of the linear least squares model allowing practitioners to partition the input features into groups of variables that they require to contribute similarly to the final result. The output allows practitioners to assess the importance of each group and of each variable in the group. We formally show that the new formulation is not convex and provide two alternative methods to deal with the problem: one non-exact method based on an alternating least squares approach; and one exact method based on a reformulation of the problem using an exponential number of sub-problems whose minimum is guaranteed to be the optimal solution. We formally show the correctness of the exact method and also compare the two solutions showing that the exact solution provides better results in a fraction of the time required by the alternating least squares solution (assuming that the number of partitions is small). For the sake of completeness, we also provide an alternative branch and bound algorithm that can be used in place of the exact method when the number of partitions is too large, and a proof of NP-completeness of the optimization problem introduced in this paper.

We study the fundamental problems of agnostically learning halfspaces and ReLUs under Gaussian marginals. In the former problem, given labeled examples $(\mathbf{x}, y)$ from an unknown distribution on $\mathbb{R}^d \times \{ \pm 1\}$, whose marginal distribution on $\mathbf{x}$ is the standard Gaussian and the labels $y$ can be arbitrary, the goal is to output a hypothesis with 0-1 loss $\mathrm{OPT}+\epsilon$, where $\mathrm{OPT}$ is the 0-1 loss of the best-fitting halfspace. In the latter problem, given labeled examples $(\mathbf{x}, y)$ from an unknown distribution on $\mathbb{R}^d \times \mathbb{R}$, whose marginal distribution on $\mathbf{x}$ is the standard Gaussian and the labels $y$ can be arbitrary, the goal is to output a hypothesis with square loss $\mathrm{OPT}+\epsilon$, where $\mathrm{OPT}$ is the square loss of the best-fitting ReLU. We prove Statistical Query (SQ) lower bounds of $d^{\mathrm{poly}(1/\epsilon)}$ for both of these problems. Our SQ lower bounds provide strong evidence that current upper bounds for these tasks are essentially best possible.