Health insurance companies cover half of the United States population through commercial employer-sponsored health plans and pay 1.2 trillion US dollars every year to cover medical expenses for their members. The actuary and underwriter roles at a health insurance company serve to assess which risks to take on and how to price those risks to ensure profitability of the organization. While Bayesian hierarchical models are the current standard in the industry to estimate risk, interest in machine learning as a way to improve upon these existing methods is increasing. Lumiata, a healthcare analytics company, ran a study with a large health insurance company in the United States. We evaluated the ability of machine learning models to predict the per member per month cost of employer groups in their next renewal period, especially those groups who will cost less than 95\% of what an actuarial model predicts (groups with "concession opportunities"). We developed a sequence of two models, an individual patient-level and an employer-group-level model, to predict the annual per member per month allowed amount for employer groups, based on a population of 14 million patients. Our models performed 20\% better than the insurance carrier's existing pricing model, and identified 84\% of the concession opportunities. This study demonstrates the application of a machine learning system to compute an accurate and fair price for health insurance products and analyzes how explainable machine learning models can exceed actuarial models' predictive accuracy while maintaining interpretability.

We consider a distributed empirical risk minimization (ERM) optimization problem with communication efficiency and privacy requirements, motivated by the federated learning (FL) framework. Unique challenges to the traditional ERM problem in the context of FL include (i) need to provide privacy guarantees on clients' data, (ii) compress the communication between clients and the server, since clients might have low-bandwidth links, (iii) work with a dynamic client population at each round of communication between the server and the clients, as a small fraction of clients are sampled at each round. To address these challenges we develop (optimal) communication-efficient schemes for private mean estimation for several $\ell_p$ spaces, enabling efficient gradient aggregation for each iteration of the optimization solution of the ERM. We also provide lower and upper bounds for mean estimation with privacy and communication constraints for arbitrary $\ell_p$ spaces. To get the overall communication, privacy, and optimization performance operation point, we combine this with privacy amplification opportunities inherent to this setup. Our solution takes advantage of the inherent privacy amplification provided by client sampling and data sampling at each client (through Stochastic Gradient Descent) as well as the recently developed privacy framework using anonymization, which effectively presents to the server responses that are randomly shuffled with respect to the clients. Putting these together, we demonstrate that one can get the same privacy, optimization-performance operating point developed in recent methods that use full-precision communication, but at a much lower communication cost, i.e., effectively getting communication efficiency for "free".

Increasing users' positive interactions, such as purchases or clicks, is an important objective of recommender systems. Recommenders typically aim to select items that users will interact with. If the recommended items are purchased, an increase in sales is expected. However, the items could have been purchased even without recommendation. Thus, we want to recommend items that results in purchases caused by recommendation. This can be formulated as a ranking problem in terms of the causal effect. Despite its importance, this problem has not been well explored in the related research. It is challenging because the ground truth of causal effect is unobservable, and estimating the causal effect is prone to the bias arising from currently deployed recommenders. This paper proposes an unbiased learning framework for the causal effect of recommendation. Based on the inverse propensity scoring technique, the proposed framework first constructs unbiased estimators for ranking metrics. Then, it conducts empirical risk minimization on the estimators with propensity capping, which reduces variance under finite training samples. Based on the framework, we develop an unbiased learning method for the causal effect extension of a ranking metric. We theoretically analyze the unbiasedness of the proposed method and empirically demonstrate that the proposed method outperforms other biased learning methods in various settings.

Alzheimer's Dementia (AD) is an incurable, debilitating, and progressive neurodegenerative condition that affects cognitive function. Early diagnosis is important as therapeutics can delay progression and give those diagnosed vital time. Developing models that analyse spontaneous speech could eventually provide an efficient diagnostic modality for earlier diagnosis of AD. The Alzheimer's Dementia Recognition through Spontaneous Speech task offers acoustically pre-processed and balanced datasets for the classification and prediction of AD and associated phenotypes through the modelling of spontaneous speech. We exclusively analyse the supplied textual transcripts of the spontaneous speech dataset, building and comparing performance across numerous models for the classification of AD vs controls and the prediction of Mental Mini State Exam scores. We rigorously train and evaluate Support Vector Machines (SVMs), Gradient Boosting Decision Trees (GBDT), and Conditional Random Fields (CRFs) alongside deep learning Transformer based models. We find our top performing models to be a simple Term Frequency-Inverse Document Frequency (TF-IDF) vectoriser as input into a SVM model and a pre-trained Transformer based model `DistilBERT' when used as an embedding layer into simple linear models. We demonstrate test set scores of 0.81-0.82 across classification metrics and a RMSE of 4.58.

