We present a novel method for inferring ground-truth signal from multiple degraded signals, affected by different amounts of sensor "exposure". The algorithm learns a multiplicative degradation effect by performing iterative corrections of two signals solely from the ratio between them. The degradation function d should be continuous, satisfy monotonicity, and d(0) 1. We use smoothed monotonic regression method, where we easily incorporate the aforementioned criteria to the fitting part. We include theoretical analysis and prove convergence to the ground-truth signal for the noiseless measurement model. Lastly, we present an approach to fuse the noisy corrected signals using Gaussian processes. We use sparse Gaussian processes that can be utilized for a large number of measurements together with a specialized kernel that enables the estimation of noise values of all sensors. The data fusion framework naturally handles data gaps and provides a simple and powerful method for observing the signal trends on multiple timescales (long-term and short-term signal properties). The viability of correction method is evaluated on a synthetic dataset with known ground-truth signal.

We consider the problem of inferring the causal structure from observational data, especially when the structure is sparse. This type of problem is usually formulated as an inference of a directed acyclic graph (DAG) model. The linear non-Gaussian acyclic model (LiNGAM) is one of the most successful DAG models, and various estimation methods have been developed. However, existing methods are not efficient for some reasons: (i) the sparse structure is not always incorporated in causal order estimation, and (ii) the whole information of the data is not used in parameter estimation. To address {these issues}, we propose a new estimation method for a linear DAG model with non-Gaussian noises. The proposed method is based on the log-likelihood of independent component analysis (ICA) with two penalty terms related to the sparsity and the consistency condition. The proposed method enables us to estimate the causal order and the parameters simultaneously. For stable and efficient optimization, we propose some devices, such as a modified natural gradient. Numerical experiments show that the proposed method outperforms existing methods, including LiNGAM and NOTEARS.

Reconstructing parameters of physical models is an important task in science. Usually, such problems are severely under determined and sophisticated reconstruction techniques are necessary. Whereas classical regularisation methods focus on finding just the most desirable or most likely solution of an inverse problem, more recent methods focus on analyzing the complete distribution of possible parameters. In particular, this provides us with a way to quantify how trustworthy the obtained solution is. Among the most popular methods for uncertainty quantification are Bayesian methods [16], which build up on evaluating the posterior using Bayes theorem, and Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) [38].

Out-of-sample extension is an important task in various kernel based non-linear dimensionality reduction algorithms. In this paper, we derive a perturbation based extension framework by extending results from classical perturbation theory. We prove that our extension framework generalizes the well-known Nystr{\"o}m method as well as some of its variants. We provide an error analysis for our extension framework, and suggest new forms of extension under this framework that take advantage of the structure of the kernel matrix. We support our theoretical results numerically and demonstrate the advantages of our extension framework both on synthetic and real data.

Multiple Instance Learning (MIL) involves predicting a single label for a bag of instances, given positive or negative labels at bag-level, without accessing to label for each instance in the training phase. Since a positive bag contains both positive and negative instances, it is often required to detect positive instances (key instances) when a set of instances is categorized as a positive bag. The attention-based deep MIL model is a recent advance in both bag-level classification and key instance detection (KID). However, if the positive and negative instances in a positive bag are not clearly distinguishable, the attention-based deep MIL model has limited KID performance as the attention scores are skewed to few positive instances. In this paper, we present a method to improve the attention-based deep MIL model in the task of KID. The main idea is to use the neural network inversion to find which instances made contribution to the bag-level prediction produced by the trained MIL model. Moreover, we incorporate a sparseness constraint into the neural network inversion, leading to the sparse network inversion which is solved by the proximal gradient method. Numerical experiments on an MNIST-based image MIL dataset and two real-world histopathology datasets verify the validity of our method, demonstrating the KID performance is significantly improved while the performance of bag-level prediction is maintained.

