Time series analysis and forecasting is one of the key fields in statistical programming. Due to modern technology the amount of available data grows substantially from day to day. They also know that decisions based on data gained in the past, and modeled for the future, can make a huge difference. Proper understanding and training in time series analysis and forecasting will give you the power to understand and create those models. This can make you an invaluable asset for your company/institution and will boost your career!

Here we are importing all libraries numpy for numerical analysis, pandas for data frame handling, datetime for date & time columns, adfuller, acf, pacf for time series statistical tools, rcParams for figure dimension sizes. Import the data and read it with read_csv. It is a kind of univariate dataset. To read the month alone columns we use head for a view of first 5 rows. We are trying here that all the data points are collected on every 15th of every month.

This work presents a mathematical treatment of the relation between Self-Organizing Maps (SOMs) and Gaussian Mixture Models (GMMs). We show that energy-based SOM models can be interpreted as performing gradient descent, minimizing an approximation to the GMM log-likelihood that is particularly valid for high data dimensionalities. The SOM-like decrease of the neighborhood radius can be understood as an annealing procedure ensuring that gradient descent does not get stuck in undesirable local minima. This link allows to treat SOMs as generative probabilistic models, giving a formal justification for using SOMs, e.g., to detect outliers, or for sampling.

As per the records of theWorld Health Organization, the first formally reported incidence of Zika virus occurred in Brazil in May 2015. The disease then rapidly spread to other countries in Americas and East Asia, affecting more than 1,000,000 people. Zika virus is primarily transmitted through bites of infected mosquitoes of the species Aedes (Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus). The abundance of mosquitoes and, as a result, the prevalence of Zika virus infections are common in areas which have high precipitation, high temperature, and high population density.Nonlinear spatio-temporal dependency of such data and lack of historical public health records make prediction of the virus spread particularly challenging. In this article, we enhance Zika forecasting by introducing the concepts of topological data analysis and, specifically, persistent homology of atmospheric variables, into the virus spread modeling. The topological summaries allow for capturing higher order dependencies among atmospheric variables that otherwise might be unassessable via conventional spatio-temporal modeling approaches based on geographical proximity assessed via Euclidean distance. We introduce a new concept of cumulative Betti numbers and then integrate the cumulative Betti numbers as topological descriptors into three predictive machine learning models: random forest, generalized boosted regression, and deep neural network. Furthermore, to better quantify for various sources of uncertainties, we combine the resulting individual model forecasts into an ensemble of the Zika spread predictions using Bayesian model averaging. The proposed methodology is illustrated in application to forecasting of the Zika space-time spread in Brazil in the year 2018.

Linear discriminant analysis (LDA) is a popular technique to learn the most discriminative features for multi-class classification. A vast majority of existing LDA algorithms are prone to be dominated by the class with very large deviation from the others, i.e., edge class, which occurs frequently in multi-class classification. First, the existence of edge classes often makes the total mean biased in the calculation of between-class scatter matrix. Second, the exploitation of l2-norm based between-class distance criterion magnifies the extremely large distance corresponding to edge class. In this regard, a novel self-weighted robust LDA with l21-norm based pairwise between-class distance criterion, called SWRLDA, is proposed for multi-class classification especially with edge classes. SWRLDA can automatically avoid the optimal mean calculation and simultaneously learn adaptive weights for each class pair without setting any additional parameter. An efficient re-weighted algorithm is exploited to derive the global optimum of the challenging l21-norm maximization problem. The proposed SWRLDA is easy to implement, and converges fast in practice. Extensive experiments demonstrate that SWRLDA performs favorably against other compared methods on both synthetic and real-world datasets, while presenting superior computational efficiency in comparison with other techniques.

In the realms of computer vision, it is evident that deep neural networks perform better in a supervised setting with a large amount of labeled data. The representations learned with supervision are not only of high quality but also helps the model in enhancing its accuracy. However, the collection and annotation of a large dataset are costly and time-consuming. To avoid the same, there has been a lot of research going on in the field of unsupervised visual representation learning especially in a self-supervised setting. Amongst the recent advancements in self-supervised methods for visual recognition, in SimCLR Chen et al. shows that good quality representations can indeed be learned without explicit supervision. In SimCLR, the authors maximize the similarity of augmentations of the same image and minimize the similarity of augmentations of different images. A linear classifier trained with the representations learned using this approach yields 76.5% top-1 accuracy on the ImageNet ILSVRC-2012 dataset. In this work, we propose that, with the normalized temperature-scaled cross-entropy (NT-Xent) loss function (as used in SimCLR), it is beneficial to not have images of the same category in the same batch. In an unsupervised setting, the information of images pertaining to the same category is missing. We use the latent space representation of a denoising autoencoder trained on the unlabeled dataset and cluster them with k-means to obtain pseudo labels. With this apriori information we batch images, where no two images from the same category are to be found. We report comparable performance enhancements on the CIFAR10 dataset and a subset of the ImageNet dataset. We refer to our method as G-SimCLR.

