Statistical Learning
Evaluating and Validating Cluster Results
Vysala, Anupriya, Gomes, Dr. Joseph
Clustering is the technique to partition data according to their characteristics. Data that are similar in nature belong to the same cluster [1]. There are two types of evaluation methods to evaluate clustering quality. One is an external evaluation where the truth labels in the data sets are known in advance and the other is internal evaluation in which the evaluation is done with data set itself without true labels. In this paper, both external evaluation and internal evaluation are performed on the cluster results of the IRIS dataset. In the case of external evaluation Homogeneity, Correctness and V-measure scores are calculated for the dataset. For internal performance measures, the Silhouette Index and Sum of Square Errors are used. These internal performance measures along with the dendrogram (graphical tool from hierarchical Clustering) are used first to validate the number of clusters. Finally, as a statistical tool, we used the frequency distribution method to compare and provide a visual representation of the distribution of observations within a clustering result and the original data.
GraphCL: Contrastive Self-Supervised Learning of Graph Representations
Hafidi, Hakim, Ghogho, Mounir, Ciblat, Philippe, Swami, Ananthram
We propose Graph Contrastive Learning (GraphCL), a general framework for learning node representations in a self supervised manner. GraphCL learns node embeddings by maximizing the similarity between the representations of two randomly perturbed versions of the intrinsic features and link structure of the same node's local subgraph. We use graph neural networks to produce two representations of the same node and leverage a contrastive learning loss to maximize agreement between them. In both transductive and inductive learning setups, we demonstrate that our approach significantly outperforms the state-of-the-art in unsupervised learning on a number of node classification benchmarks.
Differential Replication in Machine Learning
Unceta, Irene, Nin, Jordi, Pujol, Oriol
When deployed in the wild, machine learning models are usually confronted with data and requirements that constantly vary, either because of changes in the generating distribution or because external constraints change the environment where the model operates. To survive in such an ecosystem, machine learning models need to adapt to new conditions by evolving over time. The idea of model adaptability has been studied from different perspectives. In this paper, we propose a solution based on reusing the knowledge acquired by the already deployed machine learning models and leveraging it to train future generations. This is the idea behind differential replication of machine learning models. "If during the long course of ages and under varying conditions of life, organic beings vary at all in the several parts of their organization, [...] I think it would be a most extraordinary fact if no variation ever had occurred useful to each being's own welfare, in the same way as so many variations have occurred useful to man. But if variations useful to any organic being do occur, assuredly individuals thus characterized will have the best chance of being preserved in the struggle for life; and from the strong principle of inheritance they will tend to produce offspring similarly characterized. This principle of preservation, I have called, for the sake of brevity, Natural Selection."
Quantifying and Reducing Bias in Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Structured Anomalies
Chitra, Uthsav, Ding, Kimberly, Raphael, Benjamin J.
Anomaly estimation, or the problem of finding a subset of a dataset that differs from the rest of the dataset, is a classic problem in machine learning and data mining. In both theoretical work and in applications, the anomaly is assumed to have a specific structure defined by membership in an $\textit{anomaly family}$. For example, in temporal data the anomaly family may be time intervals, while in network data the anomaly family may be connected subgraphs. The most prominent approach for anomaly estimation is to compute the Maximum Likelihood Estimator (MLE) of the anomaly. However, it was recently observed that for some anomaly families, the MLE is an asymptotically $\textit{biased}$ estimator of the anomaly. Here, we demonstrate that the bias of the MLE depends on the size of the anomaly family. We prove that if the number of sets in the anomaly family that contain the anomaly is sub-exponential, then the MLE is asymptotically unbiased. At the same time, we provide empirical evidence that the converse is also true: if the number of such sets is exponential, then the MLE is asymptotically biased. Our analysis unifies a number of earlier results on the bias of the MLE for specific anomaly families, including intervals, submatrices, and connected subgraphs. Next, we derive a new anomaly estimator using a mixture model, and we empirically demonstrate that our estimator is asymptotically unbiased regardless of the size of the anomaly family. We illustrate the benefits of our estimator on both simulated disease outbreak data and a real-world highway traffic dataset.
Neural Topic Models with Survival Supervision: Jointly Predicting Time-to-Event Outcomes and Learning How Clinical Features Relate
Li, Linhong, Zuo, Ren, Coston, Amanda, Weiss, Jeremy C., Chen, George H.
In time-to-event prediction problems, a standard approach to estimating an interpretable model is to use Cox proportional hazards, where features are selected based on lasso regularization or stepwise regression. However, these Cox-based models do not learn how different features relate. As an alternative, we present an interpretable neural network approach to jointly learn a survival model to predict time-to-event outcomes while simultaneously learning how features relate in terms of a topic model. In particular, we model each subject as a distribution over "topics", which are learned from clinical features as to help predict a time-to-event outcome. From a technical standpoint, we extend existing neural topic modeling approaches to also minimize a survival analysis loss function. We study the effectiveness of this approach on seven healthcare datasets on predicting time until death as well as hospital ICU length of stay, where we find that neural survival-supervised topic models achieves competitive accuracy with existing approaches while yielding interpretable clinical "topics" that explain feature relationships.
