In compressive learning, a mixture model (a set of centroids or a Gaussian mixture) is learned from a sketch vector, that serves as a highly compressed representation of the dataset. This requires solving a non-convex optimization problem, hence in practice approximate heuristics (such as CLOMPR) are used. In this work we explore, by numerical simulations, properties of this non-convex optimization landscape and those heuristics.

The dramatically growing availability of observational data is being witnessed in various domains of science and technology, which facilitates the study of causal inference. However, estimating treatment effects from observational data is faced with two major challenges, missing counterfactual outcomes and treatment selection bias. Matching methods are among the most widely used and fundamental approaches to estimating treatment effects, but existing matching methods have poor performance when facing data with high dimensional and complicated variables. We propose a feature selection representation matching (FSRM) method based on deep representation learning and matching, which maps the original covariate space into a selective, nonlinear, and balanced representation space, and then conducts matching in the learned representation space. FSRM adopts deep feature selection to minimize the influence of irrelevant variables for estimating treatment effects and incorporates a regularizer based on the Wasserstein distance to learn balanced representations. We evaluate the performance of our FSRM method on three datasets, and the results demonstrate superiority over the state-of-the-art methods.

Independent sociological polls are forbidden in Belarus. Online polls performed without sound scientific rigour do not yield representative results. Yet, both inside and outside Belarus it is of great importance to obtain precise estimates of the ratings of all candidates. These ratings could function as reliable proxies for the election's outcomes. We conduct an independent poll based on the combination of the data collected via Viber and on the streets of Belarus. The Viber and the street data samples consist of almost 45000 and 1150 unique observations respectively. Bayesian regressions with poststratification were build to estimate ratings of the candidates and rates of early voting turnout for the population as a whole and within various focus subgroups. We show that both the officially announced results of the election and early voting rates are highly improbable. With a probability of at least 95%, Sviatlana Tikhanouskaya's rating lies between 75% and 80%, whereas Aliaksandr Lukashenka's rating lies between 13% and 18% and early voting rate predicted by the method ranges from 9% to 13% of those who took part in the election. These results contradict the officially announced outcomes, which are 10.12%, 80.11%, and 49.54% respectively and lie far outside even the 99.9% credible intervals predicted by our model. The only marginal groups of people where the upper bounds of the 99.9% credible intervals of the rating of Lukashenka are above 50% are people older than 60 and uneducated people. For all other marginal subgroups, including rural residents, even the upper bounds of 99.9% credible intervals for Lukashenka are far below 50%. The same is true for the population as a whole. Thus, with a probability of at least 99.9% Lukashenka could not have had enough electoral support to win the 2020 presidential election in Belarus.

We study the problem of testing discrete distributions with a focus on the high probability regime. Specifically, given samples from one or more discrete distributions, a property $\mathcal{P}$, and parameters $0< \epsilon, \delta <1$, we want to distinguish {\em with probability at least $1-\delta$} whether these distributions satisfy $\mathcal{P}$ or are $\epsilon$-far from $\mathcal{P}$ in total variation distance. Most prior work in distribution testing studied the constant confidence case (corresponding to $\delta = \Omega(1)$), and provided sample-optimal testers for a range of properties. While one can always boost the confidence probability of any such tester by black-box amplification, this generic boosting method typically leads to sub-optimal sample bounds. Here we study the following broad question: For a given property $\mathcal{P}$, can we {\em characterize} the sample complexity of testing $\mathcal{P}$ as a function of all relevant problem parameters, including the error probability $\delta$? Prior to this work, uniformity testing was the only statistical task whose sample complexity had been characterized in this setting. As our main results, we provide the first algorithms for closeness and independence testing that are sample-optimal, within constant factors, as a function of all relevant parameters. We also show matching information-theoretic lower bounds on the sample complexity of these problems. Our techniques naturally extend to give optimal testers for related problems. To illustrate the generality of our methods, we give optimal algorithms for testing collections of distributions and testing closeness with unequal sized samples.