Artificial intelligence nowadays plays an increasingly prominent role in our life since decisions that were once made by humans are now delegated to automated systems. A machine learning algorithm trained based on biased data, however, tends to make unfair predictions. Developing classification algorithms that are fair with respect to protected attributes of the data thus becomes an important problem. Motivated by concerns surrounding the fairness effects of sharing and few-shot machine learning tools, such as the Model Agnostic Meta-Learning framework, we propose a novel fair fast-adapted few-shot meta-learning approach that efficiently mitigates biases during meta-train by ensuring controlling the decision boundary covariance that between the protected variable and the signed distance from the feature vectors to the decision boundary. Through extensive experiments on two real-world image benchmarks over three state-of-the-art meta-learning algorithms, we empirically demonstrate that our proposed approach efficiently mitigates biases on model output and generalizes both accuracy and fairness to unseen tasks with a limited amount of training samples.

Electronic health records (EHRs) are longitudinal records of a patient's interactions with healthcare systems. A patient's EHR data is organized as a three-level hierarchy from top to bottom: patient journey - all the experiences of diagnoses and treatments over a period of time; individual visit - a set of medical codes in a particular visit; and medical code - a specific record in the form of medical codes. As EHRs begin to amass in millions, the potential benefits, which these data might hold for medical research and medical outcome prediction, are staggering - including, for example, predicting future admissions to hospitals, diagnosing illnesses or determining the efficacy of medical treatments. Each of these analytics tasks requires a domain knowledge extraction method to transform the hierarchical patient journey into a vector representation for further prediction procedure. The representations should embed a sequence of visits and a set of medical codes with a specific timestamp, which are crucial to any downstream prediction tasks. Hence, expressively powerful representations are appealing to boost learning performance. To this end, we propose a novel self-attention mechanism that captures the contextual dependency and temporal relationships within a patient's healthcare journey. An end-to-end bidirectional temporal encoder network (BiteNet) then learns representations of the patient's journeys, based solely on the proposed attention mechanism. We have evaluated the effectiveness of our methods on two supervised prediction and two unsupervised clustering tasks with a real-world EHR dataset. The empirical results demonstrate the proposed BiteNet model produces higher-quality representations than state-of-the-art baseline methods.

The use of machine learning (ML) in health care raises numerous ethical concerns, especially as models can amplify existing health inequities. Here, we outline ethical considerations for equitable ML in the advancement of health care. Specifically, we frame ethics of ML in health care through the lens of social justice. We describe ongoing efforts and outline challenges in a proposed pipeline of ethical ML in health, ranging from problem selection to post-deployment considerations. We close by summarizing recommendations to address these challenges.

This book covers the building blocks of the most common methods in machine learning. This set of methods is like a toolbox for machine learning engineers. Those entering the field of machine learning should feel comfortable with this toolbox, so they have the right tool for a variety of tasks. In other words, each chapter focuses on a single tool within the ML toolbox. In my experience, the best way to become comfortable with these methods is to see them derived from scratch, both in theory and in code.

This course material is aimed at people who are already familiar with ... What you'll learn This course is about the fundamental concepts of machine learning, facusing on neural networks. This topic is getting very hot nowadays because these learning algorithms can be used in several fields from software engineering to investment banking. Learning algorithms can recognize patterns which can help detect cancer for example. We may construct algorithms that can have a very good guess about stock prices movement in the market.

Clustering is a technique to find natural groups in the data. If we show the above picture to a kid, he can identify that there are four types of animals. He may not know the names of all of them, but he can still identify that there are four different types and he can do this independently, without the help of an adult. As we don't need an adult to supervise, clustering is an unsupervised technique. The three motivations can be listed as follows.