Deep Representation Learning and Clustering of Traffic Scenarios
Harmening, Nick, Biloลก, Marin, Gรผnnemann, Stephan
Determining the traffic scenario space is a major challenge for the homologation and coverage assessment of automated driving functions. In contrast to current approaches that are mainly scenario-based and rely on expert knowledge, we introduce two data driven autoencoding models that learn a latent representation of traffic scenes. First is a CNN based spatio-temporal model that autoencodes a grid of traffic participants' positions. Secondly, we develop a pure temporal RNN based model that auto-encodes a sequence of sets. To handle the unordered set data, we had to incorporate the permutation invariance property. Finally, we show how the latent scenario embeddings can be used for clustering traffic scenarios and similarity retrieval.
Label Propagation with Augmented Anchors: A Simple Semi-Supervised Learning baseline for Unsupervised Domain Adaptation
Zhang, Yabin, Deng, Bin, Jia, Kui, Zhang, Lei
Motivated by the problem relatedness between unsupervised domain adaptation (UDA) and semi-supervised learning (SSL), many state-of-the-art UDA methods adopt SSL principles (e.g., the cluster assumption) as their learning ingredients. However, they tend to overlook the very domain-shift nature of UDA. In this work, we take a step further to study the proper extensions of SSL techniques for UDA. Taking the algorithm of label propagation (LP) as an example, we analyze the challenges of adopting LP to UDA and theoretically analyze the conditions of affinity graph/matrix construction in order to achieve better propagation of true labels to unlabeled instances. Our analysis suggests a new algorithm of Label Propagation with Augmented Anchors (A$^2$LP), which could potentially improve LP via generation of unlabeled virtual instances (i.e., the augmented anchors) with high-confidence label predictions. To make the proposed A$^2$LP useful for UDA, we propose empirical schemes to generate such virtual instances. The proposed schemes also tackle the domain-shift challenge of UDA by alternating between pseudo labeling via A$^2$LP and domain-invariant feature learning. Experiments show that such a simple SSL extension improves over representative UDA methods of domain-invariant feature learning, and could empower two state-of-the-art methods on benchmark UDA datasets. Our results show the value of further investigation on SSL techniques for UDA problems.
timeXplain -- A Framework for Explaining the Predictions of Time Series Classifiers
Mujkanovic, Felix, Doskoฤ, Vanja, Schirneck, Martin, Schรคfer, Patrick, Friedrich, Tobias
Modern time series classifiers display impressive predictive capabilities, yet their decision-making processes mostly remain black boxes to the user. At the same time, model-agnostic explainers, such as the recently proposed SHAP, promise to make the predictions of machine learning models interpretable, provided there are well-designed domain mappings. We bring both worlds together in our timeXplain framework, extending the reach of explainable artificial intelligence to time series classification and value prediction. We present novel domain mappings for the time and the frequency domain as well as series statistics and analyze their explicative power as well as their limits. We employ timeXplain in a large-scale experimental comparison of several state-of-the-art time series classifiers and discover similarities between seemingly distinct classification concepts such as residual neural networks and elastic ensembles.
Importance of Tuning Hyperparameters of Machine Learning Algorithms
Weerts, Hilde J. P., Mueller, Andreas C., Vanschoren, Joaquin
The performance of many machine learning algorithms depends on their hyperparameter settings. The goal of this study is to determine whether it is important to tune a hyperparameter or whether it can be safely set to a default value. We present a methodology to determine the importance of tuning a hyperparameter based on a non-inferiority test and tuning risk: the performance loss that is incurred when a hyperparameter is not tuned, but set to a default value. Because our methods require the notion of a default parameter, we present a simple procedure that can be used to determine reasonable default parameters. We apply our methods in a benchmark study using 59 datasets from OpenML. Our results show that leaving particular hyperparameters at their default value is non-inferior to tuning these hyperparameters. In some cases, leaving the hyperparameter at its default value even outperforms tuning it using a search procedure with a limited number of iterations.
Static analysis of executable files by machine learning methods
The paper describes how to detect malicious executable files based on static analysis of their binary content. The stages of pre-processing and cleaning data extracted from different areas of executable files are analyzed. Methods of encoding categorical attributes of executable files are considered, as are ways to reduce the feature field dimension and select characteristic features in order to effectively represent samples of binary executable files for further training classifiers. An ensemble training approach was applied in order to aggregate forecasts from each classifier, and an ensemble of classifiers of various feature groups of executable file attributes was created in order to subsequently develop a system for detecting malicious files in an uninsulated environment. Introduction In order to frustrate efforts to analyze malware and create signatures to identify viruses, the latest viruses are using polymorphism and metamorphism on an increasingly frequent basis. This means that the number of variations within malware families is constantly growing, which poses a serious problem for the developers of antivirus products. Approaches based on searching for signatures in files are no longer effective. They are being replaced by the dynamic analysis of malicious code in an isolated environment [1], as well as the use of various heuristic detection methods [2]. This paper proposes a method for detecting malicious portable executable (PE) files on Windows operating systems based on the static analysis of their binary contents. This operating system has been chosen due to it immense popularity, which inevitably results in a large number of malicious files being created specifically for this OS.