Electricity load forecasting enables the grid operators to optimally implement the smart grid's most essential features such as demand response and energy efficiency. Electricity demand profiles can vary drastically from one region to another on diurnal, seasonal and yearly scale. Hence to devise a load forecasting technique that can yield the best estimates on diverse datasets, specially when the training data is limited, is a big challenge. This paper presents a deep learning architecture for short-term load forecasting based on bidirectional sequential models in conjunction with feature engineering that extracts the hand-crafted derived features in order to aid the model for better learning and predictions. In the proposed architecture, named as Deep Derived Feature Fusion (DeepDeFF), the raw input and hand-crafted features are trained at separate levels and then their respective outputs are combined to make the final prediction. The efficacy of the proposed methodology is evaluated on datasets from five countries with completely different patterns. The results demonstrate that the proposed technique is superior to the existing state of the art.

Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms are commonly used for their versatility in sampling from complicated probability distributions. However, as the dimension of the distribution gets larger, the computational costs for a satisfactory exploration of the sampling space become challenging. Adaptive MCMC methods employing a choice of proposal distribution can address this issue speeding up the convergence. In this paper we show an alternative way of performing adaptive MCMC, by using the outcome of Bayesian Neural Networks as the initial proposal for the Markov Chain. This combined approach increases the acceptance rate in the Metropolis-Hasting algorithm and accelerate the convergence of the MCMC while reaching the same final accuracy. Finally, we demonstrate the main advantages of this approach by constraining the cosmological parameters directly from Cosmic Microwave Background maps.

Acquiring commonsense knowledge and reasoning is recognized as an important frontier in achieving general Artificial Intelligence (AI). Recent research in the Natural Language Processing (NLP) community has demonstrated significant progress in this problem setting. Despite this progress, which is mainly on multiple-choice question answering tasks in limited settings, there is still a lack of understanding (especially at scale) of the nature of commonsense knowledge itself. In this paper, we propose and conduct a systematic study to enable a deeper understanding of commonsense knowledge by doing an empirical and structural analysis of the ConceptNet knowledge base. ConceptNet is a freely available knowledge base containing millions of commonsense assertions presented in natural language. Detailed experimental results on three carefully designed research questions, using state-of-the-art unsupervised graph representation learning ('embedding') and clustering techniques, reveal deep substructures in ConceptNet relations, allowing us to make data-driven and computational claims about the meaning of phenomena such as 'context' that are traditionally discussed only in qualitative terms. Furthermore, our methodology provides a case study in how to use data-science and computational methodologies for understanding the nature of an everyday (yet complex) psychological phenomenon that is an essential feature of human intelligence.

While deep learning has achieved phenomenal successes in many AI applications, its enormous model size and intensive computation requirements pose a formidable challenge to the deployment in resource-limited nodes. There has recently been an increasing interest in computationally-efficient learning methods, e.g., quantization, pruning and channel gating. However, most existing techniques cannot adapt to different tasks quickly. In this work, we advocate a holistic approach to jointly train the backbone network and the channel gating which enables dynamical selection of a subset of filters for more efficient local computation given the data input. Particularly, we develop a federated meta-learning approach to jointly learn good meta-initializations for both backbone networks and gating modules, by making use of the model similarity across learning tasks on different nodes. In this way, the learnt meta-gating module effectively captures the important filters of a good meta-backbone network, based on which a task-specific conditional channel gated network can be quickly adapted, i.e., through one-step gradient descent, from the meta-initializations in a two-stage procedure using new samples of that task. The convergence of the proposed federated meta-learning algorithm is established under mild conditions. Experimental results corroborate the effectiveness of our method in comparison to related work.

We introduce a novel procedure for obtaining cross-validated predictive estimates for Bayesian hierarchical regression models (BHRMs). Bayesian hierarchical models are popular for their ability to model complex dependence structures and provide probabilistic uncertainty estimates, but can be computationally expensive to run. Cross-validation (CV) is therefore not a common practice to evaluate the predictive performance of BHRMs. Our method circumvents the need to re-run computationally costly estimation methods for each cross-validation fold and makes CV more feasible for large BHRMs. By conditioning on the variance-covariance parameters, we shift the CV problem from probability-based sampling to a simple and familiar optimization problem. In many cases, this produces estimates which are equivalent to full CV. We provide theoretical results and demonstrate its efficacy on publicly available data and in simulations.

