This paper presents a novel data-driven strategy to choose the hyperparameter $k$ in the $k$-NN regression estimator. We treat the problem of choosing the hyperparameter as an iterative procedure (over $k$) and propose using an easily implemented in practice strategy based on the idea of early stopping and the minimum discrepancy principle. This estimation strategy is proven to be minimax optimal, under the fixed-design assumption on covariates, over different smoothness function classes, for instance, the Lipschitz functions class on a bounded domain. After that, the novel strategy shows consistent simulations results on artificial and real-world data sets in comparison to other model selection strategies such as the Hold-out method.

Incipient anomalies present milder symptoms compared to severe ones, and are more difficult to detect and diagnose due to their close resemblance to normal operating conditions. The lack of incipient anomaly examples in the training data can pose severe risks to anomaly detection methods that are built upon Machine Learning (ML) techniques, because these anomalies can be easily mistaken as normal operating conditions. To address this challenge, we propose to utilize the uncertainty information available from ensemble learning to identify potential misclassified incipient anomalies. We show in this paper that ensemble learning methods can give improved performance on incipient anomalies and identify common pitfalls in these models through extensive experiments on two real-world datasets. Then, we discuss how to design more effective ensemble models for detecting incipient anomalies.

Inspired by the fruit-fly olfactory circuit, the Fly Bloom Filter [Dasgupta et al., 2018] is able to efficiently summarize the data with a single pass and has been used for novelty detection. We propose a new classifier (for binary and multi-class classification) that effectively encodes the different local neighborhoods for each class with a per-class Fly Bloom Filter. The inference on test data requires an efficient {\tt FlyHash} [Dasgupta, et al., 2017] operation followed by a high-dimensional, but {\em sparse}, dot product with the per-class Bloom Filters. The learning is trivially parallelizable. On the theoretical side, we establish conditions under which the prediction of our proposed classifier on any test example agrees with the prediction of the nearest neighbor classifier with high probability. We extensively evaluate our proposed scheme with over $50$ data sets of varied data dimensionality to demonstrate that the predictive performance of our proposed neuroscience inspired classifier is competitive the the nearest-neighbor classifiers and other single-pass classifiers.

In recent years, one of the major challenges for financial institutions is the retention of their customers using new methodologies of reliable and profitable segmentation. In the field of banking, the approach of offering all of the services to all the existing customers at the same time does not always work. However, being aware of what to sell, when to sell and whom to sell makes a huge difference in the conversion rate of the customers responding to new services and buying new products. In this paper, we used RFM technique and various clustering algorithms applied to the real customer data of one of the largest private banks of Azerbaijan.

In this paper, we propose a flexible model for survival analysis using neural networks along with scalable optimization algorithms. One key technical challenge for directly applying maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) to censored data is that evaluating the objective function and its gradients with respect to model parameters requires the calculation of integrals. To address this challenge, we recognize that the MLE for censored data can be viewed as a differential-equation constrained optimization problem, a novel perspective. Following this connection, we model the distribution of event time through an ordinary differential equation and utilize efficient ODE solvers and adjoint sensitivity analysis to numerically evaluate the likelihood and the gradients. Using this approach, we are able to 1) provide a broad family of continuous-time survival distributions without strong structural assumptions, 2) obtain powerful feature representations using neural networks, and 3) allow efficient estimation of the model in large-scale applications using stochastic gradient descent. Through both simulation studies and real-world data examples, we demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method in comparison to existing state-of-the-art deep learning survival analysis models.

Nonparametric supervised learning algorithms represent a succinct class of supervised learning algorithms where the learning parameters are highly flexible and whose values are directly dependent on the size of the training data. In this paper, we comparatively study the properties of four nonparametric algorithms, K-Nearest Neighbours (KNNs), Support Vector Machines (SVMs), Decision trees and Random forests. The supervised learning task is a regression estimate of the time lapse in medical insurance reimbursement. Our study is concerned precisely with how well each of the nonparametric regression models fits the training data. We quantify the goodness of fit using the R-squared metric. The results are presented with a focus on the effect of the size of the training data, the feature space dimension and hyperparameter optimization. The findings suggest k-NN's and SVM's algorithms as better models in predicting welldefined output labels (i.e,

Quantum computers can be used for supervised learning by treating parametrised quantum circuits as models that map data inputs to predictions. While a lot of work has been done to investigate practical implications of this approach, many important theoretical properties of these models remain unknown. Here we investigate how the strategy with which data is encoded into the model influences the expressive power of parametrised quantum circuits as function approximators. We show that one can naturally write a quantum model as a partial Fourier series in the data, where the accessible frequencies are determined by the nature of the data encoding gates in the circuit. By repeating simple data encoding gates multiple times, quantum models can access increasingly rich frequency spectra. We show that there exist quantum models which can realise all possible sets of Fourier coefficients, and therefore, if the accessible frequency spectrum is asymptotically rich enough, such models are universal function approximators.

We introduce an efficient framework for computing the distance between collider events using the tools of Linearized Optimal Transport (LOT). This preserves many of the advantages of the recently-introduced Energy Mover's Distance, which quantifies the "work" required to rearrange one event into another, while significantly reducing the computational cost. It also furnishes a Euclidean embedding amenable to simple machine learning algorithms and visualization techniques, which we demonstrate in a variety of jet tagging examples. The LOT approximation lowers the threshold for diverse applications of the theory of optimal transport to collider physics.

In conducting non-linear dimensionality reduction and feature learning, it is common to suppose that the data lie near a lower-dimensional manifold. A class of model-based approaches for such problems includes latent variables in an unknown non-linear regression function; this includes Gaussian process latent variable models and variational auto-encoders (VAEs) as special cases. VAEs are artificial neural networks (ANNs) that employ approximations to make computation tractable; however, current implementations lack adequate uncertainty quantification in estimating the parameters, predictive densities, and lower-dimensional subspace, and can be unstable and lack interpretability in practice. We attempt to solve these problems by deploying Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling algorithms (MCMC) for Bayesian inference in ANN models with latent variables. We address issues of identifiability by imposing constraints on the ANN parameters as well as by using anchor points. This is demonstrated on simulated and real data examples. We find that current MCMC sampling schemes face fundamental challenges in neural networks involving latent variables, motivating new research directions.

Machine Learning (ML) algorithms have been successfully employed by a vast range of practitioners with different backgrounds. One of the reasons for ML popularity is the capability to consistently delivers accurate results, which can be further boosted by adjusting hyperparameters (HP). However, part of practitioners has limited knowledge about the algorithms and does not take advantage of suitable HP settings. In general, HP values are defined by trial and error, tuning, or by using default values. Trial and error is very subjective, time costly and dependent on the user experience. Tuning techniques search for HP values able to maximize the predictive performance of induced models for a given dataset, but with the drawback of a high computational cost and target specificity. To avoid tuning costs, practitioners use default values suggested by the algorithm developer or by tools implementing the algorithm. Although default values usually result in models with acceptable predictive performance, different implementations of the same algorithm can suggest distinct default values. To maintain a balance between tuning and using default values, we propose a strategy to generate new optimized default values. Our approach is grounded on a small set of optimized values able to obtain predictive performance values better than default settings provided by popular tools. The HP candidates are estimated through a pool of promising values tuned from a small and informative set of datasets. After performing a large experiment and a careful analysis of the results, we concluded that our approach delivers better default values. Besides, it leads to competitive solutions when compared with the use of tuned values, being easier to use and having a lower cost.Based on our results, we also extracted simple rules to guide practitioners in deciding whether using our new methodology or a tuning approach.