We establish a general upper bound for $K$-fold cross-validation ($K$-CV) errors that can be adapted to many $K$-CV-based estimators and learning algorithms. Based on Rademacher complexity of the model and the Orlicz-$\Psi_{\nu}$ norm of the error process, the CV error upper bound applies to both light-tail and heavy-tail error distributions. We also extend the CV error upper bound to $\beta$-mixing data using the technique of independent blocking. We provide a Python package (\texttt{CVbound}, \url{https://github.com/isaac2math}) for computing the CV error upper bound in $K$-CV-based algorithms. Using the lasso as an example, we demonstrate in simulations that the upper bounds are tight and stable across different parameter settings and random seeds. As well as accurately bounding the CV errors for the lasso, the minimizer of the new upper bounds can be used as a criterion for variable selection. Compared with the CV-error minimizer, simulations show that tuning the lasso penalty parameter according to the minimizer of the upper bound yields a more sparse and more stable model that retains all of the relevant variables.

Network alignment is useful for multiple applications that require increasingly large graphs to be processed. Existing research approaches this as an optimization problem or computes the similarity based on node representations. However, the process of aligning every pair of nodes between relatively large networks is time-consuming and resource-intensive. In this paper, we propose a framework, called G-CREWE (Graph CompREssion With Embedding) to solve the network alignment problem. G-CREWE uses node embeddings to align the networks on two levels of resolution, a fine resolution given by the original network and a coarse resolution given by a compressed version, to achieve an efficient and effective network alignment. The framework first extracts node features and learns the node embedding via a Graph Convolutional Network (GCN). Then, node embedding helps to guide the process of graph compression and finally improve the alignment performance. As part of G-CREWE, we also propose a new compression mechanism called MERGE (Minimum dEgRee neiGhbors comprEssion) to reduce the size of the input networks while preserving the consistency in their topological structure. Experiments on all real networks show that our method is more than twice as fast as the most competitive existing methods while maintaining high accuracy.

The exogeneity bias and instrument validation have always been critical topics in statistics, machine learning and biostatistics. In the era of big data, such issues typically come with dimensionality issue and, hence, require even more attention than ever. In this paper we ensemble two well-known tools from machine learning and biostatistics -- stable variable selection and random graph -- and apply them to estimating the house pricing mechanics and the follow-up socio-economic effect on the 2010 Sydney house data. The estimation is conducted on an over-200-gigabyte ultrahigh dimensional database consisting of local education data, GIS information, census data, house transaction and other socio-economic records. The technique ensemble carefully improves the variable selection sparisty, stability and robustness to high dimensionality, complicated causal structures and the consequent multicollinearity, which is ultimately helpful on the data-driven recovery of a sparse and intuitive causal structure. The new ensemble also reveals its efficiency and effectiveness on endogeneity detection, instrument validation, weak instruments pruning and selection of proper instruments. From the perspective of machine learning, the estimation result both aligns with and confirms the facts of Sydney house market, the classical economic theories and the previous findings of simultaneous equations modeling. Moreover, the estimation result is totally consistent with and supported by the classical econometric tool like two-stage least square regression and different instrument tests (the code can be found at https://github.com/isaac2math/solar_graph_learning).

We propose a new least-angle regression algorithm for variable selection in high-dimensional data, called \emph{subsample-ordered least-angle regression (solar)}. Solar relies on the average $L_0$ solution path computed across subsamples and largely alleviates several known high-dimensional issues with least-angle regression. Using examples based on directed acyclic graphs, we illustrate the advantages of solar in comparison to least-angle regression, forward regression and variable screening. Simulations demonstrate that, with a similar computation load, solar yields substantial improvements over two lasso solvers (least-angle regression for lasso and coordinate-descent) in terms of the sparsity (37-64\% reduction in the average number of selected variables), stability and accuracy of variable selection. Simulations also demonstrate that solar enhances the robustness of variable selection to different settings of the irrepresentable condition and to variations in the dependence structures assumed in regression analysis. We provide a Python package \texttt{solarpy} for the algorithm.

The learning rate (LR) is one of the most important hyper-parameters in stochastic gradient descent (SGD) for deep neural networks (DNNs) training and generalization. However, current hand-designed LR schedules need to manually pre-specify schedule as well as its extra hyper-parameters, which limits its ability to adapt non-convex optimization problems due to the significant variation of training dynamic. To address this issue, we propose a model capable of adaptively learning LR schedule from data. We specifically design a meta-learner with explicit mapping formulation to parameterize LR schedules, which can adjust LR adaptively to comply with current training dynamic by leveraging the information from past training histories. Image and text classification benchmark experiments substantiate the capability of our method for achieving proper LR schedules compared with baseline methods. Moreover, we transfer the learned LR schedule to other various tasks, like different training batch sizes, epochs, datasets, network architectures, especially large scale ImageNet dataset, showing its stronger generalization capability than related methods. Finally, guided by a small set of clean validation set, we show our method can achieve better generalization error when training data is biased with corrupted noise than baseline methods.

