The Expectation Maximization (EM) algorithm is of key importance for inference in latent variable models including mixture of regressors and experts, missing observations. This paper introduces a novel EM algorithm, called \texttt{SPIDER-EM}, for inference from a training set of size $n$, $n \gg 1$. At the core of our algorithm is an estimator of the full conditional expectation in the {\sf E}-step, adapted from the stochastic path-integrated differential estimator ({\tt SPIDER}) technique. We derive finite-time complexity bounds for smooth non-convex likelihood: we show that for convergence to an $\epsilon$-approximate stationary point, the complexity scales as $K_{\operatorname{Opt}} (n,\epsilon )={\cal O}(\epsilon^{-1})$ and $K_{\operatorname{CE}}( n,\epsilon ) = n+ \sqrt{n} {\cal O}(\epsilon^{-1} )$, where $K_{\operatorname{Opt}}( n,\epsilon )$ and $K_{\operatorname{CE}}(n, \epsilon )$ are respectively the number of {\sf M}-steps and the number of per-sample conditional expectations evaluations. This improves over the state-of-the-art algorithms. Numerical results support our findings.

Deep learning's successes are often attributed to its ability to automatically discover new representations of the data, rather than relying on handcrafted features like other learning methods. We show, however, that deep networks learned by the standard gradient descent algorithm are in fact mathematically approximately equivalent to kernel machines, a learning method that simply memorizes the data and uses it directly for prediction via a similarity function (the kernel). This greatly enhances the interpretability of deep network weights, by elucidating that they are effectively a superposition of the training examples. The network architecture incorporates knowledge of the target function into the kernel. This improved understanding should lead to better learning algorithms.

Contagion maps exploit activation times in threshold contagions to assign vectors in high-dimensional Euclidean space to the nodes of a network. A point cloud that is the image of a contagion map reflects both the structure underlying the network and the spreading behaviour of the contagion on it. Intuitively, such a point cloud exhibits features of the network's underlying structure if the contagion spreads along that structure, an observation which suggests contagion maps as a viable manifold-learning technique. We test contagion maps as a manifold-learning tool on a number of different real-world and synthetic data sets, and we compare their performance to that of Isomap, one of the most well-known manifold-learning algorithms. We find that, under certain conditions, contagion maps are able to reliably detect underlying manifold structure in noisy data, while Isomap fails due to noise-induced error. This consolidates contagion maps as a technique for manifold learning.

There are many different causal effect estimators in causal inference. However, it is unclear how to choose between these estimators because there is no ground-truth for causal effects. A commonly used option is to simulate synthetic data, where the ground-truth is known. However, the best causal estimators on synthetic data are unlikely to be the best causal estimators on realistic data. An ideal benchmark for causal estimators would both (a) yield ground-truth values of the causal effects and (b) be representative of real data. Using flexible generative models, we provide a benchmark that both yields ground-truth and is realistic. Using this benchmark, we evaluate 66 different causal estimators.

Running a reliability analysis on engineering problems involving complex numerical models can be computationally very expensive, requiring advanced simulation methods to reduce the overall numerical cost. Gaussian process based active learning methods for reliability analysis have emerged as a promising way for reducing this computational cost. The learning phase of these methods consists in building a Gaussian process surrogate model of the performance function and using the uncertainty structure of the Gaussian process to enrich iteratively this surrogate model. For that purpose a learning criterion has to be defined. Then, the estimation of the probability of failure is typically obtained by a classification of a population evaluated on the final surrogate model. Hence, the estimator of the probability of failure holds two different uncertainty sources related to the surrogate model approximation and to the sampling based integration technique. In this paper, we propose a methodology to quantify the sensitivity of the probability of failure estimator to both uncertainty sources. This analysis also enables to control the whole error associated to the failure probability estimate and thus provides an accuracy criterion on the estimation. Thus, an active learning approach integrating this analysis to reduce the main source of error and stopping when the global variability is sufficiently low is introduced. The approach is proposed for both a Monte Carlo based method as well as an importance sampling based method, seeking to improve the estimation of rare event probabilities. Performance of the proposed strategy is then assessed on several examples.

Load forecasting is crucial for multiple energy management tasks such as scheduling generation capacity, planning supply and demand, and minimizing energy trade costs. Such relevance has increased even more in recent years due to the integration of renewable energies, electric cars, and microgrids. Conventional load forecasting techniques obtain single-value load forecasts by exploiting consumption patterns of past load demand. However, such techniques cannot assess intrinsic uncertainties in load demand, and cannot capture dynamic changes in consumption patterns. To address these problems, this paper presents a method for probabilistic load forecasting based on the adaptive online learning of hidden Markov models. We propose learning and forecasting techniques with theoretical guarantees, and experimentally assess their performance in multiple scenarios. In particular, we develop adaptive online learning techniques that update model parameters recursively, and sequential prediction techniques that obtain probabilistic forecasts using the most recent parameters. The performance of the method is evaluated using multiple datasets corresponding with regions that have different sizes and display assorted time-varying consumption patterns. The results show that the proposed method can significantly improve the performance of existing techniques for a wide range of scenarios.

Predicting future states or actions of a given system remains a fundamental, yet unsolved challenge of intelligence, especially in the scope of complex and non-deterministic scenarios, such as modeling behavior of humans. Existing approaches provide results under strong assumptions concerning unimodality of future states, or, at best, assuming specific probability distributions that often poorly fit to real-life conditions. In this work we introduce a robust and flexible probabilistic framework that allows to model future predictions with virtually no constrains regarding the modality or underlying probability distribution. To achieve this goal, we leverage a hypernetwork architecture and train a continuous normalizing flow model. The resulting method dubbed RegFlow achieves state-of-the-art results on several benchmark datasets, outperforming competing approaches by a significant margin.

In this work, we study the trade-off between differential privacy and adversarial robustness under L2-perturbations in the context of learning halfspaces. We prove nearly tight bounds on the sample complexity of robust private learning of halfspaces for a large regime of parameters. A highlight of our results is that robust and private learning is harder than robust or private learning alone. We complement our theoretical analysis with experimental results on the MNIST and USPS datasets, for a learning algorithm that is both differentially private and adversarially robust.

Blending is an ensemble machine learning algorithm. It is a colloquial name for stacked generalization or stacking ensemble where instead of fitting the meta-model on out-of-fold predictions made by the base model, it is fit on predictions made on a holdout dataset. Blending was used to describe stacking models that combined many hundreds of predictive models by competitors in the $1M Netflix machine learning competition, and as such, remains a popular technique and name for stacking in competitive machine learning circles, such as the Kaggle community. In this tutorial, you will discover how to develop and evaluate a blending ensemble in python. Blending Ensemble Machine Learning With Python Photo by Nathalie, some rights reserved. Blending is an ensemble machine learning technique that uses a machine learning model to learn how to best combine the predictions from multiple contributing ensemble member models.

In this blog, we are going to discuss the most important algorithm in machine learning and deep learning Linear Regression. "In Linear Regression Our Main Task is to find the best fitted line" As we see on the plot above that the best-fitted line on the data points is L0. There can be more best-fitted lines on the data points like l1, and l2, etc. then the question is, how do we find the best-fitted line above all of them?? We calculate the distance of the line from each point in the graph then find the MSE. After that, whichever line gives us the minimum error, we choose that line as our best-fitted line. In the plot below, we are measuring the distance of L0 From all the points and then just finding the error and comparing it with other lines.