Multivariate time series (MTS) regression tasks are common in many real-world data mining applications including finance, cybersecurity, energy, healthcare, prognostics, and many others. Due to the tremendous success of deep learning (DL) algorithms in various domains including image recognition and computer vision, researchers started adopting these techniques for solving MTS data mining problems, many of which are targeted for safety-critical and cost-critical applications. Unfortunately, DL algorithms are known for their susceptibility to adversarial examples which also makes the DL regression models for MTS forecasting also vulnerable to those attacks. To the best of our knowledge, no previous work has explored the vulnerability of DL MTS regression models to adversarial time series examples, which is an important step, specifically when the forecasting from such models is used in safety-critical and cost-critical applications. In this work, we leverage existing adversarial attack generation techniques from the image classification domain and craft adversarial multivariate time series examples for three state-of-the-art deep learning regression models, specifically Convolutional Neural Network (CNN), Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), and Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU). We evaluate our study using Google stock and household power consumption dataset. The obtained results show that all the evaluated DL regression models are vulnerable to adversarial attacks, transferable, and thus can lead to catastrophic consequences in safety-critical and cost-critical domains, such as energy and finance.

We consider an approach for community detection in time-varying networks. At its core, this approach maintains a small sketch graph to capture the essential community structure found in each snapshot of the full network. We demonstrate how the sketch can be used to explicitly identify six key community events which typically occur during network evolution: growth, shrinkage, merging, splitting, birth and death. Based on these detection techniques, we formulate a community detection algorithm which can process a network concurrently exhibiting all processes. One advantage afforded by the sketch-based algorithm is the efficient handling of large networks. Whereas detecting events in the full graph may be computationally expensive, the small size of the sketch allows changes to be quickly assessed. A second advantage occurs in networks containing clusters of disproportionate size. The sketch is constructed such that there is equal representation of each cluster, thus reducing the possibility that the small clusters are lost in the estimate. We present a new standardized benchmark based on the stochastic block model which models the addition and deletion of nodes, as well as the birth and death of communities. When coupled with existing benchmarks, this new benchmark provides a comprehensive suite of tests encompassing all six community events. We provide a set of numerical results demonstrating the advantages of our approach both in run time and in the handling of small clusters.

Natural policy gradient (NPG) methods are among the most widely used policy optimization algorithms in contemporary reinforcement learning. This class of methods is often applied in conjunction with entropy regularization -- an algorithmic scheme that encourages exploration -- and is closely related to soft policy iteration and trust region policy optimization. Despite the empirical success, the theoretical underpinnings for NPG methods remain limited even for the tabular setting. This paper develops $\textit{non-asymptotic}$ convergence guarantees for entropy-regularized NPG methods under softmax parameterization, focusing on discounted Markov decision processes (MDPs). Assuming access to exact policy evaluation, we demonstrate that the algorithm converges linearly -- or even quadratically once it enters a local region around the optimal policy -- when computing optimal value functions of the regularized MDP. Moreover, the algorithm is provably stable vis-\`a-vis inexactness of policy evaluation. Our convergence results accommodate a wide range of learning rates, and shed light upon the role of entropy regularization in enabling fast convergence.

Stochastic gradient descent (SGD) is often applied to train Deep Neural Networks (DNNs), and research efforts have been devoted to investigate the convergent dynamics of SGD and minima found by SGD. The influencing factors identified in the literature include learning rate, batch size, Hessian, and gradient covariance, and stochastic differential equations are used to model SGD and establish the relationships among these factors for characterizing minima found by SGD. It has been found that the ratio of batch size to learning rate is a main factor in highlighting the underlying SGD dynamics; however, the influence of other important factors such as the Hessian and gradient covariance is not entirely agreed upon. This paper describes the factors and relationships in the recent literature and presents numerical findings on the relationships. In particular, it confirms the four-factor and general relationship results obtained in Wang (2019), while the three-factor and associated relationship results found in Jastrz\c{e}bski et al. (2018) may not hold beyond the considered special case.