Motivation: Selecting feature genes and predicting cells' phenotype are typical tasks in the analysis of scRNA-seq data. Many algorithms were developed for these tasks, but high correlations among genes create challenges specifically in scRNA-seq analysis, which are not well addressed. Highly correlated genes lead to unreliable prediction models due to technical problems, such as multi-collinearity. Most importantly, when a causal gene (whose variants have a true biological effect on the phenotype) is highly correlated with other genes, most algorithms select one of them in a data-driven manner. The correlation structure among genes could change substantially. Hence, it is critical to build a prediction model based on causal genes. Results: To address the issues discussed above, we propose a grouping algorithm that can be integrated into prediction models. Using real benchmark scRNA-seq data and simulated cell phenotypes, we show our novel method significantly outperforms standard models in both prediction and feature selection. Our algorithm reports the whole group of correlated genes, allowing researchers to either use their common pattern as a more robust predictor or conduct follow-up studies to identify the causal genes in the group. Availability: An R package is being developed and will be available on the Comprehensive R Archive Network (CRAN) when the paper is published.

We develop Banach spaces for ReLU neural networks of finite depth $L$ and infinite width. The spaces contain all finite fully connected $L$-layer networks and their $L^2$-limiting objects under bounds on the natural path-norm. Under this norm, the unit ball in the space for $L$-layer networks has low Rademacher complexity and thus favorable generalization properties. Functions in these spaces can be approximated by multi-layer neural networks with dimension-independent convergence rates. The key to this work is a new way of representing functions in some form of expectations, motivated by multi-layer neural networks. This representation allows us to define a new class of continuous models for machine learning. We show that the gradient flow defined this way is the natural continuous analog of the gradient descent dynamics for the associated multi-layer neural networks. We show that the path-norm increases at most polynomially under this continuous gradient flow dynamics.

We study the problem of outlier robust high-dimensional mean estimation under a finite covariance assumption, and more broadly under finite low-degree moment assumptions. We consider a standard stability condition from the recent robust statistics literature and prove that, except with exponentially small failure probability, there exists a large fraction of the inliers satisfying this condition. As a corollary, it follows that a number of recently developed algorithms for robust mean estimation, including iterative filtering and non-convex gradient descent, give optimal error estimators with (near-)subgaussian rates. Previous analyses of these algorithms gave significantly suboptimal rates. As a corollary of our approach, we obtain the first computationally efficient algorithm with subgaussian rate for outlier-robust mean estimation in the strong contamination model under a finite covariance assumption.

In this paper we focus on the variable-selection peformance of solar on the empirical data with complicated dependence structures and, hence, severe multicollinearity and grouping effect issues. We choose the prostate cancer data and the Sydney house price data and apply two lasso solvers, elastic net and solar on them (code can be found at \url{https://github.com/isaac2math/}). The results shows that (i) lasso is affected by the grouping effect and randomly drop variables with high correlations, resulting unreliable and uninterpretable results; (ii) elastic net is more robust to grouping effect; however, it completely lose variable-selection sparsity when the dependence structure of the data is complicated; (iii) solar demonstrates its superior robustness to complicated dependence structures and grouping effect, returning variable-selection results with better stability and sparsity. Also, such stability and sparsity make solar a reliable variable pre-estimation filter of a linear dependence structure esimation (linear probablistic graph learning). The linear probablistic graph estimated on the variable selected by solar returns an intuitive, sparse and stable dependence structure.

Systems that are based on recursive Bayesian updates for classification limit the cost of evidence collection through certain stopping/termination criteria and accordingly enforce decision making. Conventionally, two termination criteria based on pre-defined thresholds over (i) the maximum of the state posterior distribution; and (ii) the state posterior uncertainty are commonly used. In this paper, we propose a geometric interpretation over the state posterior progression and accordingly we provide a point-by-point analysis over the disadvantages of using such conventional termination criteria. For example, through the proposed geometric interpretation we show that confidence thresholds defined over maximum of the state posteriors suffer from stiffness that results in unnecessary evidence collection whereas uncertainty based thresholding methods are fragile to number of categories and terminate prematurely if some state candidates are already discovered to be unfavorable. Moreover, both types of termination methods neglect the evolution of posterior updates. We then propose a new stopping/termination criterion with a geometrical insight to overcome the limitations of these conventional methods and provide a comparison in terms of decision accuracy and speed. We validate our claims using simulations and using real experimental data obtained through a brain computer interfaced typing system.