The recent global outbreak of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) has spread to all corners of the globe. The international travel ban, panic buying, and the need for self-quarantine are among the many other social challenges brought about in this new era. Twitter platforms have been used in various public health studies to identify public opinion about an event at the local and global scale. To understand the public concerns and responses to the pandemic, a system that can leverage machine learning techniques to filter out irrelevant tweets and identify the important topics of discussion on social media platforms like Twitter is needed. In this study, we constructed a system to identify the relevant tweets related to the COVID-19 pandemic throughout January 1st, 2020 to April 30th, 2020, and explored topic modeling to identify the most discussed topics and themes during this period in our data set. Additionally, we analyzed the temporal changes in the topics with respect to the events that occurred during this pandemic. We found out that eight topics were sufficient to identify the themes in our corpus. These topics depicted a temporal trend. The dominant topics vary over time and align with the events related to the COVID-19 pandemic.

Kernelized Gram matrix $W$ constructed from data points $\{x_i\}_{i=1}^N$ as $W_{ij}= k_0( \frac{ \| x_i - x_j \|^2} {\sigma^2} ) $ is widely used in graph-based geometric data analysis and unsupervised learning. An important question is how to choose the kernel bandwidth $\sigma$, and a common practice called self-tuned kernel adaptively sets a $\sigma_i$ at each point $x_i$ by the $k$-nearest neighbor (kNN) distance. When $x_i$'s are sampled from a $d$-dimensional manifold embedded in a possibly high-dimensional space, unlike with fixed-bandwidth kernels, theoretical results of graph Laplacian convergence with self-tuned kernels, however, have been incomplete. This paper proves the convergence of graph Laplacian operator $L_N$ to manifold (weighted-)Laplacian for a new family of kNN self-tuned kernels $W^{(\alpha)}_{ij} = k_0( \frac{ \| x_i - x_j \|^2}{ \epsilon \hat{\rho}(x_i) \hat{\rho}(x_j)})/\hat{\rho}(x_i)^\alpha \hat{\rho}(x_j)^\alpha$, where $\hat{\rho}$ is the estimated bandwidth function {by kNN}, and the limiting operator is also parametrized by $\alpha$. When $\alpha = 1$, the limiting operator is the weighted manifold Laplacian $\Delta_p$. Specifically, we prove the pointwise convergence of $L_N f $ and convergence of the graph Dirichlet form with rates. Our analysis is based on first establishing a $C^0$ consistency for $\hat{\rho}$ which bounds the relative estimation error $|\hat{\rho} - \bar{\rho}|/\bar{\rho}$ uniformly with high probability, where $\bar{\rho} = p^{-1/d}$, and $p$ is the data density function. Our theoretical results reveal the advantage of self-tuned kernel over fixed-bandwidth kernel via smaller variance error in low-density regions. In the algorithm, no prior knowledge of $d$ or data density is needed. The theoretical results are supported by numerical experiments.

This paper addresses the problem of optimizing partition functions in a stochastic learning setting. We propose a stochastic variant of the bound majorization algorithm from [29] that relies on upperbounding the partition function with a quadratic surrogate. The update of the proposed method, that we refer to as Stochastic Partition Function Bound (SPFB), resembles scaled stochastic gradient descent where the scaling factor relies on a second order term that is however different from the Hessian. Similarly to quasi-Newton schemes, this term is constructed using the stochastic approximation of the value of the function and its gradient. We prove sub-linear convergence rate of the proposed method and show the construction of its low-rank variant (LSPFB). Experiments on logistic regression demonstrate that the proposed schemes significantly outperform SGD. We also discuss how to use quadratic partition function bound for efficient training of deep learning models and in non-convex optimization.

Expectation maximization (EM) is the default algorithm for fitting probabilistic models with missing or latent variables, yet we lack a full understanding of its non-asymptotic convergence properties. Previous works show results along the lines of "EM converges at least as fast as gradient descent" by assuming the conditions for the convergence of gradient descent apply to EM. This approach is not only loose, in that it does not capture that EM can make more progress than a gradient step, but the assumptions fail to hold for textbook examples of EM like Gaussian mixtures. In this work we first show that for the common setting of exponential family distributions, viewing EM as a mirror descent algorithm leads to convergence rates in Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergence. Then, we show how the KL divergence is related to first-order stationarity via Bregman divergences. In contrast to previous works, the analysis is invariant to the choice of parametrization and holds with minimal assumptions. We also show applications of these ideas to local linear (and superlinear) convergence rates, generalized EM, and non-exponential family distributions.

We propose an $L_{2}$-based penalization algorithm for functional linear regression models, where the coefficient function is shrunk towards a data-driven shape template $\gamma$, which is constrained to belong to a class of piecewise functions by restricting its basis expansion. In particular, we focus on the case where $\gamma$ can be expressed as a sum of $q$ rectangles that are adaptively positioned with respect to the regression error. As the problem of finding the optimal knot placement of a piecewise function is nonconvex, the proposed parametrization allows to reduce the number of variables in the global optimization scheme, resulting in a fitting algorithm that alternates between approximating a suitable template and solving a convex ridge-like problem. The predictive power and interpretability of our method is shown on multiple simulations and two real world case studies.