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has urged many governments in the world to enforce a strict lockdown where all nonessential businesses are closed and citizens are ordered to stay at home. One of the consequences of this policy is a significant change in electricity consumption patterns. Since load forecasting models rely on calendar or meteorological information and are trained on historical data, they fail to capture the significant break caused by the lockdown and have exhibited poor performances since the beginning of the pandemic. This makes the scheduling of the electricity production challenging, and has a high cost for both electricity producers and grid operators. In this paper we introduce adaptive generalized additive models using Kalman filters and fine-tuning to adjust to new electricity consumption patterns. Additionally, knowledge from the lockdown in Italy is transferred to anticipate the change of behavior in France. The proposed methods are applied to forecast the electricity demand during the French lockdown period, where they demonstrate their ability to significantly reduce prediction errors compared to traditional models. Finally expert aggregation is used to leverage the specificities of each predictions and enhance results even further.

In this paper, we propose a communication-efficiently decentralized machine learning framework that solves a consensus optimization problem defined over a network of inter-connected workers. The proposed algorithm, Censored-and-Quantized Generalized GADMM (CQ-GGADMM), leverages the novel worker grouping and decentralized learning ideas of Group Alternating Direction Method of Multipliers (GADMM), and pushes the frontier in communication efficiency by extending its applicability to generalized network topologies, while incorporating link censoring for negligible updates after quantization. We theoretically prove that CQ-GGADMM achieves the linear convergence rate when the local objective functions are strongly convex under some mild assumptions. Numerical simulations corroborate that CQ-GGADMM exhibits higher communication efficiency in terms of the number of communication rounds and transmit energy consumption without compromising the accuracy and convergence speed, compared to the benchmark schemes based on decentralized ADMM without censoring, quantization, and/or the worker grouping method of GADMM.

Differentiable neural computers extend artificial neural networks with an explicit memory without interference, thus enabling the model to perform classic computation tasks such as graph traversal. However, such models are difficult to train, requiring long training times and large datasets. In this work, we achieve some of the computational capabilities of differentiable neural computers with a model that can be trained extremely efficiently, namely an echo state network with an explicit memory without interference. This extension raises the computation power of echo state networks from strictly less than finite state machines to strictly more than finite state machines. Further, we demonstrate experimentally that our model performs comparably to its fully-trained deep version on several typical benchmark tasks for differentiable neural computers.

As a common method in Machine Learning, Ensemble Method is used to train multiple models from a data set and obtain better results through certain combination strategies. Stacking method, as representatives of Ensemble Learning methods, is often used in Machine Learning Competitions such as Kaggle. This paper proposes a variant of Stacking Model based on the idea of gcForest, namely Adaptive Generation Model (AGM). It means that the adaptive generation is performed not only in the horizontal direction to expand the width of each layer model, but also in the vertical direction to expand the depth of the model. For base models of AGM, they all come from preset basic Machine Learning Models. In addition, a feature augmentation method is added between layers to further improve the overall accuracy of the model. Finally, through comparative experiments on 7 data sets, the results show that the accuracy of AGM are better than its previous models.

We present a class of methods for federated learning, which we call Fed+, pronounced FedPlus. The class of methods encompasses and unifies a number of recent algorithms proposed for federated learning and permits easily defining many new algorithms. The principal advantage of this class of methods is to better accommodate the real-world characteristics found in federated learning training, such as the lack of IID data across the parties in the federation. We demonstrate the use and benefits of this class of algorithms on standard benchmark datasets and a challenging real-world problem where catastrophic failure has a serious impact, namely in financial portfolio management.

Much recent research has shed light on the development of the relation-dependent but content-independent framework for social spammer detection. This is largely because the relation among users is difficult to be altered when spammers attempt to conceal their malicious intents. Our study investigates the spammer detection problem in the context of multi-relation social networks, and makes an attempt to fully exploit the sequences of heterogeneous relations for enhancing the detection accuracy. Specifically, we present the Multi-level Dependency Model (MDM). The MDM is able to exploit user's long-term dependency hidden in their relational sequences along with short-term dependency. Moreover, MDM fully considers short-term relational sequences from the perspectives of individual-level and union-level, due to the fact that the type of short-term sequences is multi-folds. Experimental results on a real-world multi-relational social network demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposed MDM on multi-relational social spammer detection.