Recent research on graph embedding has achieved success in various applications. Most graph embedding methods preserve the proximity in a graph into a manifold in an embedding space. We argue an important but neglected problem about this proximity-preserving strategy: Graph topology patterns, while preserved well into an embedding manifold by preserving proximity, may distort in the ambient embedding Euclidean space, and hence to detect them becomes difficult for machine learning models. To address the problem, we propose curvature regularization, to enforce flatness for embedding manifolds, thereby preventing the distortion. We present a novel angle-based sectional curvature, termed ABS curvature, and accordingly three kinds of curvature regularization to induce flat embedding manifolds during graph embedding. We integrate curvature regularization into five popular proximity-preserving embedding methods, and empirical results in two applications show significant improvements on a wide range of open graph datasets.

There are many scenarios such as the electronic health records where the outcome is much more difficult to collect than the covariates. In this paper, we consider the linear regression problem with such a data structure under the high dimensionality. Our goal is to investigate when and how the unlabeled data can be exploited to improve the estimation and inference of the regression parameters in linear models, especially in light of the fact that such linear models may be misspecified in data analysis. In particular, we address the following two important questions. (1) Can we use the labeled data as well as the unlabeled data to construct a semi-supervised estimator such that its convergence rate is faster than the supervised estimators? (2) Can we construct confidence intervals or hypothesis tests that are guaranteed to be more efficient or powerful than the supervised estimators? To address the first question, we establish the minimax lower bound for parameter estimation in the semi-supervised setting. We show that the upper bound from the supervised estimators that only use the labeled data cannot attain this lower bound. We close this gap by proposing a new semi-supervised estimator which attains the lower bound. To address the second question, based on our proposed semi-supervised estimator, we propose two additional estimators for semi-supervised inference, the efficient estimator and the safe estimator. The former is fully efficient if the unknown conditional mean function is estimated consistently, but may not be more efficient than the supervised approach otherwise. The latter usually does not aim to provide fully efficient inference, but is guaranteed to be no worse than the supervised approach, no matter whether the linear model is correctly specified or the conditional mean function is consistently estimated.

This paper considers the multi-agent distributed linear least-squares problem. The system comprises multiple agents, each agent with a locally observed set of data points, and a common server with whom the agents can interact. The agents' goal is to compute a linear model that best fits the collective data points observed by all the agents. In the server-based distributed settings, the server cannot access the data points held by the agents. The recently proposed Iteratively Pre-conditioned Gradient-descent (IPG) method has been shown to converge faster than other existing distributed algorithms that solve this problem. In the IPG algorithm, the server and the agents perform numerous iterative computations. Each of these iterations relies on the entire batch of data points observed by the agents for updating the current estimate of the solution. Here, we extend the idea of iterative pre-conditioning to the stochastic settings, where the server updates the estimate and the iterative pre-conditioning matrix based on a single randomly selected data point at every iteration. We show that our proposed Iteratively Pre-conditioned Stochastic Gradient-descent (IPSG) method converges linearly in expectation to a proximity of the solution. Importantly, we empirically show that the proposed IPSG method's convergence rate compares favorably to prominent stochastic algorithms for solving the linear least-squares problem in server-based networks.

KNN is the most commonly used and one of the simplest algorithms for finding patterns in classification and regression problems. It is an unsupervised algorithm and also known as lazy learning algorithm. It works by calculating the distance of 1 test observation from all the observation of the training dataset and then finding K nearest neighbors of it. This happens for each and every test observation and that is how it finds similarities in the data. For calculating distances KNN uses a distance metric from the list of available metrics.

Preview this course - GET COUPON CODE Learn why and where K-Means is a powerful tool Clustering is a very important part of machine learning. Especially unsupervised machine learning is a rising topic in the whole field of artificial intelligence. If we want to learn about cluster analysis, there is no better method to start with, than the k-means algorithm. Unlike other courses, it offers NOT ONLY the guided demonstrations of the R-scripts but also covers theoretical background that will allow you to FULLY UNDERSTAND & APPLY UNSUPERVISED MACHINE LEARNING (K-means) in R. Get a good intuition of the algorithm The K-Means algorithm is explained in detail. We will first cover the principle mechanics without any mathematical formulas, just by visually observing data points and clustering behavior.