This paper introduces the problem of coresets for regression problems to panel data settings. We first define coresets for several variants of regression problems with panel data and then present efficient algorithms to construct coresets of size that depend polynomially on 1/$\varepsilon$ (where $\varepsilon$ is the error parameter) and the number of regression parameters - independent of the number of individuals in the panel data or the time units each individual is observed for. Our approach is based on the Feldman-Langberg framework in which a key step is to upper bound the "total sensitivity" that is roughly the sum of maximum influences of all individual-time pairs taken over all possible choices of regression parameters. Empirically, we assess our approach with synthetic and real-world datasets; the coreset sizes constructed using our approach are much smaller than the full dataset and coresets indeed accelerate the running time of computing the regression objective.

This paper is a tutorial and literature review on sampling algorithms. We have two main types of sampling in statistics. The first type is survey sampling which draws samples from a set or population. The second type is sampling from probability distribution where we have a probability density or mass function. In this paper, we cover both types of sampling. First, we review some required background on mean squared error, variance, bias, maximum likelihood estimation, Bernoulli, Binomial, and Hypergeometric distributions, the Horvitz-Thompson estimator, and the Markov property. Then, we explain the theory of simple random sampling, bootstrapping, stratified sampling, and cluster sampling. We also briefly introduce multistage sampling, network sampling, and snowball sampling. Afterwards, we switch to sampling from distribution. We explain sampling from cumulative distribution function, Monte Carlo approximation, simple Monte Carlo methods, and Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods. For simple Monte Carlo methods, whose iterations are independent, we cover importance sampling and rejection sampling. For MCMC methods, we cover Metropolis algorithm, Metropolis-Hastings algorithm, Gibbs sampling, and slice sampling. Then, we explain the random walk behaviour of Monte Carlo methods and more efficient Monte Carlo methods, including Hamiltonian (or hybrid) Monte Carlo, Adler's overrelaxation, and ordered overrelaxation. Finally, we summarize the characteristics, pros, and cons of sampling methods compared to each other. This paper can be useful for different fields of statistics, machine learning, reinforcement learning, and computational physics.

We introduce c-lasso, a Python package that enables sparse and robust linear regression and classification with linear equality constraints. The underlying statistical forward model is assumed to be of the following form: \[ y = X \beta + \sigma \epsilon \qquad \textrm{subject to} \qquad C\beta=0 \] Here, $X \in \mathbb{R}^{n\times d}$is a given design matrix and the vector $y \in \mathbb{R}^{n}$ is a continuous or binary response vector. The matrix $C$ is a general constraint matrix. The vector $\beta \in \mathbb{R}^{d}$ contains the unknown coefficients and $\sigma$ an unknown scale. Prominent use cases are (sparse) log-contrast regression with compositional data $X$, requiring the constraint $1_d^T \beta = 0$ (Aitchion and Bacon-Shone 1984) and the Generalized Lasso which is a special case of the described problem (see, e.g, (James, Paulson, and Rusmevichientong 2020), Example 3). The c-lasso package provides estimators for inferring unknown coefficients and scale (i.e., perspective M-estimators (Combettes and M\"uller 2020a)) of the form \[ \min_{\beta \in \mathbb{R}^d, \sigma \in \mathbb{R}_{0}} f\left(X\beta - y,{\sigma} \right) + \lambda \left\lVert \beta\right\rVert_1 \qquad \textrm{subject to} \qquad C\beta = 0 \] for several convex loss functions $f(\cdot,\cdot)$. This includes the constrained Lasso, the constrained scaled Lasso, and sparse Huber M-estimators with linear equality constraints.

Classical and exceptional Lie algebras and their representations are among the most important tools in the analysis of symmetry in physical systems. In this letter we show how the computation of tensor products and branching rules of irreducible representations are machine-learnable, and can achieve relative speed-ups of orders of magnitude in comparison to the non-ML algorithms.

Dynamic assessment of mortality risk in the intensive care unit (ICU) can be used to stratify patients, inform about treatment effectiveness or serve as part of an early-warning system. Static risk scoring systems, such as APACHE or SAPS, have recently been supplemented with data-driven approaches that track the dynamic mortality risk over time. Recent works have focused on enhancing the information delivered to clinicians even further by producing full survival distributions instead of point predictions or fixed horizon risks. In this work, we propose a non-parametric ensemble model, Weighted Resolution Survival Ensemble (WRSE), tailored to estimate such dynamic individual survival distributions. Inspired by the simplicity and robustness of ensemble methods, the proposed approach combines a set of binary classifiers spaced according to a decay function reflecting the relevance of short-term mortality predictions. Models and baselines are evaluated under weighted calibration and discrimination metrics for individual survival distributions which closely reflect the utility of a model in ICU practice. We show competitive results with state-of-the-art probabilistic models, while greatly reducing training time by factors of 2-9x.