The metro system is playing an increasingly important role in the urban public transit network, transferring a massive human flow across space everyday in the city. In recent years, extensive research studies have been conducted to improve the service quality of metro systems. Among them, crowd management has been a critical issue for both public transport agencies and train operators. In this paper, by utilizing accumulated smart card data, we propose a statistical model to predict in-situ passenger density, i.e., number of on-board passengers between any two neighbouring stations, inside a closed metro system. The proposed model performs two main tasks: i) forecasting time-dependent Origin-Destination (OD) matrix by applying mature statistical models; and ii) estimating the travel time cost required by different parts of the metro network via truncated normal mixture distributions with Expectation-Maximization (EM) algorithm. Based on the prediction results, we are able to provide accurate prediction of in-situ passenger density for a future time point. A case study using real smart card data in Singapore Mass Rapid Transit (MRT) system demonstrate the efficacy and efficiency of our proposed method.

Multivariate time series forecasting is widely used in various fields. Reasonable prediction results can assist people in planning and decision-making, generate benefits and avoid risks. Normally, there are two characteristics of time series, that is, long-term trend and short-term fluctuation. For example, stock prices will have a long-term upward trend with the market, but there may be a small decline in the short term. These two characteristics are often relatively independent of each other. However, the existing prediction methods often do not distinguish between them, which reduces the accuracy of the prediction model. In this paper, a MTS forecasting framework that can capture the long-term trends and short-term fluctuations of time series in parallel is proposed. This method uses the original time series and its first difference to characterize long-term trends and short-term fluctuations. Three prediction sub-networks are constructed to predict long-term trends, short-term fluctuations and the final value to be predicted. In the overall optimization goal, the idea of multi-task learning is used for reference, which is to make the prediction results of long-term trends and short-term fluctuations as close to the real values as possible while requiring to approximate the values to be predicted. In this way, the proposed method uses more supervision information and can more accurately capture the changing trend of the time series, thereby improving the forecasting performance.

More and more diseases have been found to be strongly correlated with disturbances in the microbiome constitution, e.g., obesity, diabetes, or some cancer types. Thanks to modern high-throughput omics technologies, it becomes possible to directly analyze human microbiome and its influence on the health status. Microbial communities are monitored over long periods of time and the associations between their members are explored. These relationships can be described by a time-evolving graph. In order to understand responses of the microbial community members to a distinct range of perturbations such as antibiotics exposure or diseases and general dynamical properties, the time-evolving graph of the human microbial communities has to be analyzed. This becomes especially challenging due to dozens of complex interactions among microbes and metastable dynamics. The key to solving this problem is the representation of the time-evolving graphs as fixed-length feature vectors preserving the original dynamics. We propose a method for learning the embedding of the time-evolving graph that is based on the spectral analysis of transfer operators and graph kernels. We demonstrate that our method can capture temporary changes in the time-evolving graph on both created synthetic data and real-world data. Our experiments demonstrate the efficacy of the method. Furthermore, we show that our method can be applied to human microbiome data to study dynamic processes.

We solve the problem of 6-DoF localisation and 3D dense reconstruction in spatial environments as approximate Bayesian inference in a deep generative approach which combines learned with engineered models. This principled treatment of uncertainty and probabilistic inference overcomes the shortcoming of current state-of-the-art solutions to rely on heavily engineered, heterogeneous pipelines. Variational inference enables us to use neural networks for system identification, while a differentiable raycaster is used for the emission model. This ensures that our model is amenable to end-to-end gradient-based optimisation. We evaluate our approach on realistic unmanned aerial vehicle flight data, nearing the performance of a state-of-the-art visual inertial odometry system. The applicability of the learned model to downstream tasks such as generative prediction and planning is investigated.

Combinatorial optimization plays an important role in real-world problem solving. In the big data era, the dimensionality of a combinatorial optimization problem is usually very large, which poses a significant challenge to existing solution methods. In this paper, we examine the generalization capability of a machine learning model for problem reduction on the classic travelling salesman problems (TSP). We demonstrate that our method can greedily remove decision variables from an optimization problem that are predicted not to be part of an optimal solution. More specifically, we investigate our model's capability to generalize on test instances that have not been seen during the training phase. We consider three scenarios where training and test instances are different in terms of: 1) problem characteristics; 2) problem sizes; and 3) problem types. Our experiments show that this machine learning based technique can generalize reasonably well over a wide range of TSP test instances with different characteristics or sizes. While the accuracy of predicting unused variables naturally deteriorates as a test instance is further away from the training set, we observe that even when tested on a different TSP problem variant, the machine learning model still makes useful predictions about which variables can be eliminated without significantly impacting solution quality.