Risk assessment algorithms have been correctly criticized for potential unfairness, and there is an active cottage industry trying to make repairs. In this paper, we adopt a framework from conformal prediction sets to remove unfairness from risk algorithms themselves and the covariates used for forecasting. From a sample of 300,000 offenders at their arraignments, we construct a confusion table and its derived measures of fairness that are effectively free any meaningful differences between Black and White offenders. We also produce fair forecasts for individual offenders coupled with valid probability guarantees that the forecasted outcome is the true outcome. We see our work as a demonstration of concept for application in a wide variety of criminal justice decisions. The procedures provided can be routinely implemented in jurisdictions with the usual criminal justice datasets used by administrators. The requisite procedures can be found in the scripting software R. However, whether stakeholders will accept our approach as a means to achieve risk assessment fairness is unknown. There also are legal issues that would need to be resolved although we offer a Pareto improvement.

SVM with an RBF kernel is usually one of the best classification algorithms for most data sets, but it is important to tune the two hyperparameters $C$ and $\gamma$ to the data itself. In general, the selection of the hyperparameters is a non-convex optimization problem and thus many algorithms have been proposed to solve it, among them: grid search, random search, Bayesian optimization, simulated annealing, particle swarm optimization, Nelder Mead, and others. There have also been proposals to decouple the selection of $\gamma$ and $C$. We empirically compare 18 of these proposed search algorithms (with different parameterizations for a total of 47 combinations) on 115 real-life binary data sets. We find (among other things) that trees of Parzen estimators and particle swarm optimization select better hyperparameters with only a slight increase in computation time with respect to a grid search with the same number of evaluations. We also find that spending too much computational effort searching the hyperparameters will not likely result in better performance for future data and that there are no significant differences among the different procedures to select the best set of hyperparameters when more than one is found by the search algorithms.

We investigate cross-lingual sentiment analysis, which has attracted significant attention due to its applications in various areas including market research, politics and social sciences. In particular, we introduce a sentiment analysis framework in multi-label setting as it obeys Plutchik wheel of emotions. We introduce a novel dynamic weighting method that balances the contribution from each class during training, unlike previous static weighting methods that assign non-changing weights based on their class frequency. Moreover, we adapt the focal loss that favors harder instances from single-label object recognition literature to our multi-label setting. Furthermore, we derive a method to choose optimal class-specific thresholds that maximize the macro-f1 score in linear time complexity. Through an extensive set of experiments, we show that our method obtains the state-of-the-art performance in 7 of 9 metrics in 3 different languages using a single model compared to the common baselines and the best-performing methods in the SemEval competition. We publicly share our code for our model, which can perform sentiment analysis in 100 languages, to facilitate further research.

Predictive modeling based on genomic data has gained popularity in biomedical research and clinical practice by allowing researchers and clinicians to identify biomarkers and tailor treatment decisions more efficiently. Analysis incorporating pathway information can boost discovery power and better connect new findings with biological mechanisms. In this article, we propose a general framework, Pathway-based Kernel Boosting (PKB), which incorporates clinical information and prior knowledge about pathways for prediction of binary, continuous and survival outcomes. We introduce appropriate loss functions and optimization procedures for different outcome types. Our prediction algorithm incorporates pathway knowledge by constructing kernel function spaces from the pathways and use them as base learners in the boosting procedure. Through extensive simulations and case studies in drug response and cancer survival datasets, we demonstrate that PKB can substantially outperform other competing methods, better identify biological pathways related to drug response and patient survival, and provide novel insights into cancer pathogenesis and treatment response.

Survival Analysis and Reliability Theory are concerned with the analysis of time-to-event data, in which observations correspond to waiting times until an event of interest such as death from a particular disease or failure of a component in a mechanical system. This type of data is unique due to the presence of censoring, a type of missing data that occurs when we do not observe the actual time of the event of interest but, instead, we have access to an approximation for it given by random interval in which the observation is known to belong. Most traditional methods are not designed to deal with censoring, and thus we need to adapt them to censored time-to-event data. In this paper, we focus on non-parametric goodness-of-fit testing procedures based on combining the Stein's method and kernelized discrepancies. While for uncensored data, there is a natural way of implementing a kernelized Stein discrepancy test, for censored data there are several options, each of them with different advantages and disadvantages. In this paper, we propose a collection of kernelized Stein discrepancy tests for time-to-event data, and we study each of them theoretically and empirically; our experimental results show that our proposed methods perform better than existing tests, including previous tests based on a kernelized maximum mean discrepancy.

We describe an alternative learning method for neural networks, which we call Blind Descent. By design, Blind Descent does not face problems like exploding or vanishing gradients. In Blind Descent, gradients are not used to guide the learning process. In this paper, we present Blind Descent as a more fundamental learning process compared to gradient descent. We also show that gradient descent can be seen as a specific case of the Blind Descent algorithm. We also train two neural network architectures, a multilayer perceptron and a convolutional neural network, using the most general Blind Descent algorithm to demonstrate a proof of concept.

Generalized linear models (GLMs) extend linear regression by generating the dependent variables through a nonlinear function of a predictor in a Reproducing Kernel Hilbert Space. Despite nonconvexity of the underlying optimization problem, the GLM-tron algorithm of Kakade et al. (2011) provably learns GLMs with guarantees of computational and statistical efficiency. We present an extension of the GLM-tron to a mirror descent or natural gradient-like setting, which we call the Reflectron. The Reflectron enjoys the same statistical guarantees as the GLM-tron for any choice of potential function $\psi$. We show that $\psi$ can be used to exploit the underlying optimization geometry and improve statistical guarantees, or to define an optimization geometry and thereby implicitly regularize the model. The implicit bias of the algorithm can be used to impose advantageous -- such as sparsity-promoting -- priors on the learned weights. Our results extend to the case of multiple outputs with or without weight sharing, and we further show that the Reflectron can be used for online learning of GLMs in the realizable or bounded noise settings. We primarily perform our analysis in continuous-time, leading to simple derivations. We subsequently prove matching guarantees for a discrete implementation. We supplement our theoretical analysis with simulations on real and synthetic datasets demonstrating the validity of our theoretical results.

We study why overparameterization -- increasing model size well beyond the point of zero training error -- can hurt test error on minority groups despite improving average test error when there are spurious correlations in the data. Through simulations and experiments on two image datasets, we identify two key properties of the training data that drive this behavior: the proportions of majority versus minority groups, and the signal-to-noise ratio of the spurious correlations. We then analyze a linear setting and theoretically show how the inductive bias of models towards "memorizing" fewer examples can cause overparameterization to hurt. Our analysis leads to a counterintuitive approach of subsampling the majority group, which empirically achieves low minority error in the overparameterized regime, even though the standard approach of upweighting the minority fails. Overall, our results suggest a tension between using overparameterized models versus using all the training data for achieving low worst-group error.

Support Vector Machines can be a lot slow to run on large datasets. With more data, the speedup increases proportionally which is great for use. Thundersvm also runs with support vector regression and a bunch more stuff. You can check out there github repo here. I have written an article on how to install and use thundersvm.

Precision medicine is a medical model, which proposes customization of the healthcare to a subgroup of patients, based on a genetics, lifestyle and environment. This technique allows doctors and researchers to prognosis treatment and prevention strategies for a specific disease which can work on a group of people. It is opposed to a one-size-fits-all approach, in which disease treatment and prevention techniques are advanced for the average individual with much less attention for the variations among individuals. There is an overlap between the terms "precision medication" and "personalized medicine." As per the National Research Council, "personalized medicine" is a traditional word with a meaning close to "precision medication."